Flash Flood Warning 75, NWS Springfield, MO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
306 PM CDT FRI JUN 01 2007

.DISCUSSION...

CURRENTLY...AIRMASS IS UNDERGOING A RECOVERY PHASE IN THE WAKE OF
THIS MORNINGS DECAYING CONVECTION. TEMPERATURES HAVE JUMPED BACK
INTO THE LOWER 80S AREA WIDE...WITH DEWPOINTS MAKING THEIR WAY BACK
INTO THE 60S AFTER DIPPING INTO THE 50S ACROSS WESTERN PORTIONS OF
THE CWA. VIS/IR SAT IMAGERY (AND A LOOK OUTSIDE THE DOOR) SHOWING
VERY LITTLE CU DEVELOPMENT AT THIS HOUR. THIS SHOULD CHANGE AS WHAT
LITTLE INHIBITION REMAINS IS ERODED DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
NEVERTHELESS...WITH THE REGION BETWEEN MID LEVEL DISTURBANCES
ALOFT...ANY SHRA/TSRA DEVELOP WILL BE ON THE SCATTERED SIDE.

TONIGHT AND SATURDAY...PRIMARY FORECAST CHALLENGE WILL BE CHANCES
FOR SHRA/TSRA. THE UPPER LOW OVER THE DAKOTAS CONTINUES TO SEND A
SERIES OF DISTURBANCES ACROSS THE PLAINS STATES. THE 12Z SUITE OF
SHORT RANGE GUIDANCE DID NOT INITIALIZE BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE VERY
WELL...AND THEIR RESPECTIVE REPRESENTATIONS OF CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT ARE SUSPECT. NEVERTHELESS...ONGOING DEVELOPMENT OVER
CENTRAL KANSAS WILL CONTINUE TO EVOLVE AND AFFECT THE REGION
OVERNIGHT AS THE NEXT IN A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES IS SENT OUR WAY.
FOLLOWING THE TRENDS OF THE 03Z AND 09Z SREF...IT APPEARS THAT THE
BULK OF ANY PRECIP TONIGHT WILL BE CONFINED TO THE NW THIRD TO HALF
OF THE CWFA AS DEVELOPMENT CONTINUES ALONG A COLD FRONT ACROSS
CENTRAL KANSAS. THIS FEATURE WILL SLOWLY...BUT DELIBERATELY SHIFT TO
THE EAST AND APPROACH THE NW CWA ON SATURDAY.

THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SUBSTANTIAL COLD POOL...SUCH AS ONE THAT
AFFECTED THE AREA THIS MORNING...IS A LITTLE LESS LIKELY TONIGHT.
DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND INSTABILITY REMAINS MARGINAL AND CORFIDI
VECTORS SUGGEST AN ELONGATED AXIS OF TSRA ORIENTED NE/SW COMPLEX.
ANY SUBSTANTIAL FORWARD PROPAGATION APPEARS TO BE HEADED JUST TO OUR
NORTH...WITH THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE TSRA MAKING MUCH SLOWER
PROGRESS TO THE EAST. WILL ALTER THE ORIENTATION OF THE FLASH FLOOD
WATCH WITH THE ISSUANCE OF THIS PACKAGE...REMOVING THE SOUTHERN
COUNTIES AND EXTENDING THE TIME OF THE WATCH ACROSS THE NW THIRD OF
THE CWA.

BY MIDDAY SATURDAY AND BEYOND...A LOW END RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER IS
PLAUSIBLE ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA. DEEP LAYER SHEAR REMAINS MARGINAL
(30KTS AT BEST) AND MID 60S DEWPOINTS SHOULD YIELD MLCAPE VALUES IN
THE 1500-2000 J/KG RANGE. ASSUMING TEMPS DO REACH THE LOWER 80S ONCE
AGAIN...THE EXPECTED SHEAR AND INSTABILITY SHOULD BE JUST ENOUGH TO
SUPPORT A FEW SEVERE STORMS...MOST LIKELY ACROSS THE EASTERN TWO
THIRDS OF THE AREA.

CONVECTION SHOULD LINGER ACROSS THE EASTERN AND SOUTHERN CWA INTO
SATURDAY EVENING BEFORE DISSIPATING.

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...THE UPPER LOW OVER THE UPPER
MIDWEST WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT EAST TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES REGION.
THIS WILL KEEP THE ARE IN A NW FLOW REGIME ALOFT. A FEW DISTURBANCE
WILL STREAK THROUGH THE AREA DURING THIS TIME...BUT CONFIDENCE IN
TIMING AND OVERALL SENSIBLE WEATHER POTENTIAL WARRANTS ONLY A
MENTION OF SLIGHT CHC POPS. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR SEASONAL
AVERAGES.

IN THE EXTENDED...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...MED RANGE MODEL OUTPUT
AND ENSEMBLES CONTINUE DECENT RUN TO RUN CONTINUITY. THE UPPER
PATTERN WILL UNDERGO A GRADUAL TRANSFORMATION FROM A RIDGE
WEST/TROUGH EAST TO TROUGH WEST/RIDGE EAST AS AN UPPER LOW
RETROGRADES ACROSS THE NORTHERN TERRITORIES OF ALASKA. VERY LITTLE
TO HANG ONES HAT ON REGARDING POPS THROUGH AT LEAST THE MID WEEK
TIME FRAME...AND HAVE GONE DRY FOR THIS TIME FRAME. SOME SEMBLANCE
OF CYCLOGENESIS IN THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES IS PROGGED BY THE LATTER
HALF OF NEXT WEEK...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW REGARDING THE TIMING OF
ANY FEATURE AFFECTING OUR REGION. THUS HAVE CUT GUIDANCE POPS FOR
THUR AND FRI TO SLIGHT CHC. TEMPERATURE WISE...A WARMING TREND IS ON
TAP. READINGS WILL STAY AT OR JUST ABOVE AVERAGE TUES...BUT RAPIDLY
WARMING 850MB TEMPS FROM BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS SUGGEST HIGHS IN THE
85-90 RANGE BY WED THROUGH FRI.

GAGAN

&&

.AVIATION...
IN THE WAKE OF THE STORMS THAT MOVE THROUGH THIS MORNING CONDITIONS
IMPROVED TO VFR AT BOTH KSGF AND KJLN. EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO
CONTINUE INTO THIS EVENING WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING
IN THE VICINITY OF BOTH TAF LOCATIONS. THIS WILL BE DEPENDENT UPON
CLOUD COVER...AND HOW WELL THE AIRMASS CAN RECOVER FROM THIS MORNING
AND DESTABILIZE.  EXPECT SCATTERED STORMS ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH
SATURDAY MORNING WITH MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE NEAR ANY STORMS THAT
DO DEVELOP.

HATCH

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7PM ALONG AND WEST OF A LINE FROM
     WARSAW TO BRANSON.
KS...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7PM FOR BOURBON...CRAWFORD AND
     CHEROKEE COUNTIES.

WFO SGF

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
945 PM CDT FRI JUN 1 2007

KSZ073-097-101-MOZ055>058-066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106-022315-
BOURBON-CRAWFORD-CHEROKEE-BENTON-MORGAN-MILLER-MARIES-VERNON-
ST. CLAIR-HICKORY-CAMDEN-PULASKI-PHELPS-BARTON-CEDAR-POLK-DALLAS-
LACLEDE-TEXAS-DENT-JASPER-DADE-GREENE-WEBSTER-WRIGHT-NEWTON-
LAWRENCE-CHRISTIAN-DOUGLAS-HOWELL-SHANNON-MCDONALD-BARRY-STONE-
TANEY-OZARK-OREGON-
945 PM CDT FRI JUN 1 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF THE MISSOURI
OZARKS AND EXTREME SOUTHEAST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

  WEATHER HAZARDS EXPECTED:

  SCATTERED STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
  DAMAGING WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH...HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF
  QUARTERS...AND LOCALIZED AREAS OF FLASH FLOODING.

  AREAS AFFECTED AND TIMING:

  SCATTERED STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG AND
  WEST OF HIGHWAY 65 THROUGH 1 AM SATURDAY MORNING.

  DISCUSSION:

  THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THIS EVENING ACROSS MUCH
  OF WESTERN MISSOURI AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS. SUFFICIENT WIND SHEAR
  WILL CAUSE A FEW STORMS TO BECOME SEVERE. THE STRONGEST STORMS
  WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. DUE
  TO THE VERY MOIST AIRMASS IN PLACE...LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING
  WILL BE POSSIBLE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

  ANOTHER COMPLEX OF THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE
  REGION AROUND SUNRISE SATURDAY. THIS ACTIVITY WILL DEVELOP AHEAD
  OF A COLD FRONT...WHICH IS EXPECTED TO STALL OUT OVER SOUTHERN
  MISSOURI BY MIDDAY. THIS FEATURE WILL BE A FOCUS FOR SHOWER AND
  THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT DURING THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON
  HOURS. AT THIS TIME...IT APPEARS THAT SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY
  WILL BE AVAILABLE TO SUPPORT SCATTERED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS...
  PARTICULARLY ALONG AND EAST OF THE INTERSTATE 44 CORRIDOR.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

 SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED THROUGH 1 AM SATURDAY
 MORNING.

&&

THIS PRODUCT IS NOW AVAILABLE IN GRAPHICAL FORMAT...ALONG WITH
OTHER WEATHER...HYDROLOGICAL AND CLIMATE INFORMATION...AT
HTTP://WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/SGF(ALL LOWERCASE)

CLAYCOMB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
900 PM CDT FRI JUN 01 2007

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0855 PM     FLASH FLOOD      3 E ASBURY              37.27N 94.55W
06/01/2007                   JASPER             MO   CO-OP OBSERVER

            COUNTY ROAD 300 BETWEEN OAK ROAD AND BASELINE ROAD
            FLOODED

&&

GCLAYCOM

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
905 PM CDT FRI JUN 1 2007

MOZ070-071-020245-
PULASKI MO-PHELPS MO-
905 PM CDT FRI JUN 1 2007

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT FOR PHELPS AND PULASKI COUNTIES UNTIL
945 PM CDT...

AT 900 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR FORT LEONARD WOOD...MOVING EAST AT 25 MPH.

THIS STORM WILL REMAIN OVER MAINLY RURAL AREAS OF CENTRAL PHELPS AND
SOUTHEASTERN PULASKI COUNTIES. THIS ALSO INCLUDES INTERSTATE 44
BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 156 AND 183.

PENNY SIZE HAIL...AND WINDS AROUND 50 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS
STORM.

SCHAUMANN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
940 PM CDT FRI JUN 01 2007

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0925 PM     TSTM WND GST     FARLINGTON              37.62N 94.83W
06/01/2007  E60 MPH          CRAWFORD           KS   LAW ENFORCEMENT

&&

GCLAYCOM

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
951 PM CDT FRI JUN 01 2007

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0945 PM     FLASH FLOOD      LAMAR                   37.49N 94.28W
06/01/2007                   BARTON             MO   EMERGENCY MNGR

            W HIGHWAY WEST OF LAMAR CLOSED DUE TO FLASH FLOODING

&&

GCLAYCOM

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
953 PM CDT FRI JUN 01 2007

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0945 PM     FLASH FLOOD      10 NNE MINDENMINES      37.60N 94.52W
06/01/2007                   BARTON             MO   EMERGENCY MNGR

            HWY P 5NW OF LIBERAL CLOSED. HWY K 2SW OF LIBERAL CLOSED
            DUE TO FLASH FLOODING.

&&

GCLAYCOM

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
955 PM CDT FRI JUN 01 2007

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0945 PM     FLASH FLOOD      PITTSBURG               37.41N 94.70W
06/01/2007                   CRAWFORD           KS   TRAINED SPOTTER

            SEVERAL STREETS FLOODED IN PITTSBURG.

&&

AFOSTER