Severe Thunderstorm Warning 105, NWS Shreveport, LA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
333 PM CDT TUE APR 24 2007

.DISCUSSION...
VERY POTENT CLOSED LOW NEAR PANHANDLE REGION WILL MOVE SLOWLY ESE ACROSS
OK TONIGHT AND WED. SCATTERED TSTMS DEVLOPING FROM FTW INTO SE OK.
FURTHER WEST...BROKEN LINE TSTMS ALONG DRYLINE. THUS...ALREADY TWO
REGIONS OF CONCERN...WITH CONVECTION POSSIBLE ALONG SECONDARY
BOUNDARIES LATER TONIGHT. 18Z SOUNDING AT FTW SHOWED A SIX HOUR
INCREASE IN K INDEX FROM 19 TO 37...AND HELICITY AROUND 200 WITH
45 KNOT LOW LEVEL JET. MODEL SOUNDING INDICATE THIS MODERATELY
HIGH HELICITY TO INCREASE. IN ADDITION...SOUTHERLY UPPER JET IN
EXCESS OF 100 KNOTS AHEAD OF UPPER LOW WILL SERVE BOTH TO PUMP
DEEP MOISTURE ACROSS EAST TX LATER TONIGHT...AND TO PRODUCE
EXTREME UPPER DIVERGENCE OF BOTH SPEED AND DIRECTIONAL COMPONENT.
SATURATED COLUMN AND POSSIBLE SLOWING OF SYSTEM DUE IN PART TO
OBSTRUCTION OF SUCH A STRONG SOUTHERLY UPPER LEVEL
JET...TRANSITION MORE FROM SEVERE TO VERY HEAVY RAIN EVENT. IN THE
MEANTIME...DRY AIR ABOVE LOADED GUN SHAPED SOUNDINGS ENHANCE
SEVERE THREAT...ESPECIALLY FOR LARGE HAIL. AS FFG VALUES FAIRLY HIGH...
WILL WAIT A FEW HOURS BEFORE DECIDING ON FLOOD WATCH.
OTHER QUESTION WILL BE EXISTENCE AND INTENSITY OF ANOTHER ROUND OF TSTMS
RIGHT ALONG FRONT DURING DAY ON WED. INHIBITING FACTOR WILL BE A
VERY WORKED OVER AIRMASS BY THAT TIME AND DRY SLOTTING FROM SE TX.
WEAK FRONT WILL DRAG INTO AT LEAST NORTHERN PORTIONS OF AREA WITH
SHORTWAVE IN NW FLOW ALOFT FRIDAY NIGHT. PUT IN LOW CHANCE POPS.
NEXT WEEK PREDOMINATE SOUTHERLY FLOW. MAY SEE HIGHS CLIMB WELL
INTO THE 80S. /VII/

&&

.AVIATION...
MVFR AND VFR CIGS CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON. CIGS WILL LOWER TONIGHT
TO MVFR WITH POSSIBLE IFR IN EAST TEXAS. SCATTERED TSRA WILL OCCUR
THIS EVENING OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE FOUR STATE AREA...WITH A
SQUALL LINE DEVELOPING LATE TONIGHT AND MOVING FROM WEST TO EAST
ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY MORNING. TSRA WILL BE NUMEROUS DURING THE
MORNING WEDNESDAY. CIGS AND VISIBILITIES WILL BE MVFR FOR MUCH OF
THE MORNING WEDNESDAY...WITH VFR CIGS MOVING INTO NORTHEAST AND EAST
TEXAS IN THE AFTERNOON ON WEDNESDAY. A FEW OF THE THUNDERSTORMS
TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY MAY PRODUCE HIGH WINDS AT A FEW TAF SITES./03/

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  66  75  56  77 /  70  70   0  10
MLU  67  76  58  76 /  50  70   0  10
DEQ  66  74  50  71 /  70  50  20  10
TXK  65  75  55  74 /  70  60  20  10
ELD  66  74  56  75 /  60  60  20  10
TYR  66  75  55  76 /  70  40   0  10
GGG  66  76  55  75 /  70  40   0  10
LFK  67  77  56  78 /  70  70   0  10

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

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