Flash Flood Watch 2, NWS San Diego, CA

000 
WGUS66 KSGX 280145
FFASGX

FLOOD WATCH
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
645 PM PDT FRI JUL 27 2007

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THAT WAS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM HAS BEEN
CANCELED...


CAZ055-056-058-060>062-280245-
/O.CAN.KSGX.FF.A.0002.000000T0000Z-070728T0200Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
SAN BERNARDINO COUNTY MOUNTAINS-RIVERSIDE COUNTY MOUNTAINS-
SAN DIEGO COUNTY MOUNTAINS-APPLE AND LUCERNE VALLEYS-
COACHELLA VALLEY-SAN DIEGO COUNTY DESERTS-
645 PM PDT FRI JUL 27 2007

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS CANCELLED...

THE THREAT FOR HEAVY RAINS OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS HAS
ENDED. 

$$

MOEDE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
930 AM PDT FRI JUL 27 2007

.SYNOPSIS...
MOISTURE IN EASTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS...MAINLY DURING THE
AFTERNOONS AND EVENINGS. A SHALLOW MARINE LAYER WILL CAUSE AREAS OF
COASTAL LOW CLOUDS AND FOG IN THE NIGHTS AND MORNINGS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES.

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-MON)...
THERE WERE PATCHES OF LOW CLOUDS AND FOG IN THE COASTAL AREAS THIS
MORNING AND STRATUS REMAINS QUITE EXTENSIVE OFFSHORE. THERE WERE
ALSO A FEW MID LEVEL DEBRIS CLOUDS. THE 12Z NKX SOUNDING HAD AN
INVERSION BASED BELOW 1000 FT. PRECIPITABLE WATER WAS 1.44 INCHES
AND THE SOUNDING SHOWED MODERATE INSTABILITY. WEAK ONSHORE
GRADIENTS.

UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE OVER THE SW WITH A SERIES OF
WEAK SHORT WAVE TROUGHS MOVING THROUGH THE PAC NW THROUGH THE SHORT
TERM. THERE WILL BE ENOUGH MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY FOR ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE MOUNTAINS TODAY WITH A LITTLE LOWER CHANCE IN
THE DESERTS. THE MOISTURE BECOMES A LITTLE MORE ELEVATED BUT
CONTINUES THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK WHICH WILL MAINTAIN A SLIGHTLY
DECREASED CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IN THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS EACH
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE FLOW ALOFT REMAINS WEAK SO THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE SLOW MOVING AND COULD PRODUCE FLASH FLOODING IN THE
MOUNTAINS AND ADJACENT DESERTS. AN ISOLATED SEVER THUNDERSTORM
CANNOT BE RULED OUT. AN INTERMITTENT COASTAL EDDY SHOULD MAKE THE
MARINE LAYER A LITTLE MORE EXTENSIVE. HOWEVER...THE MARINE LAYER
WILL REMAIN FAIRLY SHALLOW WITH LOW CLOUDS AND FOG MOSTLY CONFINED
TO THE COASTAL AREAS DURING THE NIGHTS AND MORNINGS. THE INCREASED
MARINE INFLUENCE WILL BRING A LITTLE COOLING W OF THE MOUNTAINS.

&&

.LONG TERM (TUE-FRI)...
EXTENDED PROGS INDICATE NOT MUCH CHANGE IN THE GENERAL PATTERN AT
LEAST THROUGH MID WEEK. THERE ARE SOME INDICATIONS OF A DRYING TREND
TOWARD THE END OF NEXT WEEK WHICH WOULD RESULT IN A DECREASE IN
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY.

&&

.AVIATION...
271400Z...MARINE LAYER DEPTH THIS MORNING WAS LESS THAN 700 FEET
BASED ON MDCRS SOUNDINGS. MARINE LAYER DEPTH WILL SHOW LITTLE CHANGE
TODAY BUT MAY DEEPEN SLIGHTLY TONIGHT AND SATURDAY IN RESPONSE TO A
DEVELOPING COASTAL EDDY.  PATCHY STRATUS ALONG THE COAST WITH BASES
AROUND 500 FEET MSL FROM CENTRAL SAN DIEGO COUNTY NORTH TO ORANGE
COUNTY SHOULD BREAK UP BY 16Z. STRATUS SHOULD REFORM ALONG THE COAST
THIS EVENING THEN PUSH LOCALLY INLAND TONIGHT. STRATUS SHOULD MOVE
OVER KSAN BETWEEN 06Z AND 08Z TONIGHT. BASES COULD BE LOW ENOUGH TO
BE BELOW LOCALIZER RUNWAY 27 MINIMUMS. STRATUS SHOULD CLEAR BY 16Z
ON SATURDAY.

ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED LATE THIS MORNING THROUGH SUNSET
FOR THE MOUNTAINS AND ADJACENT DESERT AREAS FROM THE MEXICAN BORDER
NORTH TO NEAR BIG BEAR LAKE. BASES COULD BE AS LOW AS FL080 WITH
TOPS AT OR ABOVE FL400 AT TIMES.  HORTON

&&

.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

PUBLIC...DVA
AVIATION...HORTON

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
500 AM PDT FRI JUL 27 2007

CAZ042-043-048-050-055-056-057-058-060-061-062-281200-
ORANGE COUNTY COASTAL AREAS-
SAN DIEGO COUNTY COASTAL AREAS-
SAN BERNARDINO AND RIVERSIDE COUNTY VALLEYS-THE INLAND EMPIRE-
SAN DIEGO COUNTY VALLEYS-
SAN BERNARDINO COUNTY MOUNTAINS-
RIVERSIDE COUNTY MOUNTAINS-
SANTA ANA MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS-
SAN DIEGO COUNTY MOUNTAINS-
APPLE AND LUCERNE VALLEYS-
COACHELLA VALLEY-
SAN DIEGO COUNTY DESERTS-
500 AM PDT FRI JUL 27 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR
ALL OF EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA.

.DAY ONE... TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT.

MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS IN THE MOUNTAINS AND
DESERTS WITH LOCAL FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN... SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS IN THE MOUNTAINS AND
DESERTS WITH LOCAL FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN WEATHER ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED FOR THIS AREA...
HOWEVER WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER CONDITIONS.

MACKECHNIE