Flash Flood Warning 20, NWS San Angelo, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
350 PM CDT SUN MAY 6 2007

.SHORT TERM...
FIRST OF ALL...TORNADO WATCH ISSUED EARLIER AND AFTERNOON PRODUCTS
WERE SENT WITH THE MENTION OF THE WATCH INCLUDED. WEAK SURFACE LOW
HAS HELPED PUSH A WEAK PACIFIC FRONT INTO THE AREA...EXTENDING
ROUGHLY FROM CHILDRESS TO SWEETWATER TO SANDERSON. HAVE HAD A FEW
SEVERE STORMS ACROSS NOLAN COUNTY...AND THE TOWERING CU CONTINUES
TO TRY TO DEVELOP DOWN THE LINE INTO CROCKETT COUNTY...BUT STILL
FIGHTING A WEAK CAP AT THIS POINT. STILL SEVERAL HOURS BEFORE MAX
HEATING...SO GETTING STORMS TO DEVELOP FURTHER SOUTH STILL LOOKS
REASONABLE. FLOW IS GENERALLY TO THE NORTH NORTHEAST SO STORMS
WILL NOT COME EAST VERY QUICKLY...BUT STORMS WILL NOT GET INTO THE
EASTERN COUNTIES UNTIL WELL INTO THE EVENING...AT THE EARLIEST.

BOUNDARY MAY SHIFT A BACK TO THE WEST SOMEWHAT TONIGHT...AND THEN
THE BIG QUESTIONS BEGIN. MODELS KEEP THE BOUNDARY JUST TO THE
NORTHWEST OF THE AREA INTO MONDAY...AND THEN PUSH INTO WEST
CENTRAL TEXAS BY MONDAY NIGHT OR TUESDAY. GIVEN THE HIGH
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES PRESENT...HEAVY RAINFALL ALONG AND
NORTHWEST OF THE BOUNDARY SEEMS A GOOD BET. HOWEVER...IF ENOUGH
CONVECTION DEVELOP NORTH OF THE FRONT...BOUNDARY WILL SAG MUCH
FARTHER SOUTH THAN THE MODELS INDICATE. WITH THIS MIND...WILL
CONTINUE TO INCLUDE A MENTION OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND WILL
CONTINUE THE SPS.

.LONG TERM...
SYSTEM FINALLY GETS OUT BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT OR THURSDAY MORNING.
WILL DISCOUNT THE KINDA ODD MCS THE GFS DEVELOPS FRIDAY AND FRIDAY
NIGHT JUST TO THE EAST OF MY AREA FOR NOW AND CONTINUE TO MONITOR
FOR CONTINUITY. OTHERWISE...LOOKS DRY FOR NOW.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ABILENE 	 68  79  64  80 /  50  60  60  50
SAN ANGELO 	 65  81  65  82 /  40  60  60  40
JUNCTION 	 72  84  68  81 /  30  30  40  40

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

07

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
125 PM CDT SUN MAY 6 2007

TXZ049-054-064>066-071>073-076>078-098-099-113-114-127-128-139-
140-154-155-168>170-071830-
FISHER-NOLAN-STERLING-COKE-RUNNELS-IRION-TOM GREEN-CONCHO-
CROCKETT-SCHLEICHER-SUTTON-HASKELL-THROCKMORTON-JONES-SHACKELFORD-
TAYLOR-CALLAHAN-COLEMAN-BROWN-MCCULLOCH-SAN SABA-MENARD-KIMBLE-
MASON-
125 PM CDT SUN MAY 6 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF WEST CENTRAL
TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

THERE IS A CHANCE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP ACROSS MOST
OF WEST CENTRAL TEXAS THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. HOWEVER...THE BEST CHANCE
FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE MAINLY ALONG AND WEST OF A LINE
FROM JUNCTION...TO BRADY...TO COLEMAN. THE MAIN THREATS WILL BE LARGE
HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. HOWEVER...ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE
AS WELL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

AN UPPER-LEVEL STORM SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN
UNITED STATES THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK...BEFORE MOVING
INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS BY MID WEEK. THUS...EXPECT THE THREAT
OF SEVERE WEATHER TO LINGER ACROSS WEST CENTRAL TEXAS WELL INTO
NEXT WEEK. ALONG WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS...HEAVY
RAINFALL MAY PRODUCE FLASH FLOODING.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WE MAY NEED TO ACTIVATE SPOTTERS DURING THE AFTERNOON OR EVENING
FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
1125 AM CDT SUN MAY 6 2007

TXZ049-054-064>066-071>073-076>078-098-099-113-114-127-128-139-
140-154-155-168>170-071000-
FISHER-NOLAN-STERLING-COKE-RUNNELS-IRION-TOM GREEN-CONCHO-
CROCKETT-SCHLEICHER-SUTTON-HASKELL-THROCKMORTON-JONES-SHACKELFORD-
TAYLOR-CALLAHAN-COLEMAN-BROWN-MCCULLOCH-SAN SABA-MENARD-KIMBLE-
MASON-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ROTAN...ROBY...SWEETWATER...
STERLING CITY...ROBERT LEE...BRONTE...BALLINGER...WINTERS...
MERTZON...SAN ANGELO...EDEN...OZONA...ELDORADO...SONORA...
HASKELL...THROCKMORTON...WOODSON...STAMFORD...ANSON...HAMLIN...
ALBANY...ABILENE...CLYDE...BAIRD...CROSS PLAINS...COLEMAN...
BROWNWOOD...BRADY...SAN SABA...MENARD...JUNCTION...MASON
549 AM CDT SUN MAY 6 2007

...HEAVY RAIN THREAT...AND THE POSSIBILITY OF SEVERE WEATHER
...CONTINUES ACROSS WEST CENTRAL TEXAS THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

A PERSISTENT UPPER-LEVEL STORM SYSTEM WILL REMAIN ALMOST
STATIONARY OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES DURING THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS. THIS SYSTEM...INTERACTING WITH SURFACE BOUNDARIES
...MAY INITIATE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS WEST CENTRAL TEXAS TODAY...WITH
SEVERAL ROUNDS OF THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THROUGH MID WEEK. ANY OF
THESE STORMS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL OF PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL. HOWEVER...THE MOST LIKELY TIME FRAME FOR THE HEAVIER
RAINFALL WILL PROBABLY START ON MONDAY...AND CONTINUE THROUGH
WEDNESDAY MORNING.

BY THE TIME THE SYSTEM FINALLY PUSHES AWAY FROM THE AREA...SOME
LOCATIONS OF WEST CENTRAL TEXAS MAY SEE RAINFALL TOTALS IN EXCESS OF
3 INCHES. THE HEAVIER RAINFALL WILL LIKELY FOCUS ALONG THE SURFACE
BOUNDARIES...BUT GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY ON WHERE THESE BOUNDARIES
WILL END UP ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY...IT REMAINS UNKNOWN ON WHAT
PORTIONS OF WEST CENTRAL TEXAS MAY END UP SEEING THE HIGHER TOTALS.

DESPITE THE DRY CONDITIONS OF THE LAST FEW DAYS...AREA SOILS REMAIN
WET AND NEARLY SATURATED. IT WILL NOT TAKE MUCH ADDITIONAL RAINFALL
TO PRODUCE RAPID RISES ON AREA CREEKS AND STREAMS.

IN ADDITION TO THE HEAVY RAINFALL...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP
ACROSS WEST CENTRAL TEXAS THROUGH MID WEEK. EXPECT THE MAIN THREATS
TO BE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. HOWEVER...ISOLATED TORNADOES
ARE ALSO POSSIBLE.

WE STRONGLY ENCOURAGE EVERYONE ACROSS WEST CENTRAL TEXAS TO
CLOSELY MONITOR LOCAL TELEVISION STATIONS...RADIO STATIONS...OR
NOAA WEATHER RADIO ALL HAZARDS FOR THE LATEST UPDATES ON THIS
DEVELOPING WEATHER SITUATION.

07

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
421 PM CDT SUN MAY 6 2007

TXZ064-071-072-062215-
STERLING TX-TOM GREEN TX-IRION TX-
421 PM CDT SUN MAY 6 2007

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT EFFECTIVE UNTIL 515 PM CDT FOR
STERLING...TOM GREEN AND IRION COUNTIES...

AT 418 PM CDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS INDICATED BY NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR 12 MILES SOUTHWEST OF ARDEN...OR ABOUT
11 MILES NORTHWEST OF MERTZON...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 15 MPH.

* THE STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
  ARDEN BY 455 PM CDT

PEA SIZE HAIL AND WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH ARE LIKELY WITH THIS STORM.
HEAVY RAINFALL WILL CAUSE PONDING OF WATER ON AREA ROADWAYS...
ESPECIALLY THOSE IN POOR DRAINAGE AREAS. RESIDENTS ARE ENCOURAGED TO
MONITOR THE SITUATION CLOSELY AND BE PREPARED TO TAKE THE PROPER
ACTIONS SHOULD A WARNING BE ISSUED.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
449 PM CDT SUN MAY 6 2007

TXZ098-062245-
HASKELL TX-
449 PM CDT SUN MAY 6 2007

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT EFFECTIVE UNTIL 545 PM CDT FOR HASKELL
COUNTY...

AT 447 PM CDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS INDICATED BY NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR 4 MILES NORTHEAST OF SAGERTON...OR
ABOUT 10 MILES WEST OF HASKELL...MOVING NORTH AT 20 MPH.

* THE STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
  RULE AND HASKELL BY 500 PM CDT
  ROCHESTER BY 525 PM CDT
  OBRIEN AND WEINERT BY 535 PM CDT

PEA SIZE HAIL AND WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH ARE LIKELY WITH THIS STORM.
HEAVY RAINFALL WILL CAUSE PONDING OF WATER ON AREA ROADWAYS...
ESPECIALLY THOSE IN POOR DRAINAGE AREAS. RESIDENTS ARE ENCOURAGED TO
MONITOR THE SITUATION CLOSELY AND BE PREPARED TO TAKE THE PROPER
ACTIONS SHOULD A WARNING BE ISSUED.

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1000 PM CDT SUNDAY EVENING
FOR WESTERN TEXAS.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
500 PM CDT SUN MAY 06 2007

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0455 PM     FUNNEL CLOUD     3 S BLACKWELL           32.04N 100.32W
05/06/2007                   COKE               TX   PUBLIC

&&

SN