Flash Flood Warning 57, NWS Springfield, MO

000 
WGUS73 KSGF 270309
FFSSGF

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1007 PM CDT SAT MAY 26 2007

MOC125-270317-
/X.EXP.KSGF.FF.W.0057.000000T0000Z-070527T0315Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
MARIES MO-
1007 PM CDT SAT MAY 26 2007

...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING WILL EXPIRE AT 1015 PM CDT FOR MARIES
COUNTY...

WHILE A LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN WAS STILL OCCURRING OVER MARIES 
COUNTY...THIS PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO END SHORTLY.  THE EXCESS 
RUNOFF FROM THE STORMS EARLIER IN THE EVENING HAS ALREADY ENDED IN 
THE WARNED AREA.  FLOODING HAS NOT BEEN REPORTED WITH THESE EARLIER 
STORMS AND THE CURRENT PRECIPITATION IS NOT EXPECTED TO CAUSE 
FLOODING TO OCCUR.  THEREFORE...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING WILL BE 
ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 1015 PM.

IF FLOODING HAS BEEN OBSERVED...PLEASE REPORT IT TO YOUR LOCAL LAW 
ENFORCEMENT AGENCY.

LAT...LON 3828 9219 3829 9218 3828 9181 3815 9180
      3814 9178 3805 9177 3806 9192 3802 9198
      3802 9218

$$

LINDENBERG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
305 PM CDT SAT MAY 26 2007

.DISCUSSION...

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP WITHIN THE MOIST
AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS OVER THE OZARKS AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON. THERE ARE NO SYNOPTIC SCALE BOUNDARIES OVER THE AREA.
HOWEVER A WEAK THERMAL BOUNDARY LIES BETWEEN SPRINGFIELD AND JOPLIN
AND EXTENDS NORTHWARD ROUGHLY ALONG HIGHWAY 13. THE STRONGER CELLS
HAVE DEVELOPED EAST OF THIS LINE WHERE GREATER INSTABILITY HAS BEEN
REALIZED.

EXPECT MOST OF THE ONGOING CONVECTION TO DIMINISH SHORTLY AFTER
SUNSET WITH LOSS OF HEATING AND DECREASING INSTABILITY. WILL GO WITH
MINIMUM TEMPERATURES FAIRLY CLOSE TO LAST NIGHTS MINS...WEIGHTED
TOWARD CURRENT DEWPOINT TEMPS WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN MOISTURE
EXPECTED.

FOR THE EARLY PERIODS IN THE FORECAST...PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL
FOCUS MAINLY ON MOVEMENT OF THE FRONT OVER NORTHWEST MO AND ITS
INTERACTION WITH THE RESIDING MARITIME TROPICAL AIRMASS OVER THE
AREA. HAVE FOLLOWED THE NAM OUTPUT FAIRLY CLOSELY AS IT BRINGS THE
FRONT SOUTHWARD INTO THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA LATE
TONIGHT AND SUNDAY... AND THEN STALLS THE FRONT OVER
SOUTHERN/CENTRAL MO SUNDAY NIGHT AS UPPER TROUGH OVER THE NORTHERN
PLAINS LIFTS NORTHEAST TOWARD HUDSON BAY. THE FRONT WILL THEN LIFT
NORTHWARD AS A WARM FRONT ON MONDAY WHEN THE UPPER TROUGH
APPROACHING VANCOUVER DROPS SOUTHEAST INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES.

THE MAIN QUESTION IN THE FORECAST FOR TUESDAY THROUGH THE REST OF
THE WEEK WILL BE HOW QUICKLY OR SLOWLY WILL THE SOUTHEAST U.S. RIDGE
BREAK DOWN AND HOW FAR SOUTHWARD THE UPPER TROUGH MOVING INTO THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES WILL DIG. FOR NOW WILL BASE FORECAST ON COLD FRONT
AND UPPER TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND EARLY
THURSDAY. BEFORE THAT TIME WILL KEEP AT LEAST CHANCE TO SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS IN THE FORECAST WITH MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS
REMAINING OVER THE AREA.

FOR TEMPERATURES...WILL KEEP UPPER 70S TO MID 80S GOING FOR HIGHS
THROUGH THE FORECAST...WITH SLIGHTLY LOWER MIN TEMPS IN THE 50S
AFTER FROM WEDNESDAY NIGHT ON.

TERRY
&&

.AVIATION...
A MOIST AIRMASS REMAINS IN PLACE OVER SOUTHERN MISSOURI TODAY.  AS
AFTERNOON HEATING TAKES PLACE...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL DEVELOP...AND POSSIBLY IMPACT THE SPRINGFIELD AND JOPLIN
AIRPORTS.  MVFR CEILINGS AND POSSIBLY IFR VISIBILITIES WOULD OCCUR
WITH THE STRONGER STORMS.  WILL ALSO MONITOR FOR DOWNBURST POTENTIAL
AS THE 12Z KSGF RAOB SUGGESTED SLIGHTLY STEEPER LOW LEVEL LAPSE
RATES WHEN COMPARED TO YESTERDAY.

WILL KEEP SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST BREEZES GOING FOR WINDS...UNLESS A
STORM CAUSES LOCALIZED FLUCTUATIONS IN WIND DIRECTIONS AND SPEEDS.
AS NIGHT FALLS...STORMS WILL LIKELY DISSIPATE WITH THE LOSS OF
SUNLIGHT AND DESTABILIZATION.  HOWEVER...SUNDAY LOOKS LIKE IT WILL
BE SIMILAR TO TODAY WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHERN MISSOURI.

CRAMER

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.

WFO SGF

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1240 PM CDT SAT MAY 26 2007

KSZ073-097-101-MOZ055>058-066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106-271100-
BOURBON-CRAWFORD-CHEROKEE-BENTON-MORGAN-MILLER-MARIES-VERNON-
ST. CLAIR-HICKORY-CAMDEN-PULASKI-PHELPS-BARTON-CEDAR-POLK-DALLAS-
LACLEDE-TEXAS-DENT-JASPER-DADE-GREENE-WEBSTER-WRIGHT-NEWTON-
LAWRENCE-CHRISTIAN-DOUGLAS-HOWELL-SHANNON-MCDONALD-BARRY-STONE-
TANEY-OZARK-OREGON-
1240 PM CDT SAT MAY 26 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF THE MISSOURI
OZARKS AND EXTREME SOUTHEAST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

  WEATHER HAZARDS EXPECTED:

 STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
 LOCALIZED AREAS OF FLASH FLOODING AND FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND
 LIGHTNING. A FEW OF THE STRONGER STORMS WILL PRODUCE HAIL UP TO
 THE SIZE OF QUARTERS AND DOWNBURST WINDS UP TO 60 MPH.

  AREAS AFFECTED AND TIMING:

 SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP OVER AREAS OF EXTREME
 SOUTHEAST KANSAS AND THE MISSOURI OZARKS THIS AFTERNOON AND
 THIS EVENING.

  DISCUSSION:

 A MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS REMAINS IN PLACE OVER THE MISSOURI
 OZARKS REGION TODAY. THIS MOISTURE COMBINED WITH DAYTIME HEATING
 WILL CAUSE SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS TO IMPACT THE REGION THIS
 AFTERNOON AND EVENING.  THE LATEST FORECAST ANALYSIS SUGGESTS THAT
 LOCALIZED AREAS OF FLASH FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY
 WITH STORMS THAT ARE MOVING SLOWLY OR TRAINING OVER A PARTICULAR
 LOCATION. ALSO...SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY WILL BE AVAILABLE FOR
 A FEW MARGINALLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THAT WILL BE CAPABLE OF
 PRODUCING HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF QUARTERS AND DOWNBURST WIND
 GUSTS UP TO 60 MPH. FINALLY...FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING
 IS LIKELY...THEREFORE AREA INTERESTS THAT HAVE WEEKEND OUTDOOR
 PLANS SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE WEATHER CONDITIONS THROUGH THIS
 EVENING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

 SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE ON
 SUNDAY THROUGH THE MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND AS MOIST UNSTABLE AIR
 REMAINS OVER THE REGION. HEAVY RAINFALL AND LOCALIZED FLOODING WILL
 ONCE AGAIN BE POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL MISSOURI SUNDAY
 AFTERNOON AND EVENING. CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS INCREASE
 WEDNESDAY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES INTO EASTERN KANSAS WEDNESDAY
 AFTERNOON AND INTO THE MISSOURI OZARKS WEDNESDAY EVENING. THE
 POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE...BUT TIMING AND
 AREAS AFFECTED REMAINS UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

  SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED THROUGH TONIGHT.

&&

THIS PRODUCT IS NOW AVAILABLE IN GRAPHICAL FORMAT...ALONG WITH
OTHER WEATHER...HYDROLOGICAL AND CLIMATE INFORMATION...AT
HTTP://WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/SGF(ALL LOWERCASE)

CRAMER

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1138 AM CDT SAT MAY 26 2007

MOZ057-069-261715-
CAMDEN MO-MILLER MO-
1138 AM CDT SAT MAY 26 2007

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT FOR CAMDEN AND MILLER COUNTIES UNTIL
1215 PM CDT...

...THIS SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT IS FOR LAKE OZARK...

AT 1135 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING
A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 5 MILES WEST OF OSAGE BEACH...MOVING NORTHEAST
AT 25 MPH.  THIS STORM IS DEVELOPING DIRECTLY OVER LAKE OZARK...AND
WILL PRODUCE FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING NEAR THE LAKE.
BOATERS AND CAMPERS SHOULD SEEK SHELTER FROM LIGHTNING STRIKES UNTIL
THE STORM PASSES THROUGH.

THIS STORM WILL BE NEAR...
  LAKE OZARK AND LAKELAND BY 1145 AM CDT.

THE TOWNS OF KAISER...LAKEVIEW...BAGNELL AND TUSCUMBIA ARE IN THE
PATH OF THIS STORM.

CRAMER

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
405 PM CDT SAT MAY 26 2007

MOZ080-081-262200-
LACLEDE MO-DALLAS MO-
405 PM CDT SAT MAY 26 2007

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT FOR DALLAS AND LACLEDE COUNTIES UNTIL
500 PM CDT...

AT 401 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 9 MILES NORTHWEST OF CONWAY...OR 9 MILES
SOUTHEAST OF BUFFALO...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 15 MPH.

PENNY SIZE HAIL...AND WINDS AROUND 50 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS
STORM.

THIS STORM MAY IMPACT BENNETT SPRINGS STATE PARK.  CAMPERS AND OTHER
INTERESTS PARTICIPATING IN OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES AROUND BENNETT SPRINGS
NEED TO WATCH THIS STORM CLOSELY...AND TAKE SHELTER IF THE STORM
IMPACTS YOUR AREA.  CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING WILL BE FREQUENT WITH
THIS STORM.

CRAMER