Flash Flood Watch 6, NWS San Diego, CA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
900 AM PDT SAT SEP 1 2007

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER ARIZONA WILL BRING HOT HUMID WEATHER THROUGH
LABOR DAY. MOISTURE IN SOUTHEAST FLOW ALOFT WILL BRING A CHANCE OF
MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS...SOME WITH HEAVY
RAINFALL AND LOCAL FLOODING. COOLER AND LESS HUMID WEATHER IS
EXPECTED FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...

SO FAR THE MORNING IS QUIET UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES...BUT THE
ATMOSPHERE IS READY FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS TODAY. THE
12Z NKX SOUNDING IS QUITE UNSTABLE...EVEN MORE SO THAN IT WAS
YESTERDAY...WHILE MOISTURE IS SLIGHTLY LESS. SOME TSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVE AT LEAST IN THE MTNS WITH MORE
ISOLATED STORMS IN THE DESERT. EASTERLY FLOW IS ENOUGH TO MOVE A FEW
OF THOSE TSTORMS INTO THE INLAND VALLEYS...AND THE MOVEMENT OF
TSTORMS WILL HELP TO DECREASE THE CHANCE OF FLASH FLOODING. THE
FLOW...THE DYNAMICS AND THE MOISTURE LOOK NEARLY IDENTICAL TODAY
THROUGH THE HOLIDAY MON. THE HEAT LOOKS THE SAME TOO EXCEPT FOR
PERHAPS A FEW DEGREES OF COOLING ON MON. A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE
COMING OUT OF THE NORTHWEST TUE AND WED IS LOOKING MORE CONSISTENT
LATELY ON THE STRENGTH AND THE TIMING. THIS WILL BRING A COOLING
TREND AND MORE COASTAL CLOUDS. AS THE TROUGH PASSES...JUST A TOUCH
OF OFFSHORE FLOW DEVELOPS WED AND THU MORNINGS. NOT ENOUGH FOR
REALLY STRONG OFFSHORE WINDS...BUT MAYBE ENOUGH TO DRY OUT THE AIR
AND INCREASE THE FIRE POTENTIAL BRIEFLY. ANOTHER FEATURE TO WATCH IS
THE MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF HENRIETTE. EXTENDED
MODELS SHOW MOST OF THAT MOISTURE GOING INTO AZ ON THU AND FRI NEXT
WEEK...BUT ENOUGH TO CLIP THE SOUTHEAST PART OF OUR REGION AND BRING
SHOWERS AND/OR TSTORMS.

&&

.AVIATION...
011430..TWO MAIN PROBLEMS FOR THE DAY CONTINUE TO BE THE AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND ADJACENT VALLEY AND
DESERT AREAS AND THE MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES AT THE AREA AIRPORTS.

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DEVELOP OVER THE
MOUNTAINS BY LATE MORNING AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. BASES
SHOULD BE AT OR ABOVE FL080 WITH TOPS TO FL450 AT TIMES.
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SHOULD END BY SUNSET BUT MORE THUNDERSTORMS
ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

THE COASTAL EDDY THAT WAS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT DID NOT
DEVELOP SO MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES AT KSAN AND KSNA COULD REACH AROUND
30 TO 32 DEGREES C AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECT NEAR 43 DEGREES AT
KONT AND BETWEEN 45 TO 47 DEGREES AT KPSP.

THE MARINE LAYER REMAINS VERY SHALLOW SO MARINE LAYER STRATUS/FOG IS
NOT EXPECTED TO BE A FACTOR AT ANY OF THE COASTAL AIRPORTS THROUGH
SUNDAY.

&&

.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING FROM 10 AM TO 7 PM TODAY AND SUNDAY FOR
INLAND AREAS...SEE LAXNPWSGX.

&&

PUBLIC...MM
AVIATION/MARINE...HORTON

NWS ON THE WEB AT WEATHER.GOV/SANDIEGO

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