Severe Thunderstorm Warning 303, NWS Shreveport, LA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
809 PM CST WED DEC 19 2007

.DISCUSSION...
WARM FRONT AS OF 02Z HAS PULLED UP STATIONARY...ALONG THE AR/LA
BORDER SNAKING WESTWARD TO JUST NORTH OF MOUNT PLEASANT TEXAS.
FRONT HAS BEEN IN THIS POSITION FOR THE LAST FOUR HOURS AND AS A
RESULT...TEMPERATURES HAVE FALLEN OFF QUICKLY ACROSS SOUTHWEST
ARKANSAS AND SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA. HAVE LOWERED TEMPERATURES A
COUPLE OF CATEGORIES NORTH OF THIS BOUNDARY BUT THE THINKING IS
THAT THIS BOUNDARY MAY MOVE A LITTLE FURTHER NORTH TONIGHT BUT NOT
MUCH PER 00Z RUC. HAVE ALSO ADDED PATCHY DENSE FOG WORDING ACROSS
OUR NORTHERN ZONES WITH VISIBILITIES AS LOW AS 1/2 MILE AT ELD
ALREADY.

CONCERNING CONVECTION...LOW LEVEL JET IS JUST NOW STARTING TO
CRANK OUT WEST OF THE REGION PER PALESTINE PROFILER SITE WITH
AROUND 30KTS AT 5K. THIS SHOULD CONTINUE TO INCREASE OVERNIGHT
WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TO EXPAND IN COVERAGE AND
INTENSITY ACROSS OUR WESTERN ZONES OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
DESPITE MOST OF OUR CWA BEING SOUTH OF THE STALLED BOUNDARY...FEEL
LIKE ACTIVITY WILL MOSTLY BE ELEVATED IN NATURE THUS SUPPORTIVE OF
A HAIL THREAT LATER TONIGHT. MODIFIED MARITIME AIRMASS WILL TRY TO
COME NORTHWARD INTO OUR SOUTHERN ZONES LATER TONIGHT AND THIS
COULD RESULT IN A WIND/ISOLATED TORNADO THREAT...BUT THIS ALL
DEPENDS ON IF THE ACTIVITY CAN BECOME ROOTED BELOW THE BOUNDARY
LAYER OR NOT.

FOR NOW...HAVE BUMPED POPS TO LIKELY CATEGORY ACROSS OUR EXTREME
NORTHWEST ZONES FOR LATER TONIGHT AS INITIAL ROUND OF CONVECTION
WILL BE TOO CLOSE TO THIS REGION TO SPLIT HAIRS.

UPDATE OUT SHORTLY...13.

&&

.AVIATION...
LATEST SURFACE OBS SHOW WARM FRONT RUNNING RIGHT ALONG THE AR/LA
BORDER...W/VSBYS APPROACHING VLIFR NORTH OF THE FRONT.  00Z SHV/LCH
RAOBS SHOW STEEP MID-LEVEL LRS...BUT OTHERWISE UNIMPRESSIVE.
HOWEVER...KSHV VAD PROFILER SHOWS LLJ BEGINNING TO DEVELOP AHEAD OF
TROUGH OVER THE TEXAS PANHANDLE...W/CONVECTION ALREADY FORMING WEST
OF KLFK.  THUS...EXPECT LIFR/VLIFR CEILINGS/VSBYS ALL SITES BY 06Z
OR SOONER.  AS TROUGH EXITS THURSDAY AFTERNOON...EXPECT SCOURING TO
VFR BY 21Z ALL SITES EXCEPT KMLU/KELD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  59  71  43  71 /  70  40  10  10
MLU  58  71  45  70 /  70  60  10  10
DEQ  48  67  35  68 /  70  30  10  10
TXK  48  70  44  68 /  70  30  10  10
ELD  48  71  41  70 /  70  30  10  10
TYR  58  70  42  71 /  70  20  10  10
GGG  58  70  42  71 /  70  20  10  10
LFK  60  73  40  74 /  70  30  10  10

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

13/44

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1110 PM CST WED DEC 19 2007

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1108 PM     HAIL             POLLOCK                 31.52N 92.41W
12/19/2007  E0.88 INCH       GRANT              LA   CO-OP OBSERVER

&&

JD

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