Flash Flood Warning 16, NWS San Diego, CA

000 
WGUS76 KSGX 261440
FFSSGX

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
738 AM PDT SUN AUG 26 2007

CAC073-261515-
SAN DIEGO CA-
738 AM PDT SUN AUG 26 2007

...A FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 815 AM PDT FOR
CENTRAL SAN DIEGO COUNTY...

AT 730 AM PDT...TRAINED WEATHER SPOTTERS REPORTED A THUNDERSTORM 
PRODUCING FLASH FLOODING OVER EASTERN ESCONDIDO.

LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO PAUMA 
VALLEY...ESCONDIDO...SAN PASQUAL AND SAN MARCOS.

DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE
ROADWAY. THE WATER DEPTH MAY BE TOO GREAT TO ALLOW YOUR CAR TO CROSS
SAFELY. MOVE TO HIGHER GROUND.

A FLASH FLOOD WARNING MEANS THAT FLOODING IS IMMINENT OR OCCURRING.
IF YOU ARE IN THE WARNING AREA MOVE TO HIGHER GROUND IMMEDIATELY.
RESIDENTS LIVING ALONG STREAMS AND CREEKS SHOULD TAKE IMMEDIATE
PRECAUTIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY. DO NOT ATTEMPT TO CROSS
SWIFTLY FLOWING WATERS OR WATERS OF UNKNOWN DEPTH BY FOOT OR BY
AUTOMOBILE.

LAT...LON 3317 11733 3325 11730 3339 11682 3324 11669
      3300 11685 3301 11717
TIME...MOT...LOC 1438Z 180DEG 0KT 3314 11705

$$

SCV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
400 AM PDT SUN AUG 26 2007

.SYNOPSIS...
MONSOONAL MOISTURE WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...MAINLY OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS.
OTHERWISE...PARTLY CLOUDY WEATHER WILL DOMINATE THE REST OF THE
WEEKEND WITH PATCHY LOW CLOUDS AT THE COAST. RESIDUAL MID LEVEL
MOISTURE IN SOUTH FLOW ALOFT COULD BRING SOME AFTERNOON CLOUDS TO
THE MOUNTAINS AT TIMES FOR MONDAY THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK.
BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE OVER ARIZONA WILL BRING TEMPERATURES A LITTLE
ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...

.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER OFF THE
COAST CENTERED NEAR 31N/121W. THIS CENTER CONTINUES TO MOVE SLOWLY
NORTHWARD. SATELLITE AND RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS ENHANCED MID LEVEL
CLOUDINESS AND WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS IN THE DIFLUENT AREA TO THE
NORTH AND EAST OF THE CENTER. A FEW OF THESE SHOWERS COULD GRAZE
PORTIONS OF THE OUTER COASTAL WATERS THROUGH SUNRISE. OTHERWISE...
HIGHER PWS WILL REMAIN ACROSS SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA TODAY WITH
STEERING LEVEL FLOW TRANSITIONING FROM THE SOUTHEAST TO THE SOUTH.
CANT RULE OUT THE POSSIBILITY OF ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITH FLASH
FLOOD PRODUCING RAINFALL IN THE MOUNTAINS AND ADJACENT DESERT AREAS
THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY EVENING. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE SUBPAR
NATURE OF THE MONSOON THIS SUMMER...NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE THAT THERE
WILL BE SUFFICIENT COVERAGE OF ANY FLASH FLOOD PRODUCING
THUNDERSTORMS TO JUSTIFY A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. IF THE 12Z NKX SOUNDING SHOWS SOMETHING SIGNIFICANTLY
DIFFERENT THAN EXPECTED...THE DAY SHIFT COULD RECONSIDER.

NO CHANGE TO TREND FOR DRYING MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH GREATLY
REDUCED POPS FOR MONDAY AND LESS FOR TUESDAY. NAM DOES SHOW AN
INCREASE IN STRATUS COVERAGE FOR TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
MORNING....BUT BY MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY IS BACK TO THE IDEA OF
MINIMAL STRATUS FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK.

&&

.LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER ARIZONA WILL BUILD AND EXPAND WITH TEMPERATURES
RISING TO A LITTLE ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES. MINOR INTRUSIONS OF MID
LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTH COULD BRING SOME AFTERNOON CLOUDS TO
THE MOUNTAINS AT TIMES...BUT IS MARGINAL FOR THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT. LOW POPS ARE IN THE GRIDS...BUT NOT ENOUGH FOR
PRECIPITATING WEATHER.

&&

.AVIATION...
261030Z...MARINE LAYER ABOUT 1500 FT TODAY AND ABOUT 1200 FT MONDAY.
BASES ABOUT 1200 FT MSL TODAY AND 900 FT MSL MON. EXPECT JUST PATCHY
STRATUS AND FOG NEAR THE COAST NIGHT AND MORNING THROUGH MONDAY.
LOCAL VSBY 3-5SM WITH ISOLATED BELOW 3SM ON THE MESAS IN THE
MORNINGS. STRATUS WILL CLEAR OUT ABOUT 17Z AND RETURN LOCALLY ABOUT
03Z. SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE CONTINUES OVER THE AREA WITH WIDELY
SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE
MOUNTAINS...DESERTS AND INLAND VALLEYS. TOPS OF THUNDERSTORMS
40K-50K. LIGHT SOUTHEAST FLOW THIS MORNING...BECOMING SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY...BECOMING WEST MONDAY
AFTERNOON.

&&

.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.

&&

PUBLIC...MARTIN
AVIATION/MARINE...WHITLOW

NWS ON THE WEB AT WEATHER.GOV/SANDIEGO

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
500 AM PDT SUN AUG 26 200

CAZ055-056-058-270100-
SAN BERNARDINO COUNTY MOUNTAINS-RIVERSIDE COUNTY MOUNTAINS-
SAN DIEGO COUNTY MOUNTAINS-
500 AM PDT SUN AUG 26 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR MOUNTAINS OF EXTREME
SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

MONSOONAL MOISTURE WILL BRING A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE FLASH FLOOD POTENTIAL IS MODERATE...
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AND ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING IS
POSSIBLE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

NO WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN ACTIVATION IS REQUESTED FOR THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY
EVENING. WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER CONDITIONS.

CAZ048-050-060>062-270100-
SAN BERNARDINO AND RIVERSIDE COUNTY VALLEYS-THE INLAND EMPIRE-
SAN DIEGO COUNTY VALLEYS-APPLE AND LUCERNE VALLEYS-
COACHELLA VALLEY-SAN DIEGO COUNTY DESERTS-
500 AM PDT SUN AUG 26 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR DESERTS AND VALLEYS OF EXTREME
SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

MONSOONAL MOISTURE WILL BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE FLASH FLOOD POTENTIAL IS LOW...THE RISK
OF FLASH FLOODING IS MINIMAL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

NO WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN ACTIVATION IS REQUESTED FOR THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY
EVENING. WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER CONDITIONS.

MARTIN