Severe Thunderstorm Warning 265, NWS Shreveport, LA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
306 PM CDT TUE JUL 17 2007

.DISCUSSION...
SHEAR AXIS OF UPPER TROF BECOMING MORE DIFFUSE WITH CONVECTION A
TAD MORE ISOLATED THUS FAR FOR THE AFTN. NOT A LOT OF CHANGE INTO
FRIDAY AS LOW CHANCE COVERAGE EXPECTED SE...VERY ISOLATED NE. NAM
DEFINITELY HOLDS THIS TREND...WITH SUSPECT AVN TRYING TO KEEP
CONVECTION ACTIVE AREAWIDE. NEWEST RUNS SLOWING COLD FRONT DOWN A
BIT AND ENTER NORTHERN CWA BY SATURDAY MORNING. MAY SEE STRONGER TSTMS
WITH THIS SYSTEM THAN TYPICAL SUMMERTYPE. NOT TOO OPTOMISTIC THAT
A FRONT WILL PUSH CLEAN THROUGH THIS LATE IN SUMMER SO MAY ONLY
SEE ONE OR TWO POPFREE PERIODS AFTER FROPA. GDEX SHOWS UPPER LOW FORMING
OVER CENTRAL TX IMMEDIATELY AFTER FROPA. EXPECT SUBSIDENCE TO
OCCUR OVER SOUTHERN PLAINS WITH SOUTHWARD PASSAGE OF UPPER
TROF...AND SO NORTHERN PORTIONS OF CWA MAY RISE WELL INTO 90S TO
BEGIN NEXT WEEK. /VII/

&&

.AVIATION...
UPPER TROUGH AXIS FROM ELD TO LFK TODAY. AT THE SFC...WEAK SOUTHERLY
FLOW REGIME EXISTS. WITH PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THE GULF OVER
THE AREA...EXPECT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION TO CONTINUE
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. BEST COVERAGE WILL BE ALONG AND SOUTH OF
THE TROUGH AXIS...WITH ISOLATED COVERAGE NORTH OF THE TROUGH AXIS.
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH EVENING...CONVECTION WILL
PRODUCE LOCALIZED MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS ALONG WITH GUSTY WINDS. SOME
AREAS OF MVFR/IFR CIGS AND VSBYS ARE EXPECTED AROUND SUNRISE AND
WILL LIFT TO VFR BY LATE MORNING SATURDAY. /17/

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  72  91  74  92 /  20  30  30  30
MLU  72  90  73  92 /  30  30  30  30
DEQ  71  93  71  92 /  20  20  20  20
TXK  72  93  73  93 /  20  20  20  20
ELD  71  90  72  93 /  20  30  30  20
TYR  72  89  73  90 /  20  30  30  30
GGG  72  91  73  91 /  20  30  30  30
LFK  72  87  72  89 /  30  40  30  40

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1200 PM CDT TUE JUL 17 2007

ARZ050-051-059>061-070>073-LAZ001>006-010>014-017>022-OKZ077-TXZ096-
097-108>112-124>126-136>138-149>153-165>167-181059-
ANGELINA-BIENVILLE-BOSSIER-BOWIE-CADDO-CALDWELL-CAMP-CASS-CHEROKEE-
CLAIBORNE-COLUMBIA-DE SOTO-FRANKLIN-GRANT-GREGG-HARRISON-HEMPSTEAD-
HOWARD-JACKSON-LA SALLE-LAFAYETTE-LINCOLN-LITTLE RIVER-MARION-
MCCURTAIN-MILLER-MORRIS-NACOGDOCHES-NATCHITOCHES-NEVADA-OUACHITA-
PANOLA-RED RIVER LA-RED RIVER TX-RUSK-SABINE LA-SABINE TX-
SAN AUGUSTINE-SEVIER-SHELBY-SMITH-TITUS-UNION AR-UNION LA-UPSHUR-
WEBSTER-WINN-WOOD-
1200 PM CDT TUE JUL 17 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA...NORTHEAST
TEXAS...SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS...NORTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...

MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE
AREA TODAY...MAINLY IN NORTHERN LOUISIANA AND THE EAST TEXAS LAKES
AREA. ALTHOUGH AN ISOLATED SEVERE STORM IS POSSIBLE...MOST OF THE
STORMS WILL REMAIN BELOW SEVERE LIMITS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

STORM SPOTTERS...HAM RADIO OPERATORS...AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT
PERSONNEL...SHOULD NOT BE NEEDED TODAY OR TONIGHT.

VII