River Flood Warning 54, NWS Shreveport, LA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1045 AM CDT WED SEP 5 2007

.DISCUSSION...
LARGE AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...HAS NOT MOVED MUCH PAST
FEW HOURS. THIS ACTIVITY COVERING MOST OF NORTHEAST TEXAS...
SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA...AND SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS. INTENSITY OF CONVECTION
NOT YET INCREASING SO APPEARS NO IMMEDIATE SVR OR FLOODING THREAT.
CONTINUED TRAINING COULD YIELD A LITTLE BIT OF FLOOD PROBLEMS...
SO WILL ESPECIALLY WATCH COUNTIES WITH ONE HOUR FFG VALUES OF
2.5 INCHES OR LESS. 3 HOUR VALUES PROBABLY MORE CONCERN AS DONT
SEE RAINFALL INTENSITIES THAT WOULD ALARM ONE HOUR VALUES.
UPDATED TO BRING A LARGER POP GRADIENT ACROSS REGION...90 PERCENT
NW WITH ONGOING ACTIVITY...TO ONLY 30 PERCENT SE PORTIONS OF AREA.
LEFT AFTN HIGHS UPPER 80S TO NEAR 90 OVER PARTS OF LA...WHERE
PARTIAL SOLAR HEATING WILL CONTINUE. LOWERED HIGH TEMPS TO AROUND
80 TO LOWER 80S WHERE RAIN IS OCCURRING. /VII/

&&

.AVIATION...
AREA RADARS SHOW A LARGE AREA OF SHRA...WITH A FEW EMBEDDED TSRA...
CONTINUES ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL TX.  THE RAIN AREA IS ASSOCIATED
WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH...LIFTING NORTHEAST INTO THE MID-MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY.  ADDITIONAL SHRA/TSRA DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED THROUGH THIS
EVENING... AS ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS PICKED UP BY A SYSTEM
MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS.

EXPECT THE GREATEST FOCUS WITH ONGOING CONVECTION TO REMAIN W OF A
KLFK-KSHV-KDEQ LINE BUT JUST ABOUT ALL TERMINALS SHOULD SEE AT LEAST
THE POSSIBILITY FOR SHRA/TSRA.  MOST AIRPORTS EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN
MVFR FLIGHT CATEGORIES WITH ISOLATED IFR CONDITIONS LASTING LESS
THAN 20-30 MINUTES IN THE VICINITY OF CONVECTION.

MIGHT STILL SEE FLIGHT CATEGORY REDUCTIONS OUTSIDE OF PRECIPITATION
AREAS DUE TO CIGS/VSBYS TOMORROW MORNING. CONSIDERING BOUNDARY LAYER
WIND SPEEDS...BR/FG SHOULD NOT BE AS BIG CONCERN.  IF PROBLEMS ARISE
OVERNIGHT OUTSIDE OF SHRA/TSRA AREAS... IT WILL MORE THAN LIKELY BE
DUE TO LOW CIGS.  /01/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  85  74  88  75 /  70  50  50  30
MLU  89  73  87  74 /  30  50  50  30
DEQ  80  72  89  74 /  90  50  30  30
TXK  83  74  89  75 /  90  50  50  30
ELD  85  74  89  74 /  50  50  50  30
TYR  82  75  89  75 /  70  50  50  30
GGG  83  74  90  75 /  70  50  50  30
LFK  84  74  90  75 /  60  50  50  30

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

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