Flash Flood Warning 147, NWS San Angelo, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
304 PM CDT SUN MAY 27 2007

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT-TUESDAY)...UNCERTAIN FORECAST OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS WITH WITH MODELS NO HELP AS THEY ARE AT ODDS WITH ONE
ANOTHER. SAME AS YESTERDAY...SEVERAL SPINS ARE NOTED ON THE
SATELLITE. ONE JUST TO THE EAST OF SAN SABA COUNTY AND ANOTHER
BETWEEN STERLING CITY AND MIDLAND. THESE FEATURES IN COMBINATION
WITH DAY TIME HEATING HAVE INITIATED SEVERAL AREAS OF
THUNDERSTORMS THAT ARE NOT MOVING VERY MUCH. ITS MORE OF THE
OUTFLOWS PROPAGATING ALONG AND NEW STORMS DEVELOPING ALONG THE
OUTFLOWS. THESE SHOULD DISSIPATE WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING AND
THE BEST CHANCE OF RAIN SHIFTS BACK TO THE EAST OVERNIGHT. WILL
ALSO HAVE TO WATCH THE FEATURE MOVING ACROSS MEXICO. AT THIS
TIME...THINK THESE WILL DISSIPATE AS WELL...BUT THE FEATURE
ASSOCIATED WITH IT WILL BEGIN TO SLOW AND BE APPROACHING WEST
CENTRAL TEXAS LATE TOMORROW AND TOMORROW EVENING. EXPECT THEN
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND
EVENING WITH THIS FEATURE AND MOVE INTO WEST CENTRAL TEXAS FROM
THE WEST. RAIN CHANCES FORECAST TO DIMINISH AGAIN ON TUESDAY...BUT
CAN NOT RULE OUT ISOLATED AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACTIVITY.
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO WARM A LITTLE EACH DAY WITH LESS
RAINFALL COVERAGE.

.LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY-SUNDAY)...VERY UNCERTAIN FORECAST IN THE OUT
PERIODS. GFS SIGNIFICANTLY BACKED OFF THE FROPA FOR WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY. WHILE THE NAM AND ECMWF STILL BRING FRONT/OUTFLOW
THROUGH THE AREA. WITH THE UNCERTAINTY AND TIMING ISSUES COMING
INTO QUESTION...WILL TREND TEMPS UP JUST A BIT AND STAY WELL BELOW
GUIDANCE VALUES...STILL MAY BE TOO WARM IF THE NAM AND ECMWF
VERIFY. ALSO LOWERED POPS SOME...BUT STAYED ABOVE THE GUIDANCE
NUMBERS QUITE A BIT. THESE NUMBERS COULD BE HIGHER AS WELL IF THE
NAM/ECMWF VERIFY AS WELL...SO WE WILL HAVE TO SEE THE TRENDS IN
LATTER MODEL RUNS. FORECAST BEYOND FRIDAY STAYED PRETTY CONSISTENT
WITH THE WARM RIDGE CURRENTLY OVER THE BAJA AND WESTERN MEXICO
BUILDING NORTHEAST A BIT. STILL TEMPERATURES IN THE 90S A
POSSIBILITY FOR THE WEEKEND...BUT HERE TOO STAYED BELOW THE
GUIDANCE VALUES DUE TO THE WET GROUND AND FOR THE SOUTHEASTERLY
FLOW STILL FORECAST THAT WOULD CONTINUE TO PUMP GULF MOISTURE INTO
THE REGION.

BRAZZELL

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ABILENE 	 64  84  65  85 /  20  20  30  20
SAN ANGELO 	 62  86  67  88 /  20  20  30  20
JUNCTION 	 63  84  66  86 /  30  20  20  20

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

27/27

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
249 PM CDT SUN MAY 27 2007

TXZ049-054-064>066-071>073-076>078-098-099-113-114-127-128-139-
140-154-155-168>170-282000-
FISHER-NOLAN-STERLING-COKE-RUNNELS-IRION-TOM GREEN-CONCHO-
CROCKETT-SCHLEICHER-SUTTON-HASKELL-THROCKMORTON-JONES-SHACKELFORD-
TAYLOR-CALLAHAN-COLEMAN-BROWN-MCCULLOCH-SAN SABA-MENARD-KIMBLE-
MASON-
249 PM CDT SUN MAY 27 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF WEST CENTRAL
TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT
THE COMBINATION OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND WEAK UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCES WILL BRING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGHOUT THE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. THE MAIN THREAT WITH THESE STORMS
WILL BE VERY HEAVY RAIN...FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND GUSTY WINDS.
LOCALIZED FLOODING IS POSSIBLE FOR AREAS WHERE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
HE COMBINATION OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND WEAK UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCES WILL BRING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR MEMORIAL
DAY. AND ONCE AGAIN THE MAIN THREAT WILL BE HEAVY RAINFALL...GUSTY
WINDS AND OCCASIONAL TO FREQUENT LIGHTNING. THE APPROACH AND
ARRIVAL OF A COLD FRONT WILL BRING ANOTHER CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
348 PM CDT SUN MAY 27 2007

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0346 PM     FLASH FLOOD      1 N MELVIN              31.21N 99.58W
05/27/2007                   MCCULLOCH          TX   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            WATER OVER THE ROAD ON HWY 87 NEAR THE CONCHO COUNTY
            LINE. TRAFFIC IS BACKED UP AT THIS TIME.

&&

JBRAZZEL