Flash Flood Watch 10, NWS Shreveport, LA

Lafayette County, AR, Miller County, AR, Bossier Parish, LA, Caddo Parish, LA, De Soto Parish, LA, Natchitoches Parish, LA, Red River Parish, LA, Sabine Parish, LA, Webster Parish, LA, Angelina County, TX, Bowie County, TX, Camp County, TX, Cass County, TX, Cherokee County, TX, Franklin County, TX, Gregg County, TX, Harrison County, TX, Marion County, TX, Morris County, TX, Nacogdoches County, TX, Panola County, TX, Red River County, TX, Rusk County, TX, Sabine County, TX, San Augustine County, TX, Shelby County, TX, Smith County, TX, Titus County, TX, Upshur County, TX, Wood County, TX

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HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1200 PM CDT THU JUL 5 2007

ARZ050-051-059>061-070>073-LAZ001>006-010>014-017>022-OKZ077-TXZ096-
097-108>112-124>126-136>138-149>153-165>167-061100-
ANGELINA-BIENVILLE-BOSSIER-BOWIE-CADDO-CALDWELL-CAMP-CASS-CHEROKEE-
CLAIBORNE-COLUMBIA-DE SOTO-FRANKLIN-GRANT-GREGG-HARRISON-HEMPSTEAD-
HOWARD-JACKSON-LA SALLE-LAFAYETTE-LINCOLN-LITTLE RIVER-MARION-
MCCURTAIN-MILLER-MORRIS-NACOGDOCHES-NATCHITOCHES-NEVADA-OUACHITA-
PANOLA-RED RIVER LA-RED RIVER TX-RUSK-SABINE LA-SABINE TX-
SAN AUGUSTINE-SEVIER-SHELBY-SMITH-TITUS-UNION AR-UNION LA-UPSHUR-
WEBSTER-WINN-WOOD-
1200 PM CDT THU JUL 5 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA...NORTHEAST
TEXAS...SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS...NORTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...

SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS
THE FOUR STATE REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...AHEAD OF A
STATIONARY UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER CENTRAL TEXAS. GIVEN
THAT THE AIR MASS REMAINS VERY MOIST...THE RAINFALL MAY BE HEAVY AT
TIMES...WITH SOME STORMS PRODUCING ONE TO TWO INCHES OF RAIN PER
HOUR...AND MOVING REPEATEDLY OVER THE SAME AREAS. THE FLOODING THREAT
THIS AFTERNOON WILL PRIMARY REMAIN CONFINED TO THE WESTERN SECTIONS
OF EAST TEXAS...MAINLY WEST OF A GILMER TO HENDERSON LINE.
HOWEVER...LOCALIZED FLOODING OF LOW LYING...POOR DRAINAGE AREAS WILL
BE POSSIBLE ANYWHERE ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF NORTHEAST TEXAS AND
NORTH LOUISIANA WHERE THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCE EXCESSIVE HEAVY
RAINFALL. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF ONE TO THREE INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE
ACROSS NORTHEAST TEXAS AND NORTHWEST LOUISIANA THIS AFTERNOON...WITH
ISOLATED AMOUNTS NEARING FOUR INCHES POSSIBLE.

WHILE THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY DIMINISH A BIT LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...ADDITIONAL REDEVELOPMENT IS LIKELY TONIGHT
OVER ALL OF THE FOUR STATE REGION...AS THIS UPPER LEVEL LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY OR SLOWLY LIFTS A
TAD NORTHEAST TOWARDS NORTHEAST TEXAS. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS
POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS OVERNIGHT...WITH A MORE WIDESPREAD THREAT
OF FLASH FLOODING INCREASING AS THE SOILS REMAIN SATURATED. RAINFALL
AMOUNTS TONIGHT OF ONE TO THREE INCHES WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS NEARING
FIVE INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE TONIGHT...WITH THE HEAVIER RAINFALL
AXIS CONFINED MAINLY SOUTH OF A CLARKSVILLE TEXAS...TO TEXARKANA AND
STAMPS ARKANSAS LINE...INCLUDING NORTHWEST LOUISIANA WEST OF A MINDEN
TO NATCHITOCHES LINE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE IN PROGRESS
FRIDAY MORNING ACROSS MUCH OF THE FOUR STATE REGION...WITH THE
HEAVIEST RAINFALL AXIS EXPECTED TO BE OVER EASTERN TEXAS...
SOUTHCENTRAL ARKANSAS...AND NORTHERN LOUISIANA. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF
ONE TO THREE INCHES ARE EXPECTED OVER THESE AREAS...WITH ISOLATED
HIGHER AMOUNTS OF FOUR INCHES POSSIBLE. THIS WILL MAINTAIN THE THREAT
FOR SIGNIFICANT FLOODING...ESPECIALLY OVER AREA WHERE RAIN RATES
REMAIN EXCESSIVE...AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVE REPEATEDLY OVER THE SAME
AREAS. RAINFALL INTENSITIES ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH SOME BY LATE
MORNING OR EARLY AFTERNOON...THUS REDUCING THE FLOOD THREAT.
ADDITIONAL SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM REDEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE FRIDAY
NIGHT OVER EAST TEXAS...SOUTHCENTRAL ARKANSAS...AND NORTH LOUISIANA
AS THIS UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE LINGERS OVER THE REGION...THUS
CONTINUING THE POTENTIAL FLOODING THREAT. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS WELL.

PLEASE STAY TUNED TO THE LATEST FORECASTS AND STATEMENTS FROM THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SHREVEPORT CONCERNING THIS POTENTIAL
FLOOD THREAT.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS...HAM RADIO OPERATORS...AND EMERGENCY
MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED ACROSS EAST TEXAS AND
POSSIBLE NORTHWEST LOUISIANA THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

15

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