Flash Flood Warning 232, NWS Springfield, MO

000 
WGUS73 KSGF 260008
FFSSGF

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
708 PM CDT TUE SEP 25 2007

MOC091-260018-
/X.CAN.KSGF.FF.W.0232.000000T0000Z-070926T0200Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
HOWELL MO-
708 PM CDT TUE SEP 25 2007

...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING HAS BEEN CANCELLED FOR EAST CENTRAL HOWELL
COUNTY...

EXCESS RUNOFF FROM HEAVY RAIN HAS ENDED OVER THE WARNED AREA. STREAMS
AND CREEKS IN THE WARNED AREA HAVE RECEDED OR WERE BEGINNING TO
RECEDE...ENDING THE FLOOD THREAT. IF FLOODING HAS BEEN OBSERVED...
PLEASE REPORT IT TO YOUR LOCAL LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCY.

LAT...LON 3682 9191 3689 9167 3679 9168 3678 9168
      3676 9168 3666 9169 3666 9191
TIME...MOT...LOC 0008Z 180DEG 0KT 3677 9175

$$

CRAMER

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
305 PM CDT TUE SEP 25 2007

.DISCUSSION...

THE ANTICIPATED COLD FRONT IS PROGRESSING EASTWARD THROUGH
SOUTHEAST KANSAS AND THE OZARKS. A BROKEN LINE OF SHOWERS AND
STORMS EXTENDS ALONG THIS FRONT FROM WESTERN ILLINOIS TO
EASTERN OKLAHOMA. IN OUR FORECAST AREA...SHOWERS AND STORMS HAVE
BEEN SCATTERED NEAR THE FRONT BUT DO EXPECT SHOWERS AND STORMS
WILL BECOME MORE LINEAR DURING THE EVENING HOURS. IN SOUTHEAST
MISSOURI...ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND STORMS HAVE DEVELOPED WITH THE
AFTERNOON INSTABILITY WHERE THE DEEPER GULF MOISTURE CONTINUES TO
STREAM NORTHWARD. WITH THIS SAID...RAIN CHANCES WILL BE LIKELY
TONIGHT FOR THE FORECAST AREA WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF A FEW AREAS
OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT RADAR
ESTIMATED PRECIPITATION PRODUCTS HAVE BEEN OVER ESTIMATING
RAINFALL AMOUNTS WHEN COMPARED TO RAIN GAUGES.

BOTH THE GFS AND THE NAM ARE IN AGREEMENT WITH A SLOW FRONTAL
PASSAGE THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA. WEDNESDAY MORNING THE FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO BE NEAR A FORT LEONARD WOOD TO BRANSON LINE. THE BEST
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ALONG AND SOUTHEAST
OF THIS FRONT WEDNESDAY. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO CLEAR THE
FORECAST AREA BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THE RAIN CHANCES WILL END.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...BRINGING DRIER AND COOLER AIR. THIS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
MOVES EASTWARD ON FRIDAY WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS RETURNING. WARMER
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED ON SATURDAY WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS INCREASING
AS LEE SIDE TROUGHING DEVELOPS IN THE PLAINS.

WITH THE NEXT SYSTEM...BOTH THE GFS AND NAM ARE SIMILAR WITH A NORTHERLY
TRACK OF THE 500 MB LOW THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THE ECMWF
IS STRONGER WITH THE 500 MB LOW WITH A SOUTHERLY TRACK ALONG
NORTHERN KANSAS. IF THE ECMWF VERIFIES...THEN WE COULD BE DEALING
WITH SEVERE WEATHER LATE IN THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK. FOR
THIS FORECAST PACKAGE...HAVE FOLLOWED THE TAMER GFS AND NAM SOLUTIONS.
BOTH THE GFS AND THE NAM BRING A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
SYSTEM INTO THE FORECAST AREA ON SUNDAY PROVIDING ADDITIONAL
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

ANGLE

&&

.AVIATION...

FRONT BEGINNING TO PUSH INTO THE WESTERN CWA BOUNDARY FROM THE
WEST. CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS IN OKLAHOMA SHOULD CONTINUE LIFTING
NORTHEAST TOWARDS JOPLIN WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO WITH ACTIVITY
DEVELOPING IN SGF BY 20 TO 21Z. CEILINGS WITH THE THUNDERSTORMS
ARE EXPECTED TO BE FROM 1500 TO 2500 AND 4 TO 6 MILES IN
VISIBILITY. OVERNIGHT EXPECTING STRATUS BEHIND THE FRONT WITH
CEILINGS DROPPING INTO THE 600 TO 700 FEET RANGE.

LINDENBERG

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1226 PM CDT TUE SEP 25 2007

KSZ073-097-101-MOZ055>058-066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106-261730-
BOURBON-CRAWFORD-CHEROKEE-BENTON-MORGAN-MILLER-MARIES-VERNON-
ST. CLAIR-HICKORY-CAMDEN-PULASKI-PHELPS-BARTON-CEDAR-POLK-DALLAS-
LACLEDE-TEXAS-DENT-JASPER-DADE-GREENE-WEBSTER-WRIGHT-NEWTON-
LAWRENCE-CHRISTIAN-DOUGLAS-HOWELL-SHANNON-MCDONALD-BARRY-STONE-
TANEY-OZARK-OREGON-
1226 PM CDT TUE SEP 25 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF THE MISSOURI
OZARKS AND EXTREME SOUTHEAST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

  WEATHER HAZARDS EXPECTED:

  THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY
  RAINFALL...FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND SMALL HAIL.

  AREAS AFFECTED AND TIMING:

  ALL OF THE MISSOURI OZARKS AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS THIS
  AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

  DISCUSSION:

 A COLD FRONT INTERACTING WITH A MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS
 WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND
 EVENING. THE STRONGEST STORMS WILL CONTAIN HEAVY RAINFALL
 AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE THAT A FEW
 STORMS COULD PRODUCE HAIL SMALLER THAN THE SIZE OF NICKELS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

 THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS THE COLD
 FRONT EXITS THE AREA.

 ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION SUNDAY...BRINGING A
 CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

 SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED THROUGH TONIGHT.

&&

THIS PRODUCT IS NOW AVAILABLE IN GRAPHICAL FORMAT...ALONG WITH
OTHER WEATHER...HYDROLOGICAL AND CLIMATE INFORMATION...AT
HTTP://WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/SGF(ALL LOWERCASE)

ANGLE/TERRY