Severe Thunderstorm Warning 124, NWS Shreveport, LA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
331 PM CDT MON MAY 7 2007

.DISCUSSION...
STRONG CLOSED LOW OFF THE CAROLINA COAST. DEWPOINTS IN THE 30S
NOTED ALL DAY OVER AL/GA WITH THE NE WINDS THERE. THIS DRY AIR WILL
PUSH EASTWARD GRADUALLY INTO MS...WHERE MERIDIAN DEWPOINT HAS
DROPPED TO THE UPPER 40S TODAY. NOT EXPECTING THIS DRY AIR TO BE
ABLE TO MAKE PROGRESS WEST OF MS RIVER THOUGH. OUR DEWPOINTS MAY
DROP A TAD FROM THE NEAR 70 READINGS...BUT STILL REMAINING IN THE
60S AT LEAST FOR THE TIME BEING.

THE NW ARKLATEX GOT A LITTLE UNDER THE RAIN COLUMN TODAY. THE
UPPER LOW OVER THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES...NOT TO MENTION THE
INTERESTING CLOSED LOW OFF THE CAROLINA COAST...CONTINUE TO HELP A
NARROW RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE TO REMAIN OVER OUR CWA. THE MAIN
AXIS OF CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO RUN NORTH AND WEST OF OUR
AREA...WITH SPOTTY CONVECTION POSSIBLE OVER OUR CWA. MODELS SIGNAL
OVERNIGHT CONVECTIVE BAND WILL RETURN TO N TX AND CENTRAL OK...
THUS EXPECTING THE CONVECTIVE BANDS PRESENTLY OVER OUR NW CORNER
TO END BY EVENING.

LITTLE IN THE WAY OF CHANGE TO THIS OVERALL FORECAST FOR A FEW DAYS.
THE CLOSED LOW WILL GRADUALLY COME INTO THE ARKLATEX LATE
WEEK...LINGERING ENOUGH TO PROVIDE A SCATTERED CONVECTIVE WEEKEND
WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS. /17/

&&

.AVIATION...
THERE MAY BE A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM IN THE VICINITY OF
TYR...GGG...TXK...AND SHV THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS.
LOWER VISIBILITIES AND CEILINGS ALONG WITH BRIEF GUSTY WINDS WILL
ACCOMPANY THESE STORMS. IN THE MORNING...EXPECT PATCHY FOG AROUND
DAYBREAK AND THE CHANCE FOR MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATER ON
IN THE AFTERNOON...TOMORROW. /23/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  69  86  66  86 /  10  20  10  20
MLU  66  85  63  86 /  10  20   0  20
DEQ  66  83  64  81 /  20  20  20  30
TXK  68  84  65  83 /  20  20  20  30
ELD  65  85  63  85 /  10  20  10  20
TYR  69  85  66  84 /  10  20  10  20
GGG  68  86  65  84 /  10  20  10  20
LFK  68  86  65  84 /  10  20  10  20

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

17/23

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1200 PM CDT MON MAY 7 2007

ARZ050-051-059>061-070>073-LAZ001>006-010>014-017>022-OKZ077-TXZ096-
097-108>112-124>126-136>138-149>153-165>167-081100-
ANGELINA-BIENVILLE-BOSSIER-BOWIE-CADDO-CALDWELL-CAMP-CASS-CHEROKEE-
CLAIBORNE-COLUMBIA-DE SOTO-FRANKLIN-GRANT-GREGG-HARRISON-HEMPSTEAD-
HOWARD-JACKSON-LA SALLE-LAFAYETTE-LINCOLN-LITTLE RIVER-MARION-
MCCURTAIN-MILLER-MORRIS-NACOGDOCHES-NATCHITOCHES-NEVADA-OUACHITA-
PANOLA-RED RIVER LA-RED RIVER TX-RUSK-SABINE LA-SABINE TX-
SAN AUGUSTINE-SEVIER-SHELBY-SMITH-TITUS-UNION AR-UNION LA-UPSHUR-
WEBSTER-WINN-WOOD-
1200 PM CDT MON MAY 7 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA...NORTHEAST
TEXAS...SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS...NORTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT...

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
TODAY ACROSS MAINLY NORTHEAST TEXAS...SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND
SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS. WITH A VERY UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE EXPECTED THIS
AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING...A FEW OF THESE STORMS COULD BECOME
SEVERE PRODUCING LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. HOWEVER...
WIDESPREAD SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED TODAY OR TONIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

THERE IS ONLY A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY NORTH
OF THE INTERSTATE 30 CORRIDOR...FOR TUESDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

ACTIVATION OF EMERGENCY MANAGERS...SKYWARN NETWORKS...AND STORM
SPOTTERS...SHOULD NOT BE NEEDED TODAY OR TONIGHT.

17

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
223 PM CDT MON MAY 07 2007

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0155 PM     HAIL             LOCKESBURG              33.97N 94.17W
05/07/2007  E1.00 INCH       SEVIER             AR   POST OFFICE

            NICKEL SIZE BEGAN AT 1355 CDT...QUARTER SIZE REPORTED AT
            1410 CDT

&&

12

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
224 PM CDT MON MAY 07 2007

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0212 PM     HAIL             LOCKESBURG              33.97N 94.17W
05/07/2007  M1.25 INCH       SEVIER             AR   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            REPORTED BY SEVIER CO S/O

&&

12

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