Flash Flood Warning 241, NWS Springfield, MO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
148 PM CST TUE DEC 11 2007

.DISCUSSION...
A LARGE SHIELD OF RAIN CONTINUES TO SPREAD OVER EXTREME SOUTHEAST
KANSAS AND THE MISSOURI OZARKS THIS AFTERNOON.  THIS RAINFALL TRAILS
BEHIND THE LEADING EDGE OF A CANADIAN AIRMASS THAT QUICKLY SURGED
ACROSS SOUTHERN MISSOURI TODAY.  DESPITE THE AIRMASS
CHANGE...TEMPERATURES ACROSS ALL OF MISSOURI AND INTO EASTERN KANSAS
REMAINED ABOVE FREEZING...ALLOWING MOST OF THIS PRECIPITATION TO
FALL AS LIQUID.  THE INITIAL FORECAST CHALLENGE WAS DETERMINING IF A
CHANGEOVER TO SLEET OR SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE BEFORE PRECIPITATION
EXITS THE CWA.  THEN THE FOCUS SHIFTED TOWARD A POSSIBLE EPISODE OF
ACCUMULATING SNOW THAT WOULD IMPACT PARTS OF THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY.

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT - THURSDAY)...
WITH THE ONGOING SHIELD OF RAIN MOVING ACROSS THE CWA...THINK HIGH
POPS SHOULD VERIFY NICELY IN ALL AREAS.  THERE CONTINUES TO BE SOME
QUESTIONS AS TO WHETHER SOME OF THIS RAIN WILL CHANGE OVER TO
SLEET...FREEZING DRIZZLE...OR FLURRIES.  THINK THE BEST CHANCES FOR
FROZEN PRECIP TO OCCUR WILL BE IN AREAS ALONG AND NORTH OF A LINE
FROM COLUMBUS KANSAS...TO SPRINGFIELD...TO EMINENCE MISSOURI.  EVEN
IF THE CHANGE OVER TAKES PLACE...PRECIPITATION INTENSITIES THAT ARE
SUFFICIENT FOR ACCUMULATING FROZEN PRECIP WILL HAVE SHIFTED EAST
PRIOR TO TEMPERATURES FALLING BELOW FREEZING.  THEREFORE ILL BE
HOLDING OFF ON ANY WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY HEADLINES FOR TONIGHT.
HOWEVER...I WILL BRIEF THE EVENING SHIFT THAT THEY MAY NEED TO ISSUE
A SHORT FUSE ADVISORY SOMEWHERE ACROSS THE CWA THIS EVENING.

THIS WAVE OF PRECIP EXITS THE REGION BY 12Z WEDNESDAY SETTING UP A
MOSTLY DRY WEDNESDAY MORNING PERIOD.  A MIXTURE OF LIGHT
RAIN...SLEET...OR SNOW WILL DEVELOP WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE
ACROSS THE EASTERN OZARKS INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT.  DUE TO TEMPERATURES
SLIGHTLY ABOVE OR NEAR 32 DEGREES...ONLY LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS IF ANY
ARE POSSIBLE.  THE UPPER WAVE FINALLY ADVANCES EAST OF THE
OZARKS...WHICH WILL DISCONTINUE THE PATTERN TYPE THATS CONDUCIVE FOR
ICE STORMS.

LONG TERM (FRIDAY - MONDAY)...
FOR THE LAST FEW RUNS OF THE GFS AND ECMWF...A CLEAR SIGNAL EXISTS
WITHIN BOTH SOLUTIONS THAT THE POTENTIAL FOR AN EPISODE OF SNOW WILL
BE POSSIBLE.  CHANCES FOR SNOW ARE GREATER ACROSS SOUTHERN MISSOURI.
THE STORM SYSTEM RESPONSIBLE FOR THIS IS CURRENTLY TRACKING OVER THE
ALASKAN ALEUTIAN ISLANDS.  AS THIS FEATURE TRAVERSES INTO THE
PLAINS...THE SYSTEM STRENGTHENS AND EVENTUALLY PULLS AND INTERACTS
WITH GULF MOISTURE.  SPEAKING OF GULF MOISTURE...THE GULF IS
CURRENTLY UNSEASONABLY LOADED...WHICH DOESNT APPEAR TO CHANGE A
WHOLE LOT FROM NOW THROUGH SATURDAY.

GLANCING AT SEVERAL ISENTROPIC SURFACES FROM THE GFS...THE BEST LOW
LEVEL FORCING WILL BE LOCATED ALONG THE INTERSTATE 20 AND 40
CORRIDORS...WHERE CONVECTION IS LIKELY.  HOWEVER...STRONG ASCENT IS
SUGGESTED WITHIN THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS OF THE LOW (ABOVE
600MB)...AS THE MAIN COLD CORE TRACKS ACROSS SOUTHERN MISSOURI.
ITS A LITTLE EARLY FOR WATCH HEADLINES BUT I DID INSERT SOME
INITIAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS IN THE GRIDS FOR SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 44.
KEPT ACCUMULATIONS WITHIN ADVISORY CRITERIA...BUT THESE WILL BE FINE
TUNED WITH OVER TIME.  THE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE AVAILABILITY IN THE
GULF WOULD SUGGEST HIGHER ACCUMULATIONS...BUT DEEP SOUTH CONVECTION
THAT SOMETIMES INTERFERES WITH NORTHWARD MOISTURE TRANSPORT WOULD
SUGGEST LESS SNOW.  STAY TUNED.

CRAMER

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR THE 1800 UTC KSGF/KJLN TAFS...EXPECT IFR CEILINGS AND VARIABLE
BUT GENERAL MVFR VISIBILITY THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. FRONTAL BOUNDARY
THAT HAS BEEN WAVERING NEAR THE AREA SINCE LAST NIGHT HAS PUSHED
EAST OF BOTH TAF SITES. A LARGE AREA OF LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN HAS
MOVED INTO THE REGION AND WILL GRADUALLY PUSH EAST TONIGHT. CANT
RULE OUT SOME DRIZZLE...FREEZING DRIZZLE...OR A LIGHT WINTERY MIXED
BAG OF PRECIP TONIGHT...BUT THE BULK OF THE HEAVIER PRECIP WILL BE
RAIN. DSA

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.

KS...NONE.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1256 PM CST TUE DEC 11 2007

KSZ073-097-101-MOZ055>058-066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106-121900-
BOURBON-CRAWFORD-CHEROKEE-BENTON-MORGAN-MILLER-MARIES-VERNON-
ST. CLAIR-HICKORY-CAMDEN-PULASKI-PHELPS-BARTON-CEDAR-POLK-DALLAS-
LACLEDE-TEXAS-DENT-JASPER-DADE-GREENE-WEBSTER-WRIGHT-NEWTON-
LAWRENCE-CHRISTIAN-DOUGLAS-HOWELL-SHANNON-MCDONALD-BARRY-STONE-
TANEY-OZARK-OREGON-
1256 PM CST TUE DEC 11 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF THE MISSOURI
OZARKS AND EXTREME SOUTHEAST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

 RAIN WILL BRIEFLY CHANGE TO LIGHT FREEZING RAIN OR DRIZZLE LATE
 THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT NORTH AND WEST OF A LINE FROM COLUMBUS KANSAS
 TO EMINENCE MISSOURI. A LIGHT GLAZE OF ICE IS POSSIBLE...MAINLY
 ON ELEVATED SURFACES. A FEW SNOW FLURRIES WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

 ANOTHER WAVE OF PRECIPITATION WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION
 WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
 WARM ENOUGH TO SUPPORT LIGHT RAIN WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. HOWEVER BY
 WEDNESDAY NIGHT...A MIX OF LIGHT RAIN...LIGHT SLEET AND LIGHT
 SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG AND NORTHWEST OF A LINE FROM BRANSON
 TO EMINENCE. LITTLE...IF ANY...ACCUMULATION OF SLEET AND SNOW IS
 EXPECTED.

 ITS BECOMING MORE CLEAR THAT AN EPISODE OF ACCUMULATING SNOW WILL
 BE POSSIBLE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. THE LATEST FORECAST ANALYSIS
 SUGGESTS THAT AREAS SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 44 WILL EXPERIENCE THE BEST
 CHANCES AT RECEIVING THIS SNOW...HOWEVER...THE EXACT TRACK AND
 STRUCTURE OF THIS STORM SYSTEM REMAINS UNCERTAIN.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

  SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED THROUGH TONIGHT.

&&

THIS PRODUCT IS NOW AVAILABLE IN GRAPHICAL FORMAT...ALONG WITH
OTHER WEATHER...HYDROLOGICAL AND CLIMATE INFORMATION...AT
HTTP://WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/SGF(ALL LOWERCASE)

CRAMER