Flash Flood Warning 266, NWS Springfield, MO

000 
WGUS73 KSGF 141825
FFSSGF

TEST...FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT...TEST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
121 PM CDT FRI SEP 14 2007

...THIS MESSAGE IS FOR TEST PURPOSES ONLY...

MOC067-141831-
/T.CAN.KSGF.FF.W.0230.000000T0000Z-070914T2000Z/
/00000.U.DM.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
DOUGLAS MO-
121 PM CDT FRI SEP 14 2007

...THIS MESSAGE IS FOR TEST PURPOSES ONLY...

...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING HAS BEEN CANCELLED FOR THE TEST RIVER
BELOW THE TEST LEVEE IN EASTERN DOUGLAS COUNTY...

THIS IS A TEST MESSAGE. DO NOT TAKE ACTION BASED ON THIS MESSAGE.

LAT...LON 3707 9250 3708 9262 3742 9254 3738 9193
      3709 9204 3705 9215 3706 9217 3706 9248

$$

MOC215-229-142000-
/T.CON.KSGF.FF.W.0230.000000T0000Z-070914T2000Z/
/00000.U.DM.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
WRIGHT MO-TEXAS MO-
121 PM CDT FRI SEP 14 2007

...THIS MESSAGE IS FOR TEST PURPOSES ONLY...

...A FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR THE TEST RIVER BELOW THE TEST
LEVEE REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 300 PM CDT FOR SOUTHWESTERN TEXAS AND
WRIGHT COUNTIES...

THIS IS A TEST MESSAGE. 

THIS IS A TEST MESSAGE. DO NOT TAKE ACTION BASED ON THIS MESSAGE.

LAT...LON 3707 9250 3708 9262 3742 9254 3738 9193
      3709 9204 3705 9215 3706 9217 3706 9248

$$

JLT

000 
WGUS73 KSGF 141826
FFSSGF

TEST...FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT...TEST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
126 PM CDT FRI SEP 14 2007

...THIS MESSAGE IS FOR TEST PURPOSES ONLY...

MOC215-229-141836-
/T.CAN.KSGF.FF.W.0230.000000T0000Z-070914T2000Z/
/00000.U.DM.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
WRIGHT MO-TEXAS MO-
126 PM CDT FRI SEP 14 2007

...THIS MESSAGE IS FOR TEST PURPOSES ONLY...

...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING HAS BEEN CANCELLED FOR THE TEST RIVER
BELOW THE TEST LEVEE IN...SOUTHWESTERN TEXAS AND WRIGHT COUNTIES...

THIS IS A TEST MESSAGE. DO NOT TAKE ACTION BASED ON THIS MESSAGE.

LAT...LON 3707 9250 3708 9262 3742 9254 3738 9193
      3709 9204 3705 9215 3706 9217 3706 9248

$$

JLT

000 
WGUS73 KSGF 141855
FFSSGF

TEST...FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT...TEST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
154 PM CDT FRI SEP 14 2007

...THIS MESSAGE IS FOR TEST PURPOSES ONLY...

MOC215-229-141904-
/T.EXP.KSGF.FF.W.0231.000000T0000Z-070914T1900Z/
/00000.U.DM.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
WRIGHT MO-TEXAS MO-
154 PM CDT FRI SEP 14 2007

...THIS MESSAGE IS FOR TEST PURPOSES ONLY...

...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR THE TEST RIVER BELOW THE TEST 
LEVEE WILL EXPIRE AT 200 PM CDT FOR SOUTHWESTERN TEXAS AND 
WRIGHT COUNTIES...

THIS IS A TEST MESSAGE. DO NOT TAKE ACTION BASED ON THIS MESSAGE.

LAT...LON 3707 9250 3708 9262 3742 9254 3738 9193
      3709 9204 3705 9215 3706 9217 3706 9248

$$

JLT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1237 PM CDT FRI SEP 14 2007

.DISCUSSION...
/300 AM CDT FRI SEP 14 2007/
AS WE WOULD EXPECT FOR MID SEPTEMBER...THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC
PATTERN ACROSS THE LOWER 48 IS BECOMING MORE DYNAMIC.  THIS WILL
ULTIMATELY OFFER SLIGHTLY MORE CHALLENGING FORECASTS THAN RECENT
WEEKS...ALONG WITH HIGHER TEMPERATURE SWINGS AND A COUPLE OF
PRECIPITATION CHANCES THROUGH THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS.  THE INITIAL
FORECAST CHALLENGE IN THIS MORNINGS ANALYSIS WAS TO PINPOINT MAX AND
MIN TEMPS THROUGH THIS WEEKEND.

THEN THE FOCUS TURNED TO MINOR PRECIP CHANCES SATURDAY NIGHT WITH
THE APPROACH OF AN UPPER DISTURBANCE.  MEANWHILE...UPPER RIDGING
BUILDS BACK INTO THE NATIONS MID SECTION BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.  THIS
WILL OFFER A WARMING TREND ALONG WITH SUGGESTING THAT AN EXTENDED
PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER WILL UNFOLD THROUGH NEXT WEEK...OR UNTIL
ANOTHER ACTIVE WEATHER SYSTEM APPROACHES.

SHORT TERM (TODAY - SUNDAY NIGHT)...
A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE THROUGH EXTREME SOUTHEAST KANSAS
AND THE MISSOURI OZARKS THIS MORNING.  NO PRECIPITATION IS
DEVELOPING FROM THIS SYSTEM AS THE OZARKS AIRMASS REMAINS STARVED
FOR MOISTURE.  THIS NEW AIRMASS BEHIND THE FRONT DOES HOWEVER
ACCOMPANY A DECENT SURFACE HIGH...WHICH HAS CAUSED TEMPERATURES OVER
SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA TO TANK INTO THE UPPER 20S  THIS AIRMASS
WILL SPREAD INTO THE REGION TODAY...HOWEVER...IT WILL EXPERIENCE
SOME MODIFICATION.  OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO FALL INTO THE LOW
TO MID 40S TONIGHT.

MAV MOS LOOKS TOUGH TO BEAT...AND HUNG CLOSE TO THESE VALUES.
BASICALLY 925MB AND 850MB TEMPS ARE VERY SIMILAR TO OUR LAST FRONTAL
PASSAGE...WHICH FACILITATED OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOW 50S.
HOWEVER...DRIER BOUNDARY LAYER AIR ACCOMPANIES TODAYS CHANGE IN
AIRMASS...WHICH WILL ENHANCE TONIGHTS COOLING EFFECT...AGAIN
ALLOWING TEMPS TO FALL INTO THE 40S FOR THE FIRST TIME IN A FEW
MONTHS.

BY SATURDAY EVENING...GFS...HI RES ECMWF...AND WRF ALL SIGNAL THE
POSSIBILITY OF A MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE TRACKING ACROSS MISSOURI.
POTENTIAL TEMPERATURE ANALYSIS FROM THE GFS THROUGH THE 305-315
LAYER SUGGESTS THAT DECENT LIFT WILL OCCUR.  DECENT MOISTENING ALOFT
OCCURS...WHICH CAN BE TRACED BACK TO THE BAROCLINIC LEAF DEVELOPING
OVER THE CENTRAL ROCKIES.  MEANWHILE...THE DRY AIRMASS WITHIN THE
LOWER TROP DOES NOT BECOME REPLACED BY THIS TIME.

WOULD THINK THAT WELL SEE SOME HIGH CLOUD BASES WITH AREAS OF
VIRGA.  CAN NOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT THAT SOME SHOWERS WILL MAKE IT
TO THE SURFACE...SO WILL INTRODUCE A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR RAIN SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.  CANT RULE OUT ADDITIONAL LIFT FROM A DEVELOPING
LOW LEVEL JET OVER WESTERN MISSOURI AND EASTERN KANSAS.  AREAS OF
EXTREME SOUTHERN MISSOURI WILL HAVE THE LOWEST CHANCES FOR RAIN
SATURDAY NIGHT.

BY SUNDAY...ANY LINGERING SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY EXIT THE
REGION SETTING UP AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER.  A WARMING
TREND WILL ALSO TAKE PLACE AS UPPER RIDGING BUILDS IN FROM THE
SOUTH.  AS A MATTER OF FACT...MAV MOS SUGGESTS MID 80S OVER
SOUTHEAST KANSAS FOR SUNDAY...AND WILL FOLLOW THIS GUIDANCE CLOSELY.

LONG TERM (MONDAY - THURSDAY)...
WITH UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDING OVER THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY
EARLY NEXT WEEK...THIS FEATURE WILL CONFINE MOST OF THE UPPER LEVEL
ENERGY TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF THE CWA.  THIS WILL ALSO ALLOW FOR
GULF MOISTURE RETURN TO BE GREATER OVER THE SOUTHERN/CENTRAL
PLAINS.  MEX GUIDANCE NOW HAS 90 DEGREE TEMPERATURES OVER THE OSAGE
PLAINS BY MONDAY AND TUESDAY.  SURFACE TO 850MB THICKNESS VALUES
SUPPORTS LOWER 90S SO WILL AGAIN REMAIN CLOSE TO THE MEX SUGGESTIONS.

BY MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK MODELS INDICATE ADDITIONAL AMPLIFICATION
WITHIN THE UPPER FLOW.  DEEP TROUGHING DEVELOPS OVER THE WESTERN
CONUS WHILE INCREASED HEIGHT RISES TAKE PLACE OVER THE EASTERN
STATES.  SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPS OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
WHICH WOULD EVENTUALLY BEGIN TO MOISTEN OUR AIRMASS.  AS OF RIGHT
NOW...THERE ARE NO ACTIVE WEATHER TRIGGERS TO HANG YOUR HAT ON.
RAIN CHANCES ASSOCIATED WITH INCREASING MOISTURE WILL BECOME MORE OF
A SHORT TERM FORECAST PROBLEM.

CRAMER

.AVIATION...

FOR THE 1800 UTC KSGF/KJLN TAFS...WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY MENTION
OF GUSTS UNTIL 0000 UTC. AFTER 0000 UTC...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
WILL RELAX AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD INTO THE
AREA. NORTHERLY WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BRING DRIER AIR INTO THE REGION. THIS DRIER AIR WILL PRODUCE
PREDOMINANTLY VFR CONDITIONS AT BOTH TAF SITES.

ANGLE

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1250 PM CDT FRI SEP 14 2007

KSZ073-097-101-MOZ055>058-066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106-151800-
BOURBON-CRAWFORD-CHEROKEE-BENTON-MORGAN-MILLER-MARIES-VERNON-
ST. CLAIR-HICKORY-CAMDEN-PULASKI-PHELPS-BARTON-CEDAR-POLK-DALLAS-
LACLEDE-TEXAS-DENT-JASPER-DADE-GREENE-WEBSTER-WRIGHT-NEWTON-
LAWRENCE-CHRISTIAN-DOUGLAS-HOWELL-SHANNON-MCDONALD-BARRY-STONE-
TANEY-OZARK-OREGON-
1250 PM CDT FRI SEP 14 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF THE MISSOURI
OZARKS AND EXTREME SOUTHEAST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

  NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL SHIFT ACROSS THE REGION LATE
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THIS FEATURE WILL PROVIDE A
SLIGHT CHANCE FOR A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND NORTH
OF INTERSTATE 44.

ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE LATE NEXT WEEK AS MOISTURE
INCREASES OVER THE REGION.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

  SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED THROUGH TONIGHT.

&&

THIS PRODUCT IS NOW AVAILABLE IN GRAPHICAL FORMAT...ALONG WITH
OTHER WEATHER...HYDROLOGICAL AND CLIMATE INFORMATION...AT
HTTP://WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/SGF(ALL LOWERCASE)

ANGLE