Severe Thunderstorm Warning 50, NWS Shreveport, LA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
241 PM CDT MON APR 2 2007

.DISCUSSION...

WARM HUMID AIR MASS HAS RETURNED TO THE CWA. SETTING UP FOR
INTERACTION WITH COLD FRONT LATE TUESDAY...WHICH IS EXPECTED TO
TOUCH OFF SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...SOME
POSSIBLY SEVERE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE FRONT WILL
CLEAR OUT THE AREA AND NE WINDS AT THE SURFACE WILL HELP KEEP A
COOLER THAN NORMAL REGIME IN PLACE. HELPING THIS WILL BE A DIRTY
NW FLOW ALOFT THAT WILL KEEP CLOUDINESS AND OCCASIONAL SHOWER
ACTIVITY OVER THE AREA. MODELS HAVING A HARD TIME RESOLVING THE
DISTURBANCES IN THE RAPID NW FLOW AS THEY STRUGGLE TO PIN THE TAIL
ON THE STRENGTH AND POSITION OF THE ANOMALOUS EAST COAST UPPER
TROUGH THAT WILL DOMINATE THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK. CONSIDER
THE WEATHER DURING THE LATTER PORTION OF THE FORECAST TO BE SOMEWHAT
UNSETTLED. /17/

&&

.AVIATION...

CUMULUS FIELDS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN
TX...BUT LESS PRONOUNCED OVER NORTHERN LA...VERY LITTLE SE OK/SW AR.
FIRST ISOLATED RW JUST POPPED OVER SE TX...EXTENDING TO JUST SOUTH
OF LFK. GOOD SOUTHERLY FLOW NOT LIKELY TO DECOUPLE OVERNIGHT...
WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S...LOW CLOUDS MAKE ARRIVAL SHORTLY AFTER
06Z. WINDS PICK UP FROM SOUTH DURING DAY TUESDAY WITH APPROACH OF
A STRONG COLD FRONT CURRENTLY STILL IN THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. /VII/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  64  83  59  68 /  20  20  60  30
MLU  64  82  59  68 /  20  20  60  30
DEQ  60  81  53  68 /  10  40  50  10
TXK  65  82  56  67 /  10  30  60  10
ELD  63  82  55  68 /  10  20  60  10
TYR  64  81  59  68 /  20  20  60  30
GGG  64  82  58  68 /  20  20  60  30
LFK  64  82  63  72 /  20  20  50  40

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

17/07

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1200 PM CDT MON APR 2 2007

ARZ050-051-059>061-070>073-LAZ001>006-010>014-017>022-OKZ077-TXZ096-
097-108>112-124>126-136>138-149>153-165>167-031100-
ANGELINA-BIENVILLE-BOSSIER-BOWIE-CADDO-CALDWELL-CAMP-CASS-CHEROKEE-
CLAIBORNE-COLUMBIA-DE SOTO-FRANKLIN-GRANT-GREGG-HARRISON-HEMPSTEAD-
HOWARD-JACKSON-LA SALLE-LAFAYETTE-LINCOLN-LITTLE RIVER-MARION-
MCCURTAIN-MILLER-MORRIS-NACOGDOCHES-NATCHITOCHES-NEVADA-OUACHITA-
PANOLA-RED RIVER LA-RED RIVER TX-RUSK-SABINE LA-SABINE TX-
SAN AUGUSTINE-SEVIER-SHELBY-SMITH-TITUS-UNION AR-UNION LA-UPSHUR-
WEBSTER-WINN-WOOD-
1200 PM CDT MON APR 2 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA...NORTHEAST
TEXAS...SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS...NORTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT...

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BECOME VERY UNSTABLE ACROSS THE FOUR STATE REGION
TUESDAY AFTERNOON AHEAD OF A STRONG COLD FRONT. STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DEVELOP NORTH OF THE INTERSTATE 30 CORRIDOR
OF NORTHEAST TEXAS...SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS LATE
TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE SOUTH TO NEAR THE
INTERSTATE 20 CORRIDOR LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY
MORNING. SOME OF THESE STORMS WILL LIKELY BECOME SEVERE PRODUCING
LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

THE ACTIVATION OF EMERGENCY MANAGERS...SKYWARN NETWORKS...AND STORM
SPOTTERS...SHOULD NOT BE NEEDED TODAY OR TONIGHT.

17