Flash Flood Warning 46, NWS San Angelo, TX

000 
WGUS74 KSJT 160002
FFSSJT

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
701 PM CDT TUE MAY 15 2007

TXC049-059-083-160011-
CALLAHAN TX-COLEMAN TX-BROWN TX-
701 PM CDT TUE MAY 15 2007

...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING HAS BEEN CANCELLED FOR NORTHWESTERN
BROWN...NORTHERN COLEMAN AND SOUTHERN CALLAHAN COUNTIES...

THE HEAVY RAIN HAS ENDED ACROSS THE AREA.

LAT...LON 3216 9964 3199 9965 3181 9920 3193 9898
      3209 9912 3215 9915 3224 9921 3234 9943
      3237 9963

$$

21

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
330 PM CDT TUE MAY 15 2007

.SHORT TERM...
COLD FRONT HAS CLEARED THE BIG COUNTRY THIS AFTERNOON AND HAS
JUST REACHED A SAN ANGELO TO CROSS PLAINS LINE. THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT NOTED ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AS IT MOVED SOUTH OF
ABILENE WITH A REPORT OF A LAND SPOUT NEAR BUFFALO GAP JUST AFTER
NOON...WITH VERY HEAVY RAIN IN THE AREA SINCE THEN. GOOD CHANCE OF
FURTHER DEVELOPMENT LATER THIS AFTERNOON AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
CONTINUES TO MOVE SOUTH WITH THE BEST CHANCE ALONG AND JUST NORTH
OF THE BOUNDARY.

NATIONALLY...BROAD UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF
OF THE NATION WITH AN UPPER RIDGE AXIS ALONG THE SPINE OF THE
ROCKIES. 850MB HIGH WILL BUILD INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK WITH THE BEST MOISTURE ON ITS SOUTHERN
AND WESTERN PERIPHERY ACROSS WEST TEXAS AND NORTH INTO NEW MEXICO.
MODELS SHOWING SOME UPPER DISTURBANCES IN THE BASE OF THE WESTERN
RIDGE OVER NEW MEXICO WHICH WILL KEEP THE CHANCE OF RAINFALL
PRIMARILY WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA...WILL KEEP A CHANCE OF
RAINFALL OVER OUR WESTERN COUNTIES AT LEAST TROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK.

.LONG TERM...
MODELS HAVE UPPER DISTURBANCES MOVING EAST IN THE FLOW ALOFT THIS
WEEKEND AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN IN ADVANCE
OF THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM. GIVEN INHERENT UNCERTAINTY OF THE
STRENGTH...LOCATION AND TIMING ASSOCIATED WITH ANY UPPER WAVE
ACTION...HAVE LEFT THE FORECAST DRY. THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM
SHOULD AFFECT THE AREA BEGINNING MIDWEEK AS THE NEXT FRONTAL
BOUNDARY MOVES INTO NORTHERN TEXAS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ABILENE 	 57  71  52  68 /  30  20  30  20
SAN ANGELO 	 59  74  54  70 /  30  30  30  30
JUNCTION 	 61  79  57  74 /  30  30  20  30

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

99/15

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
232 PM CDT TUE MAY 15 2007

TXZ049-054-064>066-071>073-076>078-098-099-113-114-127-128-139-
140-154-155-168>170-161945-
FISHER-NOLAN-STERLING-COKE-RUNNELS-IRION-TOM GREEN-CONCHO-
CROCKETT-SCHLEICHER-SUTTON-HASKELL-THROCKMORTON-JONES-SHACKELFORD-
TAYLOR-CALLAHAN-COLEMAN-BROWN-MCCULLOCH-SAN SABA-MENARD-KIMBLE-
MASON-
232 PM CDT TUE MAY 15 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF WEST CENTRAL
TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER...LOOK FOR
THUNDERSTORMS TO CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT ACROSS WEST
CENTRAL TEXAS. SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS MAY PRODUCE BRIEF HEAVY
RAINFALL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER...THE
POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS MOST OF WEST
CENTRAL TEXAS THROUGH THE END OF THIS WEEK.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED.

23/HUBER