Severe Thunderstorm Warning 92, NWS Springfield, MO

000 
WWUS53 KSGF 010934
SVSSGF

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
434 AM CDT FRI JUN 1 2007

KSC021-037-011000-
/O.CON.KSGF.SV.W.0092.000000T0000Z-070601T1000Z/
CRAWFORD KS-CHEROKEE KS-
434 AM CDT FRI JUN 1 2007

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 500 AM CDT
FOR CHEROKEE AND CRAWFORD COUNTIES...

AT 432 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 6 MILES WEST OF
HEPLER TO 6 MILES SOUTHWEST OF FAULKNER...MOVING EAST AT 40 MPH.
THESE STORMS ARE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DESTRUCTIVE WINDS IN EXCESS OF
70 MPH.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE NEAR...
  HEPLER AND MCCUNE BY 440 AM CDT.
  WEST MINERAL BY 445 AM CDT.
  SCAMMON...GIRARD...COLUMBUS AND CARONA BY 455 AM CDT.
  WEIR...ENGLEVALE...ARMA AND PITTSBURG BY 500 AM CDT.

THE TOWNS OF HALLOWELL...GREENBUSH...FAULKNER...MELROSE...SHERWIN...
BRAZILTON...STIPPVILLE...SKIDMORE...ROSELAND AND FARLINGTON ARE IN
THE PATH OF THESE SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS.

THESE ARE DANGEROUS STORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS...IF
YOU ARE IN THEIR PATH SEEK SHELTER INDOORS AND STAY AWAY FROM
WINDOWS.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 500 AM CDT FRIDAY
MORNING FOR SOUTHEAST KANSAS.

LAT...LON 3767 9469 3766 9463 3700 9464 3699 9507
      3737 9507 3738 9508 3767 9509

$$

CLAYCOMB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
306 AM CDT FRI JUN 01 2007

.DISCUSSION...
SEVERAL FORECAST CHALLENGES EXISTED IN TODAYS ANALYSIS.  A LARGE
COMPLEX OF CONVECTION WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE CWA THIS
MORNING...AND TODAYS WEATHER WILL BE DEPENDENT UPON HOW THIS SYSTEM
EVOLVES WITH TIME.  A 35 - 50 KNOT LOW LEVEL JET CONTINUES TO PUMP
COPIOUS AMOUNTS OF MOISTURE TRANSPORT INTO THE SYSTEM.

WITH THE WELL ESTABLISHED COLD POOL MY INITIAL THINKING IS THAT GOOD
AREAL COVERAGE IN MEASURABLE RAIN WILL OCCUR THROUGH THE MORNING
HOURS.  THERE ARE ALSO SOME INDICATIONS ON RADAR THAT A VORTICITY
CENTER HAS DEVELOPED WITHIN THE COMPLEX...WHICH WILL ALSO BE A
FOCUSING MECHANISM FOR CONVECTION TODAY AS IT TRACKS INTO SOUTHERN
MISSOURI.  HAVE YET TO DECIDE HOW WE WILL FOCUS POPS...SO THIS WILL
BE A LAST MINUTE DECISION JUST PRIOR TO PACKAGE ISSUANCE TIME.

THE KANSAS COLD FRONT FINALLY PUSHES INTO SOUTHWEST MISSOURI
SATURDAY NIGHT...THEREFORE A VERY MOIST AND SOMEWHAT UNSTABLE
AIRMASS WILL BE ANCHORED OVER THE CWA THROUGH SATURDAY.  THIS ZONE
OF BAROCLINICITY WILL BE A FOCUS FOR CONVECTION IN JUST ABOUT EVERY
FORECAST PERIOD.  THE LOW LEVEL AIRMASS FINALLY BEGINS TO DRY OUT
SOME BY SUNDAY AS THE FRONT PUSHES SOUTH OF THE CWA.
HOWEVER...MODELS INDICATE SEVERAL SHORTWAVES MIGRATING THROUGH THE
NORTHWEST FLOW...WHICH WILL CAUSE PERIODS OF LIFT AND POSSIBLE RAIN
INTO NEXT WORK WEEK.  WHILE RAIN CHANCES WILL DECREASE...I CAN NOT
COMPLETELY RULE THEM OUT...THEREFORE WILL HAVE AT LEAST A SLIGHT
CHANCE GOING WITHIN THE GRIDS THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

TEMPERATURES IN THE SHORT TERM WERE EXTREMELY CHALLENGING...AND WILL
BE DEPENDENT UPON CLOUD COVER AND PRECIPITATION.  LARGE DIFFERENCES
EXISTED BETWEEN THE MAV AND MET GUIDANCE IN THIS AFTERNOONS MAX
READINGS.  NOT COMPLETELY KNOWING HOW TODAYS CONVECTIVE COMPLEX WILL
EVOLVE...I TOOK A COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE TWO GUIDANCES.  THE REST OF
THE PERIODS I LEANED TOWARD THE WARMER MAV GUIDANCE.  WOULD THINK
THAT EVEN THE MAV MOS IS TOO COOL WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT.  WITH THE MOIST AIRMASS...CLOUDS...AND
PRECIP...OVERNIGHT READINGS MAY HANG IN THE UPPER 60S.

CRAMER

&&

.AVIATION...
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS KANSAS AND NORTHERN OKLAHOMA WILL SPREAD EAST
INTO SOUTHWEST MISSOURI DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. THE STORMS
WILL LIKELY REACH JOPLIN AROUND 09Z AND SPRINGFIELD AROUND 11Z.
GUSTY WINDS IN EXCESS OF 30 KTS AND MVFR VISIBILITIES AND CEILINGS
WILL LIKELY ACCOMPANY THE CONVECTION. UNCERTAINTY INCREASES WITH
TIME TO THE CONVERGE AND DURATION OF THE STORMS AND INCLUDED THUNDER
IN THE VICINITY THROUGH THE PERIOD. WHILE THE CAVITY WILL DECREASE
FRIDAY MORNING...ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE
DAY FRIDAY.

FOSTER

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.

WFO SGF

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
131 AM CDT FRI JUN 1 2007

KSZ073-097-101-MOZ055>058-066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106-020645-
BOURBON-CRAWFORD-CHEROKEE-BENTON-MORGAN-MILLER-MARIES-VERNON-
ST. CLAIR-HICKORY-CAMDEN-PULASKI-PHELPS-BARTON-CEDAR-POLK-DALLAS-
LACLEDE-TEXAS-DENT-JASPER-DADE-GREENE-WEBSTER-WRIGHT-NEWTON-
LAWRENCE-CHRISTIAN-DOUGLAS-HOWELL-SHANNON-MCDONALD-BARRY-STONE-
TANEY-OZARK-OREGON-
131 AM CDT FRI JUN 1 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF THE MISSOURI
OZARKS AND EXTREME SOUTHEAST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

  THUNDERSTORMS WITH A SCATTERED SEVERE STORMS CAPABLE OF
  PRODUCING:
  DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH.
  HAIL TO THE SIZE OF QUARTERS.
  AND VERY HEAVY RAINFALL AND LOCALIZED FLOODING.

  AREAS AFFECTED AND TIMING:

  THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP AND MOVE INTO EXTREME SOUTHEAST KANSAS
  EARLY THIS MORNING...AND SPREAD INTO SOUTHWEST MISSOURI DURING
  THE PREDAWN HOURS. EXPECT SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP SOUTH
  OF A LINE FROM NEVADA TO BOLIVAR...THEN WEST OF HIGHWAY 65.

  DISCUSSION:

  STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS KANSAS WILL PUSH EASTWARD
  INTO EXTREME SOUTHEAST AND FAR SOUTHWEST MISSOURI DURING THE
  EARLY MORNING HOURS. SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY AND WIND SHEAR WILL
  SUPPORT STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS INTO EXTREME SOUTHEAST KANSAS AND
  SOUTHWEST MISSOURI. LATEST DATA SUGGEST THAT THE POTENTIAL FOR
  SEVERE STORMS IS INCREASING AND WILL EXTEND INTO SOUTHWEST
  MISSOURI. DAMAGING STRAIGHT LINE WINDS WILL BE THE PRIMARY HAZARD
  WITH THESE STORMS...BUT LARGE HAIL AND VERY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL
  ALSO BE POSSIBLE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

  AN AREA OF WEAKENING THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED TO BE ONGOING
  ACROSS EXTREME SOUTHEAST KANSAS AND WESTERN MISSOURI FIRST THING
  FRIDAY. AS INSTABILITY INCREASES DURING THE HEAT OF DAY AHEAD OF
  THIS LINE...ROUGHLY ALONG AND EAST OF THE HIGHWAY 65
  CORRIDOR...THIS THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO REDEVELOP
  AND STRENGTHEN. SCATTERED SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE WHERE
  STRONG INSTABILITY DEVELOPS...WITH MAIN HAZARDS BEING DAMAGING
  WINDS AND LARGE HAIL.

 ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE SATURDAY AND SATURDAY
 NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. ISOLATED SEVERE
 STORMS WILL AGAIN BE POSSIBLE...PRIMARILY LATE IN THE DAY WHEN
 INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED TO BE STRONGEST.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

  SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED AFTER 3 AM ACROSS
  EXTREME EASTERN SOUTHEAST KANSAS. SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL MOST
  LIKELY BE NEEDED ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN MISSOURI AFTER 5 AM THIS
  MORNING.

&&

THIS PRODUCT IS NOW AVAILABLE IN GRAPHICAL FORMAT...ALONG WITH
OTHER WEATHER...HYDROLOGICAL AND CLIMATE INFORMATION...AT
HTTP://WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/SGF(ALL LOWERCASE)

CLAYCOMB