Severe Thunderstorm Warning 210, NWS Shreveport, LA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
250 PM CDT MON JUN 4 2007

.DISCUSSION...
SCATTERED CONVECTION DEVELOPING RAPIDLY ACROSS THE REGION IN A
MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIRMASS ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE REGION.
STRONG CORES AND RELATIVELY HIGH BASES SUGGEST HAIL AND ISOLATED
DOWNBURSTS WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT WITH THIS ACTIVITY. VORTMAX
CURRENTLY MOVING INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST COMBINED WITH
REMNANT BOUNDARIES ACROSS THE REGION AND A FRONTAL BOUNDARY
ACROSS SE OK AND SW AR WILL ALL HELP TO FOCUS ADDITIONAL
ACTIVITY THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING. PROGS DONT SEEM TO
HAVE A CLUE WITH THIS ACTIVITY THUS HAVE GONE WITH SCATTERED
POPS THIS EVENING ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION WITH HIGH CHANCE
POPS DOWN SOUTH WHERE A MORE MOIST ATMOSPHERE EXISTS.

PATTERN LOOKING DRY BEYOND TONIGHT AS UPPER RIDGE TO OUR WEST
STARTS TO MOVE EASTWARD INTO OUR REGION FOR TUE INTO WED. DEEP
TROUGH DEVELOPING OUT WEST WILL RESULT IN A MUCH STRONGER
PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE LOWER MISS VALLEY. AS A RESULT...
CAPPING INVERSION SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
WORK WEEK HELPING TO PUT A LID ON ANY POSSIBLE CONVECTION.
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL RESULT IN MAX TEMPERATURES REACHING
THE 90S THROUGH THE FCST PERIOD WITH LATE NIGHT AND MORNING
LOW CLOUDS.

PRELIMS TO FOLLOW...13.

&&

.AVIATION...
MOSTLY VFR EXPECTED THROUGH 05/18Z. HOWEVER POSSIBLE BRIEF MVFR/IFR
VICINITY SCATTERED TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.
WEAK BOUNDARY ACROSS CWA NEAR ELD...SHV...JSO LINE. WINDS BEHIND
THIS BOUNDARY WILL BE MAINLY WEST TO NORTHWEST AROUND 10 KTS.
WINDS SOUTH AND EAST OF THE BOUNDARY WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE TO
SOUTHWEST AT 5 TO 10 KTS. BOUNDARY WILL SHIFT SLOWLY SOUTHEAST AND
EVENTUALLY BECOME DIFFUSE BY 05/18Z. /14/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  65  91  66  92 /  30   0   0   0
MLU  63  90  62  91 /  30   0   0   0
DEQ  58  90  57  90 /  30   0   0   0
TXK  62  88  64  89 /  30   0   0   0
ELD  60  89  61  90 /  30   0   0   0
TYR  63  88  66  89 /  30   0   0   0
GGG  62  89  64  91 /  30   0   0   0
LFK  65  90  65  91 /  40   0   0   0

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

13/14

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1200 PM CDT MON JUN 4 2007

ARZ050-051-059>061-070>073-LAZ001>006-010>014-017>022-OKZ077-TXZ096-
097-108>112-124>126-136>138-149>153-165>167-051100-
ANGELINA-BIENVILLE-BOSSIER-BOWIE-CADDO-CALDWELL-CAMP-CASS-CHEROKEE-
CLAIBORNE-COLUMBIA-DE SOTO-FRANKLIN-GRANT-GREGG-HARRISON-HEMPSTEAD-
HOWARD-JACKSON-LA SALLE-LAFAYETTE-LINCOLN-LITTLE RIVER-MARION-
MCCURTAIN-MILLER-MORRIS-NACOGDOCHES-NATCHITOCHES-NEVADA-OUACHITA-
PANOLA-RED RIVER LA-RED RIVER TX-RUSK-SABINE LA-SABINE TX-
SAN AUGUSTINE-SEVIER-SHELBY-SMITH-TITUS-UNION AR-UNION LA-UPSHUR-
WEBSTER-WINN-WOOD-
1200 PM CDT MON JUN 4 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA...NORTHEAST
TEXAS...SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS...NORTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS
PARTS OF DEEP EAST TEXAS...LOWER TOLEDO BEND COUNTRY...AND
INTO SOUTHERN PARTS OF NORTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA...IN ASSOCIATION
WITH A BOUNDARY LEFT OVER BY YESTERDAY AND OVERNIGHT
STORMS. ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLY OVER REMAINING PARTS OF THE FOUR STATE REGION.
NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN SPOTTER...EMERGENCY MANAGER...AND STORM SPOTTER ACTIVATION
SHOULD NOT BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON OR TONIGHT.

13