Severe Thunderstorm Warning 254, NWS Shreveport, LA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
323 PM CDT THU JUL 12 2007

.DISCUSSION...

AREA RADARS SHOW WANING MCS HAS MOVED INTO AR...CLIPPING MUCH OF SE
OK AND SW AR.  UPSTREAM...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS NEXT SHORTWAVE
DROPPING OUT OF CO...AND WILL LIKELY BE THE FOCUS FOR ANOTHER MCS
OVER THE NEXT 48 HRS.  12Z KSHV SOUNDING AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS
MAINTAIN A VERY MOIST...UNSTABLE AMS TO WORK WITH THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...W/BOTH THE NAM AND GFS INCREASING PWATS TO OVER 2 INCHES
BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON.  THUS...WE/LL INSERT A MENTION OF HEAVY
RAINFALL INTO THE GRIDS FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING.
SHEAR REMAINS WEAK...AND WET-BULB ZEROS A BIT HIGH FOR HAIL...SO MAIN
CONCERNS WILL BE FLOODING...ESPECIALLY OVER SE OK/NE TEXAS.

OTHERWISE...PLENTY OF SHORTWAVE ACTIVITY IS PROGGED TO ROTATE
THROUGH UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS THROUGH
NEXT WEEK...WARRANTING A CHANCE OF RAIN THROUGHOUT.  THIS WILL PLAY
HOB W/TEMPS EACH DAY...BUT MODEL TEMP PROGS INDICATE GUIDANCE
NUMBERS ARE REASONABLE...I.E...NEAR NORMAL.  NEAR THE END OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD...GFS SHIFTS THE RIDGE TO THE CENTRAL PLAINS...FOR
TEMPS TRENDING TO ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...

BEST CHANCES OF AFTERNOON AND EVENING CONVECTION WILL BE OVER SE
OK...FAR NE TX AROUND I 30...AND SW AND SOUTHERN AR. CHANCES ALSO
NEAR I 20 CORRIDOR...BUT DECREASING FURTHER S AS WE GET TO LFK AND
NATCHITOCHES. MOST CONVECTION WILL DIE DOWN THROUGH THE EVENING BUT
ANOTHER THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX MAY MOVE THROUGH OK FRIDAY MORNING AND
THREATEN THE FOUR STATE AREA AGAIN WITH CONVECTION...OR AT LEAST
BOUNDARIES THAT WILL HELP INITIATE CONVECTION FRI AFTN. GENERALLY
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL...EXCEPT OBVIOUSLY NEAR CONVECTION...BUT
MORNING HOURS MAY EXPERIENCE AREAS OF MVFR CONDITIONS. /17/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  75  96  74  92 /  20  30  40  40
MLU  72  96  71  86 /  20  30  40  50
DEQ  70  93  70  90 /  20  60  40  50
TXK  71  94  70  93 /  20  40  40  50
ELD  72  94  71  89 /  20  40  40  50
TYR  74  96  73  91 /  20  30  50  40
GGG  72  93  71  92 /  20  30  50  40
LFK  74  98  73  93 /  20  20  40  40

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

17/44/12

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