Alert archive / Missouri / Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in 2007

Severe Thunderstorm Warning 69, NWS Springfield, MO

May 6, 2007Cedar County, Missouri

NWS Springfield, MO issued this severe thunderstorm warning at May 6, 2007, 4:02 PM CDT for Cedar County, Missouri. It was in force for 43 min. No storm report in the archive falls inside the area while it was in force.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued: May 6, 2007, 4:02 PM CDT (21:02 UTC)
Expired: May 6, 2007, 4:45 PM CDT
In force: 43 min
Issued by: NWS Springfield, MO
Area: Counties, with a storm outline in the text

County Cedar County, MO

The radar

The Springfield radar (KSGF), 79 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 21:04 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

Did it verify

Verified. The Iowa Environmental Mesonet's Cow matched 2 storm reports to this severe thunderstorm warning; the first came 18 minutes after it went out.

Cow counts a report within 15 km of the polygon while the warning was in force: a tornado for a tornado warning; hail of 1 inch or more, a gust of 58 mph or more or wind damage for a severe thunderstorm warning; a flash flood report for a flash flood warning.

The nearest sounding before it

Springfield, MO (KSGF), launched 12:00Z, 9.0 hours before the alert went out and 103 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-p

Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.

Hodograph

The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.

Mixed-layer CAPE: 1328 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN: -120 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL: 1003 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear: 20 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity: 149 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity: 197 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter: 0.0
Supercell composite: 0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

000 
WUUS53 KSGF 062102
SVRSGF
MOC039-062200-
/O.NEW.KSGF.SV.W.0069.070506T2102Z-070506T2200Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
402 PM CDT SUN MAY 6 2007

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SPRINGFIELD HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
  CEDAR COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST MISSOURI...

* UNTIL 500 PM CDT.

* AT 400 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
  SEVERE THUNDERSTORM 11 MILES SOUTHWEST OF EL DORADO SPRINGS...OR 11
  MILES EAST OF NEVADA...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 30 MPH. THIS STORM IS
  CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE HAIL...AND DAMAGING WINDS IN
  EXCESS OF 60 MPH.

* THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
  EL DORADO SPRINGS BY 415 PM CDT.

THE TOWN OF CEDAR SPRINGS IS ALSO IN THE PATH OF THIS SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM.

THIS IS A DANGEROUS STORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS...IF YOU ARE IN ITS PATH SEEK SHELTER INDOORS AND STAY
AWAY FROM WINDOWS.

LAT...LON 3788 9383 3784 9383 3782 9381 3782 9377
      3782 9381 3781 9383 3775 9398 3775 9407
      3788 9407

$$

CRAMER

1 follow-up statement

000 
WWUS53 KSGF 062145
SVSSGF

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
446 PM CDT SUN MAY 6 2007

MOC039-062156-
/O.CAN.KSGF.SV.W.0069.000000T0000Z-070506T2200Z/
CEDAR MO-
446 PM CDT SUN MAY 6 2007

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR NORTHWESTERN CEDAR COUNTY IS
CANCELLED...

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED THAT THE SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM THAT PROMPTED THE WARNING IS EXITING THE WARNED AREA...
THUS THE WARNING HAS BEEN CANCELLED.

LAT...LON 3788 9383 3784 9383 3782 9381 3782 9377
      3782 9381 3781 9383 3775 9398 3775 9407
      3788 9407

$$

CRAMER

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this severe thunderstorm warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Springfield, MO wrote its last area forecast discussion before this severe thunderstorm warning went out at May 6, 2:45 PM CDT, 1 hour 17 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, May 6, 2:45 PM CDT, 1 hour 17 minutes before

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
245 PM CDT SUN MAY 6 2007

.DISCUSSION...

FORECAST CHALLENGES CONTINUE TO BE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT THIS
AFTERNOON...ALONG WITH PRECIP CHANCES THROUGH THE WEEK.

CURRENTLY...OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM CONVECTION OVER NORTHERN MISSOURI
SLOWLY MAKING ITS WAY SOUTH. THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY MAINLY BEHIND THE
BOUNDARY. OTHERWISE...NO LIFTING MECHANISM TO GET THUNDERSTORMS
GOING. WE DID AN 18Z SOUNDING FOR SPC...STILL SHOWING CAPS AT 850MB
AND 650MB. CAPES AROUND 3100 J/KG WITH CIN -30 J/KG. A LOT OF
INSTABILITY...BUT WITH LACK OF TRIGGER...GOING TO BE HARD PRESSED TO
GET ANY WIDESPREAD CONVECTION GOING. MM5 MODEL SHOWING SOME FAIRLY
GOOD LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ACROSS SOUTHEAST KANSAS AND
WESTERN MISSOURI ALONG WHATS LEFT OF AN OLD STATIONARY FRONT...CAN
SEE FAIRLY GOOD ON SATELLITE IMAGERY. NOT MUCH SHEAR FROM THE 18Z
SOUNDING...DO HAVE A SOUTHWEST LLVL JET OF 30KTS AT 4500FT WITH
0-3KM HELICITIES OF 99 M2/S2. SO DONT THINK TORNADOES WILL BE A
PROBLEM TODAY. BUT SINCE THE TORNADO WATCH IS OUT...DECIDED TO LET
IT RIDE A FEW MORE HOURS...AT LEAST THROUGH SUNSET TO SEE IF
ANYTHING DEVELOPS.

GIVEN POOR PERFORMANCE OF MODELS OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS...PRECIP
CHANCES REMAIN QUESTIONABLE. DECIDED TO GO WITH INHERITED POPS THIS
FORECAST CYCLE. GFS SHOWING RIDGE REMAINING FIRM OVER THE AREA
THROUGH TUESDAY. UPPER LOW VERY SLOWLY MOVES EAST ACROSS THE STATE
GIVING CHANCE POPS THROUGHOUT THE WEEK.

GCC

&&

.AVIATION...

FOR THE 18Z SGF TAFS...CUMULUS FIELD AOA 3500 WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
00Z WITH A BROKEN DECK OF 3500/4500 POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS. OUTFLOW BOUNDARY ACROSS WEST CENTRAL MISSOURI THIS AFTERNOON
WILL LIKELY HOLD STEADY OR RETROGRADES NORTHWARD...OR EVEN WASHOUT.
THEREFORE...ONLY THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY DEPEND UPON THE
AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY FROM ANY TYPE OF OUTFLOW BOUNDARY NEAR
KSGF/KJLN. BEST CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WITH MVFR/IFR
CEILINGS/VISIBILITIES WILL OCCUR AROUND KJLN. WILL UPDATE TAFS IF
ANY DEVIATION OF CURRENT TRENDS INDICATE. JLT

FOR THE 18Z PLEASANT HILL TAFS...MORNING MCS AND OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES
INDICATED A PERSISTENT EAST/NORTHEAST WIND DURING THE EARLY
AFTERNOON PERIOD. MVFR CEILINGS WILL OCCUR WITH ANY HEAVIER
CONVECTIVE CELLS. HAVE ONLY ALLOWED FOR A TEMPORARY PERIOD THROUGH
20Z AND WILL UPDATE IF CURRENT TRENDS INDICATE. HOWEVER...MORNING
MCS WILL LIKELY DAMPER ANY EXTREME INSTABILITY TRENDS...SO
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SHOULD BE MODERATE TO STRONG. DONT EXPECT
SEVERE ACTIVITY THROUGH THE NEXT 3/6 HOURS. AFTER 00Z...THUNDERSTORM
POTENTIAL WILL LIKELY INCREASE AS THE LOW LEVEL JET INCREASES AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY FROM OKLAHOMA AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS MOVES
NORTHWARD. JLT

&&

SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.

WFO SGF

Hazardous weather outlook, May 6, 2:30 PM CDT, 1 hour 32 minutes before

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
230 PM CDT SUN MAY 6 2007

KSZ073-097-101-MOZ055>058-066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106-071815-
BOURBON-CRAWFORD-CHEROKEE-BENTON-MORGAN-MILLER-MARIES-VERNON-
ST. CLAIR-HICKORY-CAMDEN-PULASKI-PHELPS-BARTON-CEDAR-POLK-DALLAS-
LACLEDE-TEXAS-DENT-JASPER-DADE-GREENE-WEBSTER-WRIGHT-NEWTON-
LAWRENCE-CHRISTIAN-DOUGLAS-HOWELL-SHANNON-MCDONALD-BARRY-STONE-
TANEY-OZARK-OREGON-
101 PM CDT SUN MAY 6 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF THE MISSOURI
OZARKS AND EXTREME SOUTHEAST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

  WEATHER HAZARDS EXPECTED:

  SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS SOME OF WHICH MAY BE SEVERE WITH HAIL TO
  THE SIZE OF QUARTERS AND WIND GUSTS TO 60 MPH. ISOLATED
  TORNADOES ARE ALSO POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS.

  HEAVY RAINFALL THAT MAY LEAD TO FLASH FLOODING

  AREAS AFFECTED AND TIMING:

  THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS ALL OF EXTREME SOUTHEAST
  KANSAS AND THE MISSOURI OZARKS THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING...
  AND WILL CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE TONIGHT WEST OF AN OSCEOLA TO
  CASSVILLE LINE. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE MAINLY
  WEST OF A WARSAW TO AVA LINE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS
  EVENING.

  FLASH FLOODING IS POSSIBLE NORTH OF A LINE FROM BRONSON TO
  HERMITAGE TO VIENNA THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING.

  DISCUSSION:

 THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP ACROSS EASTERN KANSAS BY
 NOON AND MOVE INTO WESTERN MISSOURI THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. WIND
 SHEAR MAY BE SUFFICIENT FOR A SEVERE STORMS FROM NOON INTO EARLY
 THIS EVENING WEST OF A WARSAW TO AVA LINE. ISOLATED
 TORNADOES...HAIL TO THE SIZE OF WALNUTS AND WIND GUSTS TO 60 MPH
 ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS EXTREME SOUTHEAST KANSAS AND TORNADO WATCH
 243 IS IN EFFECT THROUGH 6 PM THIS EVENING. HAIL TO THE SIZE OF
 QUARTERS AND WIND GUSTS TO 60 MPH WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS ACROSS
 WESTERN MISSOURI WEST OF A LINE FROM WARSAW TO AVA. THUNDERSTORMS
 ACROSS THE REST OF THE MISSOURI OZARKS MAY PRODUCE HAIL TO THE
 SIZE OF DIMES AND WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH. MOST OF THE THUNDERSTORM
 ACTIVITY WILL QUICKLY DIMINISH THIS EVENING. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
 WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT OVER EXTREME SOUTHEAST KANSAS
 AND WESTERN MISSOURI...BUT THESE STORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE
 SEVERE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

 THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE THROUGH MIDWEEK.
 STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE...BUT SPECIFIC DETAILS
 REMAIN IN QUESTION. THERE WILL ALSO BE A THREAT FOR HEAVY
 RAINFALL AND LOCALIZED FLOODING...MAINLY OVER EXTREME SOUTHEAST
 KANSAS AND WESTERN MISSOURI.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

 SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED ACROSS EXTREME
 SOUTHEAST KANSAS AND WEST OF A LINE FROM WARSAW TO AVA BY 3 PM
 THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

THIS PRODUCT IS NOW AVAILABLE IN GRAPHICAL FORMAT...ALONG WITH
OTHER WEATHER...HYDROLOGICAL AND CLIMATE INFORMATION...AT
HTTP://WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/SGF(ALL LOWERCASE)

CLAYCOMB

In the hours before

Local storm report, May 6, 3:08 PM CDT, 54 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
308 PM CDT SUN MAY 06 2007

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0247 PM     HAIL             BRONAUGH                37.69N 94.47W
05/06/2007  E0.75 INCH       VERNON             MO   PUBLIC

            DIME HAIL IN BRONAUGH

&&

LDOOLEY

Local storm report, May 6, 3:15 PM CDT, 47 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
315 PM CDT SUN MAY 06 2007

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0305 PM     HAIL             LIBERAL                 37.56N 94.52W
05/06/2007  E1.75 INCH       BARTON             MO   EMERGENCY MNGR

            EMERGENCY MANAGER REPORTED GOLF BALL HAIL

&&

LDOOLEY

Local storm report, May 6, 3:28 PM CDT, 34 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
328 PM CDT SUN MAY 06 2007

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0251 PM     HAIL             BRONAUGH                37.69N 94.47W
05/06/2007  E1.00 INCH       VERNON             MO   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            QUARTER HAIL REPORTED BY LAW ENFORCEMENT

&&

LDOOLEY

Local storm report, May 6, 3:34 PM CDT, 28 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
334 PM CDT SUN MAY 06 2007

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0303 PM     HAIL             2 NW BRONAUGH           37.71N 94.49W
05/06/2007  E0.75 INCH       VERNON             MO   EMERGENCY MNGR

            DIME HAIL REPORTED BY EMERGENCY MANAGER

&&

LDOOLEY

Local storm report, May 6, 3:38 PM CDT, 24 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
338 PM CDT SUN MAY 06 2007

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0337 PM     FLASH FLOOD      1 E DEERFIELD           37.84N 94.49W
05/06/2007                   VERNON             MO   EMERGENCY MNGR

            EMERGENCY MANAGER REPORTED WATER OVER THE ROAD ON HIGHWAY
            54 1.5 MILES EAST OF DEERFIELD

&&

LDOOLEY

Local storm report, May 6, 3:50 PM CDT, 12 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
350 PM CDT SUN MAY 06 2007

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0349 PM     HAIL             2 S MILO                37.73N 94.31W
05/06/2007  E1.00 INCH       VERNON             MO   EMERGENCY MNGR

            EMERGENCY MANAGER REPORTED QUARTER HAIL

&&

LDOOLEY

The office that day

Everything else NWS Springfield, MO issued on the same UTC day.

Issued	Product	Office	Counties	Lasted
May 6, 1:39 PM CDT	Flash Flood Warning	SGF	Benton	6 hr
May 6, 2:08 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	SGF	Morgan	28 min
May 6, 2:13 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	SGF	Vernon	77 min
May 6, 3:01 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	SGF	Barton	43 min
May 6, 3:21 PM CDT	Flash Flood Warning	SGF	Vernon	6 hr
May 6, 3:26 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	SGF	Vernon	79 min
May 6, 3:53 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	SGF	St. Clair	71 min
May 6, 4:59 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	SGF	Barton	18 min
May 6, 5:01 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	SGF	Vernon	89 min

Nearby

Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in Missouri, 2007 Every severe thunderstorm warning in 2007

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.