Flash Flood Warning 143, NWS San Angelo, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
630 AM CDT SAT AUG 18 2007

.AVIATION...
REMNANTS OF ERIN STILL PRODUCING WIDESPREAD MODERATE RAIN ACROSS
NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS...AND WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT ABI AIRPORT
THROUGH THE MORNING. EXPECTING MAINLY MVFR CONDITIONS FOR MOST
AIRPORTS...BUT COULD SEE SOME TEMPORARY IFR CONDITIONS WITH
HEAVIER RAIN SHOWERS IN THE KABI AREA. CEILINGS SHOULD IMPOROVE BY
MID MORNING...BUT STILL CONCERNED ABOUT THE POSSIBILITY FOR
AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS AS THE REMNANTS OF ERIN LINGER ACROSS WEST
CENTRAL TEXAS. BEST THUNDER CHANCE WILL LIKELY BE IN THE 22Z TO
01Z TIME FRAME...BUT COULD SEE ADDITIONAL RAIN CONTINUING
OVERNIGHT AS WELL. DUE TO UNCERTAINTY IN LOCATION OF REMNANT UPPER
LOW...WILL WAIT A LITTLE BEFORE INTRODUCING RAIN OVERNIGHT
TONIGHT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 203 AM CDT SAT AUG 18 2007/

SHORT TERM...
UPPER LEVEL LOW WAS ABOUT 30 MILES NORTHEAST OF MIDLAND AT
2 AM...BUT MAIN WEATHER FOCUS IS A LARGE BAND OF CONVECTIVE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM PANDALE TO SONORA TO SAN ANGELO TO
ABILENE. STORMS ARE TRAINING ALONG THIS LINE WITH RAINFALL AMOUNTS
OF 1 TO 2 INCHES PER HOUR. ALONG WITH THE FLASH FLOOD THREAT...MAY
SEE SOME FLOODING ALONG THE RIVER RISES AND POTENTIAL FLOODING
ALONG THE SOUTH CONCHO...ELM CREEK AT BALLINGER...PECAN CREEK NEAR
SAN ANGELO. HEAVY RAINFALL NEAR AND SOUTH OF ABILENE MAY ALSO
CAUSE CREEKS TO RISE AND POSSIBLY FLOOD THIS MORNING.

RUC AND WRF MODELS INDICATE BAND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
EXPECTED TO WEAKEN THROUGH MID MORNING MORNING...MOVING IN TOWARD
THE CENTER OF CIRCULATION. THIS GIVES ANOTHER 6-8 HOURS OF HEAVY
RAINFALL HOWEVER WHICH WILL CAUSE SIGNIFICANT AND DANGEROUS
FLOODING PROBLEMS. AFTER THIS...MOST OF THE SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING IS CLOSER TO THE UPPER LOW...IN THE BIG
BIG COUNTRY. AGAIN HOWEVER CONVECTIVE BANDS OF STORMS POSSIBLE
AGAIN IN THE AFTERNOON...WHICH HAVE AT TIME BEEN STRONGER THAN
THOSE NEAR THE CENTER OF ERIN. WILL CONTINUE FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR
ALL THE CWA UNTIL 7 PM.

LONG TERM...
MAIN CONFIDENCE IS IN THE FIRST 12 HOURS OF THE FORECAST. WRF
MODEL DRIFTS THE CENTER OF ERIN...EASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHERN
BIG COUNTRY TONIGHT TO NEAR WICHITA FALLS ON SUNDAY. ETA (NAM)
WANTS TO DRIFT IT NORTH TOWARD LUBBOCK. NOT A LOT OF CONFIDENCE IN
EITHER ONE OF THE FORECASTS...THOUGH LIKE THE NAM A BIT MORE. IN
EITHER CASE...RAIN AND FLOOD POTENTIAL WILL BE GREATEST OVER THE
BIG COUNTRY TONIGHT/SUNDAY.

BOTH NAM/GFS DEVELOP AN WEAK UPPER LOW NEAR ALONG TEXAS GULF COAST
MONDAY NIGHT...MOVING IT NORTHWARD INTO WEST CENTRAL TEXAS TUESDAY
NIGHT/WEDNESDAY. NOT SURE ABOUT HOW REAL THIS IS...BUT ONLY A FEW
ISOLATED SHOWERS TRY TO DEVELOP ALONG IT ANYWAYS. 00Z GFS MODEL
TRY TO BRING REMNANTS OF DEAN MORE TOWARD THE BIG BEND
FRIDAY...BUT A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY WITH THIS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ABILENE  81  72  85  72 /  90  80  50  50
SAN ANGELO  84  72  87  73 /  90  70  40  50
JUNCTION  88  72  88  73 /  60  40  30  20

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR BROWN-CALLAHAN-COKE-
COLEMAN-CONCHO-CROCKETT-FISHER-HASKELL-IRION-JONES-KIMBLE-MASON-
MCCULLOCH-MENARD-NOLAN-RUNNELS-SAN SABA-SCHLEICHER-SHACKELFORD-
STERLING-SUTTON-TAYLOR-THROCKMORTON-TOM GREEN.

&&

08

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
545 AM CDT SAT AUG 18 2007

TXZ049-054-064>066-071>073-076>078-098-099-113-114-127-128-139-
140-154-155-168>170-191045-
FISHER-NOLAN-STERLING-COKE-RUNNELS-IRION-TOM GREEN-CONCHO-
CROCKETT-SCHLEICHER-SUTTON-HASKELL-THROCKMORTON-JONES-SHACKELFORD-
TAYLOR-CALLAHAN-COLEMAN-BROWN-MCCULLOCH-SAN SABA-MENARD-KIMBLE-
MASON-
545 AM CDT SAT AUG 18 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF WEST CENTRAL
TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

HEAVY RAINFALL FLASH FLOODING WILL CONTINUE MAINLY ACROSS THE WESTERN
AND NORTHERN AREAS OF WEST CENTRAL TEXAS TODAY AND TONIGHT. ADDITIONAL
RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 3 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS
THE BIG COUNTRY NEAR ABILENE. ANY ADDITIONAL RAIN TODAY WILL
CONTINUE TO CAUSE FLASH FLOODING ALONG STREAMS...CREEKS AND
RIVERS. IF YOU LIVE ALONG A RIVER OR CREEK...BE READY TO MOVE TO
HIGHER GROUND QUICKY. LOW WATER CROSSINGS FLOOD QUICKLY AND MAY
CUT OFF ESCAPE ROUTES.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS WEST
CENTRAL TEXAS THROUGH SUNDAY...WITH THE FLASH FLOOD THREAT
REMAINING HIGH THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE RAIN CHANCES SHOULD
DECREASE BY MONDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED. HOWEVER...WE ENCOURAGE ALL
SPOTTERS AND RAINFALL OBSERVERS TO REPORT FLOODING AND HEAVY RAINFALL.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
447 AM CDT SAT AUG 18 2007

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0446 AM     FLASH FLOOD      10 SW ABILENE           32.35N 99.85W
08/18/2007                   TAYLOR             TX   CO-OP OBSERVER

            SERIOUS FLASH FLOODING ALONG ELM CREEK NEAR HIGHWAY 277
            AND 606...HOUSES WASHED INTO THE CREEK.

&&

08