Flash Flood Warning 1, NWS San Angelo, TX

000 
WGUS74 KSJT 260846
FFSSJT

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
345 AM CDT MON MAR 26 2007

TXC105-261015-
CROCKETT TX-
345 AM CDT MON MAR 26 2007

...A FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 515 AM CDT FOR
CROCKETT COUNTY...

AT 335 AM CDT...LOCAL LAW ENFORCEMENT OFFICIALS REPORTED SEVERAL 
LOCATIONS ALONG HIGHWAY 163 SOUTH OF OZONA WITH WATER FLOWING OVER 
THE ROAD. IN ADDITION...HIGHWAY 137 NORTH OF OZONA ALSO HAD SOME 
LOCATIONS WITH WATER RUNNING OVER THE ROAD. ALTHOUGH THE HEAVIEST 
RAINFALL HAS MOVED EAST OF CROCKETT COUNTY...RUNOFF FROM THE  
EARLIER RAINFALL WILL CONTINUE TO CAUSE FLOODING IN POOR DRAINAGE 
AREAS AND AT AREA LOW WATER CROSSINGS ACROSS THE COUNTY. 

LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO OZONA

BE ESPECIALLY CAUTIOUS AT NIGHT WHEN IT IS HARDER TO RECOGNIZE THE
DANGERS OF FLOODING. IF FLASH FLOODING IS OBSERVED ACT QUICKLY. MOVE
UP TO HIGHER GROUND TO ESCAPE FLOOD WATERS. DO NOT STAY IN AREAS
SUBJECT TO FLOODING WHEN WATER BEGINS RISING.

MOST FLOOD DEATHS OCCUR IN AUTOMOBILES. NEVER DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO
AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE ROADWAY. FLOOD WATERS ARE USUALLY
DEEPER THAN THEY APPEAR. JUST ONE FOOT OF FLOWING WATER IS POWERFUL
ENOUGH TO SWEEP VEHICLES OFF THE ROAD. WHEN ENCOUNTERING FLOODED
ROADS MAKE THE SMART CHOICE...TURN AROUND...DONT DROWN.

LAT...LON 3030 10172 3030 10097 3107 10097 3108 10234
      3096 10188 3072 10178 3067 10174 3064 10163
      3055 10163 3043 10168 3035 10162

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
1146 PM CDT SUN MAR 25 2007

.AVIATION...NOT MUCH CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS TAF PACKAGE AS COMPLEX
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALREADY APPROACHING KSJT AND KSOA AND
KJCT. ONLY A MATTER OF TIME BEFORE TSRA OVERSPREADS THE REMIANDER
OF THE TAF SITES. OPERATIONAL IMPACTS WILL BE LIKELY THROUGH MUCH
OF THE MORNING HOURS WITH A POSSIBLITY OF A SHORT BREAK IN THE
ACTIVITY LATE MORNING BEFORE ANOTHER ROUND IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN TO IMPROVE AS TSRA AREA MOVES EAST OF THE
TERMINAL SITES BETWEEN 23 AND 01Z.

BRAZZELL

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 845 PM CDT SUN MAR 25 2007/

UPDATE...
UPPER LEVEL LOW LOCATED OVER NORTHERN MEXICO...MOVING EAST.
TROPICAL PLUME LOCATED FROM NORTHERN MEXICO ON NORTH ACROSS TEXAS.
GREAT DIFFULENCE BETWEEN UPPER LEVEL JETS OVER WESTERN TEXAS AND
EASTERN NEW MEXICO. LOOKS LIKE MCS DEVELOPING ACROSS WESTERN
TEXAS...AND INCREASING LOW LEVEL JET MAY RESULT IN THE MCS MOVING
INTO WEST CENTRAL TEXAS AFTER MIDNIGHT. HAVE EXTENDED THE FLASH
FLOOD WATCH THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON...AND ADDED STERLING AND
IRION COUNTIES. HAVE KEPT THE BIG COUNTRY OUT OF THE FLASH FLOOD
WATCH FOR NOW.  21

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 634 PM CDT SUN MAR 25 2007/

AVIATION...WITH THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WELL TO THE WEST AND
COPIOUS AMOUNTS OF MOISTURE CONTINUING TO STREAM ACROSS WEST
CENTRAL TEXAS...WILL SEE PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
AFFECT THE TAFS SITES TONIGHT AND TOMORROW. KBBD AND KJCT HIT
HARDEST EARLY ON WITH A BREAK FOR THESE TWO SITES THIS EVENING AND
THEN DETERIORATING ONCE AGAIN OVERNIGHT AS NEXT ROUND OF
CONVECTION CROSSES THE AREA. WORSE CONDITIONS WITH IFR AND TSRA
EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT AND TOMORROW MORNING FOR KSOA KSJT AND KJCT.
KABI WILL SEE THE LEAST EFFECTS FROM THIS ROUND...BUT STILL WILL
IMPACT OPERATIONS. EXPECT ANOTHER BREAK LATE TOMORROW MORNING
FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER ROUND OF CONVECTION TOMORROW AFTERNOON.

BRAZZELL

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 409 PM CDT SUN MAR 25 2007/

SHORT TERM...
VERY BUSY AFTERNOON WITH LOTS OF RAIN. WE NEED IT. HARD TO ARGUE
WITH 90 POPS GUIDANCE FOR TONIGHT AND TOMORROW. DECIDED AGAINST
GOING WITH 100 POPS FOR THOSE TWO PERIODS...MAINLY TO AGREE WITH
GRIDS FROM SURROUNDING OFFICES. HOWEVER...EXPECT NEARLY ALL OF WEST
CENTRAL TEXAS TO RECEIVE MEASURABLE RAINFALL TONIGHT AND MOST OF
TOMORROW. ALSO...DECIDED TO GO WITH A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR
TONIGHT. ALTHOUGH...WE DID NOT RECEIVE ANY REPORTS TODAY OF FLASH
FLOODING. WE MAY NEED TO EXTEND THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR AT
LEAST SOME OF OUR COUNTIES INTO TOMORROW. HOWEVER...DECIDED TO LET
THE MIDNIGHT CREW MAKE THAT CALL. NUMBERS CLOSE TO MOS GUIDANCE
LOOK GOOD FOR TEMPERATURES. BRING ON THAT RAIN.

LONG TERM...
THE GFS STILL TRYING TO BRING ANOTHER SURFACE COLD FRONT ACROSS
WEST CENTRAL TEXAS WEDNESDAY NIGHT. BELIEVE WE WILL SEE ANOTHER
FRONT. HOWEVER...IF SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS JUST SOUTH OF THE BIG
BEND LIKE THE GFS PREDICTS...DOUBT STRONG SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW
WILL ALLOW THE FRONT TO MAKE MUCH SOUTHERN PROGRESS. DID NOT
CHANGE POPS FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...EVEN THOUGH MEX MOS
GUIDANCE IS INDICATING 50 POPS ACROSS THE NORTHWEST HILL COUNTRY
FOR THOSE PERIODS. NUMBERS HERE CLOSE TO MOS GUIDANCE ALSO LOOK GOOD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ABILENE 	 60  72  59  82 /  70  70  40  10
SAN ANGELO 	 61  71  57  84 /  80  80  30  10
JUNCTION 	 66  72  60  86 /  80  80  50  10

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON FOR BROWN-COKE-
COLEMAN-CONCHO-CROCKETT-IRION-KIMBLE-MASON-MCCULLOCH-MENARD-
RUNNELS-SAN SABA-SCHLEICHER-STERLING-SUTTON-TOM GREEN.

&&

27/27

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
412 PM CDT SUN MAR 25 2007

TXZ049-054-064>066-071>073-076>078-098-099-113-114-127-128-139-
140-154-155-168>170-262115-
FISHER-NOLAN-STERLING-COKE-RUNNELS-IRION-TOM GREEN-CONCHO-
CROCKETT-SCHLEICHER-SUTTON-HASKELL-THROCKMORTON-JONES-SHACKELFORD-
TAYLOR-CALLAHAN-COLEMAN-BROWN-MCCULLOCH-SAN SABA-MENARD-KIMBLE-
MASON-
412 PM CDT SUN MAR 25 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF WEST CENTRAL
TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT. DUE TO A VERY
MOIST ATMOSPHERE...AND POSSIBLE TRAINING OF THUNDERSTORMS...SOME
OF THESE STORMS WILL BE ABLE TO PRODUCE HEAVY RAINFALL IN A
RELATIVELY SHORT PERIOD OF TIME. LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING IS POSSIBLE.
A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR AREAS ALONG AND SOUTH OF A
BIG LAKE...SAN ANGELO...COLEMAN...BROWNWOOD LINE TONIGHT.

A FEW STORMS MAY ALSO BECOME SEVERE...MAINLY WEST OF A SWEETWATER
TO OZONA LINE...THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THIS AREA HAS SEEN
MORE HEATING FROM THE SUN AND THUS HAS BECOME MORE UNSTABLE.
LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS ARE THE GREATEST THREATS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN LIKELY INTO MONDAY NIGHT AS
AN UPPER DISTURBANCE MOVES OVER WEST CENTRAL TEXAS. WITH
MOISTURE REMAINING ABUNDANT...THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED FLASH
FLOODING WILL CONTINUE OVER MOST OF WEST CENTRAL TEXAS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

04