Severe Thunderstorm Warning 203, NWS Shreveport, LA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
931 AM CDT SUN JUN 3 2007

.DISCUSSION...
UPDATED TO ACCOUNT FOR SVR WATCH #336 VALID UNTIL 2PM FOR THE
SOUTHERN TWO THIRDS OF NORTHEAST TEXAS. INSTABILITY STARTING TO
INCREASE AHEAD OF MCS ACROSS N TX ATTM AND WITH DESCENT MID LEVEL
WINDS ACCOMPANYING MCS...FEEL LIKE IT SHOULD HOLD TOGETHER AT LEAST
UNTIL LATE MORNING AND PERHAPS EVEN INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON. HAVE
INCREASED POPS OUT WEST ACCORDINGLY AND SHAVED SOME HIGH TEMPS FOR
TODAY OUT WEST AS WELL.

UPDATE ALREADY SENT...13.

&&

.AVIATION...
TROUGH OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST MOVING EAST ACROSS MID MS VALLEY NOW.
RESULTANT NW FLOW OVER THE FOUR-STATE AREA NOW WITH AN MCS KNOCKING
ON THE DOOR.  KTYR...KGGG...AND KLFK WILL BE AMENDED SHORTLY WITH
TEMPO GROUPS FOR SVR WX THREAT.  SOME GUST TO 50KTS ALREADY REPORTED
JUST TO OUR WEST.  AS FOR THE 18Z ISSUANCE...WILL CLOSELY MONITOR
PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.  VFR CIGS FOR MOST WITH SFC WINDS S OR SW
NOW...VEERING TO MORE WESTERLY THIS P.M. 10KTS. THIS SHOULD DRY OUT
THE PBL SOMEWHAT...COUPLED W/WARM AFTERNOON TEMPS.  THUS...EXPECT
ONLY MVFR CONDITIONS AT A COUPLE OF TAF SITES AROUND SUNRISE MONDAY
MORNING...ASIDE FROM ANY THAT SEE A DOWNPOUR.  ONE MORE VORT NOW
OVER W NM MAY BRING IN ROUND 3 TOMORROW A.M.OVER SW QUAD OF CWA.

/24/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  87  66  89  67 /  40  30  30  10
MLU  90  67  89  64 /  20  20  30  10
DEQ  87  61  86  61 /  20  20  20  10
TXK  87  63  88  63 /  40  20  20  10
ELD  90  64  88  62 /  20  20  20  10
TYR  85  67  87  66 /  60  30  30  10
GGG  85  66  88  66 /  60  30  30  10
LFK  86  69  87  69 /  60  40  30  20

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

13/24

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1200 PM CDT SUN JUN 3 2007

ARZ050-051-059>061-070>073-LAZ001>006-010>014-017>022-OKZ077-TXZ096-
097-108>112-124>126-136>138-149>153-165>167-041100-
ANGELINA-BIENVILLE-BOSSIER-BOWIE-CADDO-CALDWELL-CAMP-CASS-CHEROKEE-
CLAIBORNE-COLUMBIA-DE SOTO-FRANKLIN-GRANT-GREGG-HARRISON-HEMPSTEAD-
HOWARD-JACKSON-LA SALLE-LAFAYETTE-LINCOLN-LITTLE RIVER-MARION-
MCCURTAIN-MILLER-MORRIS-NACOGDOCHES-NATCHITOCHES-NEVADA-OUACHITA-
PANOLA-RED RIVER LA-RED RIVER TX-RUSK-SABINE LA-SABINE TX-
SAN AUGUSTINE-SEVIER-SHELBY-SMITH-TITUS-UNION AR-UNION LA-UPSHUR-
WEBSTER-WINN-WOOD-
1200 PM CDT SUN JUN 3 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA...NORTHEAST
TEXAS...SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS...NORTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT...

A LARGE UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS WILL RESULT
IN SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE FOUR STATE
REGION TODAY. STRONG AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS ALONG WITH LARGE HAIL WILL
BE POSSIBLE THIS MORNING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS ACROSS NORTHEAST
TEXAS AS A SQUALL LINE IS EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE REGION. LATER THIS
AFTERNOON WITH THE AID OF HEATING...ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS NORTHWEST LOUISIANA AND SOUTHWEST
ARKANSAS. THESE WILL BE MORE ISOLATED IN NATURE BUT COULD STILL CONTAIN
STRONG WINDS GUSTS AND POSSIBLE SMALL HAIL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE AREA
IN ASSOCIATION WITH A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY
ACROSS THE FOUR STATE REGION NEAR THE INTERSTATE 20 CORRIDOR.
A MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS...ALONG WITH UPPER DISTURBANCES
TRAVERSING THE REGION WILL ALLOW SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS
TO BECOME STRONG AND POSSIBLY SEVERE MONDAY AND MONDAY
NIGHT. HIGH WINDS AND LARGE HAIL...ALONG WITH GUSTY WINDS AND
DANGEROUS LIGHTNING WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
SECTIONS OF EAST TEXAS INTO WEST CENTRAL AND CENTRAL LOUISIANA.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN SPOTTER...EMERGENCY MANAGER...AND STORM SPOTTER ACTIVATION
MAY BE NEEDED OVER NORTHEAST TEXAS AND EXTREME WESTERN LOUISIANA
TODAY AND TONIGHT.

13

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
117 PM CDT SUN JUN 03 2007

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1230 PM     TSTM WND DMG     SAN AUGUSTINE           31.53N 94.11W
06/03/2007                   SAN AUGUSTINE      TX   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            MULTIPLE REPORTS OF TREES AND POWERLINES DOWN ACROSS THE
            COUNTY. POWER IS OUT IN A FEW AREAS.

&&

18

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
124 PM CDT SUN JUN 03 2007

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1230 PM     TSTM WND DMG     CARTHAGE                32.15N 94.34W
06/03/2007                   PANOLA             TX   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            MULTIPLE REPORTS OF TREES AND POWERLINES DOWN ACROSS THE
            COUNTY. POWER IS OUT IN SOME AREAS.

&&

18

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
128 PM CDT SUN JUN 03 2007

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1130 AM     TSTM WND DMG     6 E JACKSONVILLE        31.97N 95.16W
06/03/2007                   CHEROKEE           TX   FIRE DEPT/RESCUE

            *** 3 INJ *** CAR HIT DOWNED TREES RESULTING IN INJURIES
            ON FM 2064.

&&

18

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
139 PM CDT SUN JUN 03 2007

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0115 PM     TSTM WND DMG     HEMPHILL                31.34N 93.85W
06/03/2007                   SABINE             TX   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            MULTIPLE REPORTS OF TREES DOWN ALONG ROADS ACROSS THE
            COUNTY.

&&

18

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