Severe Thunderstorm Warning 168, NWS Springfield, MO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
145 PM CDT SUN JUL 15 2007

.DISCUSSION...

FORECAST CHALLENGE CONTINUES TO BE ON POPS THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEK.

CURRENTLY...BOUNDARY MAKING ITS WAY INTO SOUTHERN MISSOURI EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWING MOST CU DEVELOPMENT SO FAR
IN OUR EASTERN CWA TO SOUTH OF SPRINGFIELD. GOING FORECAST FOR POPS
CONTINUES TO LOOK GOOD WITH HIGHEST CHANCES IN SOUTHEASTERN PORTIONS
OF THE CWA. ONLY A DEGREE OR TWO FROM CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURE...SO
SHOULD START TO SEE CONVECTION BEGINNING OVER THIS AREA SHORTLY. 12Z
SGF SOUNDING SHOWING AROUND 3000 J/KG CAPES...SO SOME STORMS THAT
DEVELOP COULD GO QUICKLY SEVERE.

TONIGHT...THUNDERSTORMS MAY PERSIST INTO THE MID EVENING HOURS ALONG
THAT BOUNDARY AS IT CONTINUES TO SLOWLY MOVE SOUTH. GFS HAS BOUNDARY
DOWN NEAR THE ARKANSAS/MISSOURI STATE LINE AROUND 06Z. ANOTHER MCS
DEVELOPS OVER CENTRAL KANSAS LATER IN THE EVENING AND TRACKS
SOUTHEAST. WENT AHEAD AND ADDED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS SOUTHEAST
KANSAS AND SOUTHWESTERN MISSOURI TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS POSSIBLE
DEVELOPMENT...THOUGH MOST SHOULD STAY OVER IN KANSAS. AREAS THAT
RECEIVE RAINFALL THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WILL PROBABLY WAKE UP TO
SOME LOCALLY DENSE FOG AS WELL AND WENT AHEAD AND ADDED PATCHY DENSE
FOG TO THE OVERNIGHT FORECAST AS WELL.

MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS LOOK
TO BE A POSSIBILITY THROUGH THE WEEK...THOUGH NOT WIDESPREAD. STILL
LOOKS LIKE A GOOD WEEK FOR OUTDOOR/FARMING ACTIVITIES. GET THAT HAY
BAILED EARLY IN THE WEEK. GFS BRINGS A FAIRLY STRONG UPPER LOW INTO
THE AREA FRIDAY. ECMWF SUPPORTS ANOTHER COLD FRONT/BOUNDARY PUSHING
INTO THE AREA AS WELL FRIDAY. WENT AHEAD AND ADDED SLIGHTLY HIGHER
POPS IN THE FORECAST FRIDAY. WILL NEED TO MONITOR THIS FEATURE
THROUGH THE WEEK AND MAY NEED TO CONTINUE RAISING POPS IF WE GET
SOME MORE RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY.

GCC

&&

.AVIATION...

FOR THE 18Z TAFS...A FEW CUMULUS CLOUDS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE OZARKS
THIS AFTERNOON. WITH TEMPERATURES FORECAST TO REACH NEAR THE
CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURE...HAVE CONTINUED VICINITY THUNDER FOR JOPLIN
AND SPRINGFIELD THIS AFTERNOON. STORMS MAY INITIATE ALONG ANY
BOUNDARIES LEFT OVER FROM THIS MORNINGS CONVECTION AND THE WEAK
FRONT THAT PUSHED INTO THE AREA OVERNIGHT. OTHERWISE...THE REGION
WILL SEE VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

HATCH
&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1245 PM CDT SUN JUL 15 2007

KSZ073-097-101-MOZ055>058-066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106-161745-
BOURBON-CRAWFORD-CHEROKEE-BENTON-MORGAN-MILLER-MARIES-VERNON-
ST. CLAIR-HICKORY-CAMDEN-PULASKI-PHELPS-BARTON-CEDAR-POLK-DALLAS-
LACLEDE-TEXAS-DENT-JASPER-DADE-GREENE-WEBSTER-WRIGHT-NEWTON-
LAWRENCE-CHRISTIAN-DOUGLAS-HOWELL-SHANNON-MCDONALD-BARRY-STONE-
TANEY-OZARK-OREGON-
1245 PM CDT SUN JUL 15 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF THE MISSOURI
OZARKS AND EXTREME SOUTHEAST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

 WEATHER HAZARDS EXPECTED:

  ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WITH WIND GUSTS TO
  60 MPH...HAIL TO THE SIZE OF QUARTERS...HEAVY RAINFALL AND
  CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING.

  AREAS AFFECTED AND TIMING:

  THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE TODAY ACROSS ALL OF EXTREME
  SOUTHEAST KANSAS AND THE MISSOURI OZARKS...AND EARLY THIS
  EVENING ACROSS SOUTHERN MISSOURI.

  DISCUSSION:

  ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP AS A
  WEAK COLD FRONT ADVANCES SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. A FEW
  THUNDERSTORMS WILL THEN BE POSSIBLE OVER SOUTHERN MISSOURI
  THIS EVENING...BUT WILL DIMINISH WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME
  HEATING. WIND GUSTS TO 60 MPH...HAIL TO THE SIZE OF
  QUARTERS...HEAVY RAINFALL AND CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING WILL
  BE THE MAIN THREATS WITH THESE STORMS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

 A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR MAINLY AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS WILL THEN
  CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THIS WEEK AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW
  PRESSURE REMAINS JUST SOUTHWEST OF THE OZARKS. THE BEST CHANCE
  FOR STORMS WILL BE OVER SOUTH CENTRAL MISSOURI.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

 SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED SOUTH OF A LINE FROM
 SALEM TO SPRINGFIELD TO CASSVILLE BY 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON AND
 ACROSS THE REST THE FORECAST AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

THIS PRODUCT IS NOW AVAILABLE IN GRAPHICAL FORMAT...ALONG WITH
OTHER WEATHER...HYDROLOGICAL AND CLIMATE INFORMATION...AT
HTTP://WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/SGF(ALL LOWERCASE)

CLAYCOMB

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
235 PM CDT SUN JUL 15 2007

MOZ083-152000-
DENT MO-
235 PM CDT SUN JUL 15 2007

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT FOR DENT COUNTY UNTIL 300 PM CDT...

AT 230 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 12 MILES WEST OF BUNKER...OR 12 MILES SOUTHEAST
OF SALEM...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 5 MPH.

PENNY SIZE HAIL...AND WINDS AROUND 50 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS
STORM.

HATCH

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
240 PM CDT SUN JUL 15 2007

MOZ092-152015-
WRIGHT MO-
240 PM CDT SUN JUL 15 2007

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT FOR WRIGHT COUNTY UNTIL 315 PM CDT...

AT 235 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 6 MILES NORTH OF HARTVILLE...OR 19 MILES
NORTHWEST OF MOUNTAIN GROVE...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 5 MPH.

PENNY SIZE HAIL...AND WINDS AROUND 50 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS
STORM.

HATCH