Flash Flood Warning 201, NWS Springfield, MO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
255 AM CDT THU SEP 6 2007

.DISCUSSION...
THE CHALLENGE FOR THIS FORECAST PACKAGE CONTINUES TO BE
PRECIPITATION AND THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL LATER IN THE WEEK.
THIS MORNING AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CONTINUES TO TRACK NORTHEASTWARD
THROUGH MISSOURI. IN RESPONSE TO THIS UPPER LEVEL LOW...SHOWERS AND
AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE INCREASED IN COVERAGE. AS THIS LOW EXITS THE
OZARKS...THE RAIN WILL COME TO AN END FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. WITH THIS IN MIND...POPS HAVE BEEN
ADJUSTED ACCORDINGLY.

THE NEXT CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD RAIN ARRIVES ON FRIDAY WITH THE
APPROACH OF A COLD FRONT. MODELS CONTINUE TO SLOW THE ARRIVAL OF
THIS FRONT TO THE FORECAST AREA. AT THIS TIME...IT LOOKS LIKE THE
FRONT WILL BEGIN TO MOVE THROUGH SOUTHEAST KANSAS AND SOUTHWEST
MISSOURI LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON BUT I WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF IT IS
LATER. MODELS SUGGEST A WEAKENING AND A STALLING OF THE FRONT ALONG
THE MISSOURI/ARKANSAS BORDER OVER THE WEEKEND. THIS FRONT WILL HAVE
LOTS OF MOISTURE TO WORK WITH AS PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL
CONTINUE TO BE HIGH. HEAVY RAINFALL AND THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED
FLOODING REMAINS A THREAT WITH THIS FRONT BUT THERE IS STILL
UNCERTAINTY AS TO WHERE THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL WILL OCCUR DUE TO THE
TIMING OF THE FRONT. WITH THIS FRONT EXPECTED TO STALL NEAR THE
SOUTHERN MISSOURI STATE LINE OVER THE WEEKEND...CHANCES FOR RAIN
HAVE BEEN INCREASED IN THIS AREA.

A MORE SIGNIFICANT FRONT WITH STRONGER UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT IS
EXPECTED TO ARRIVE ON MONDAY. THIS FRONT WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS WHICH WILL LIKELY BE MORE WIDESPREAD. AGAIN WITH
PLENTY OF MOISTURE TO WORK WITH THE THREAT OF HEAVY RAIN AND
LOCALIZED FLOODING WILL CONTINUE. THIS FRONT SHOULD BE STRONG ENOUGH
TO MOVE THROUGH THE OZARKS AND COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL MOVE IN
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. THIS COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL PUT AN END
TO THE CHANCES FOR RAIN FOR MOST OF NEXT WEEK IN THE OZARKS.

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&&

.AVIATION...
WIDESPREAD MVFR AND AREAS OF IFR CEILINGS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS
MORNING AT THE SPRINGFIELD AND JOPLIN TERMINALS. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO LOWER THE VISIBILITY INTO MVFR AND POSSIBLY
IFR CATEGORY FOR BRIEF PERIODS THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.
CEILINGS WILL GRADUALLY RISE AND BECOME SCATTERED LATE THIS MORNING
AND EARLY AFTERNOON. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN UP BY MIDDAY
RESULTING IN WIND GUSTS UP TO 25 KTS...ESPECIALLY IN AREAS THAT SEE
SIGNIFICANT SUNSHINE AND MIXING.

FOSTER

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
500 AM CDT THU SEP 6 2007

KSZ073-097-101-MOZ055>058-066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106-071000-
BOURBON-CRAWFORD-CHEROKEE-BENTON-MORGAN-MILLER-MARIES-VERNON-
ST. CLAIR-HICKORY-CAMDEN-PULASKI-PHELPS-BARTON-CEDAR-POLK-DALLAS-
LACLEDE-TEXAS-DENT-JASPER-DADE-GREENE-WEBSTER-WRIGHT-NEWTON-
LAWRENCE-CHRISTIAN-DOUGLAS-HOWELL-SHANNON-MCDONALD-BARRY-STONE-
TANEY-OZARK-OREGON-
500 AM CDT THU SEP 6 2007

...HEAVY RAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH MONDAY...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF THE MISSOURI
OZARKS AND EXTREME SOUTHEAST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

 SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE
 POSSIBLE TODAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW TRACKS NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH
 MISSOURI. DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TONIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

 A COLD FRONT WILL BRING A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY WITH
 THE POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAIN AND LOCALIZED FLOODING.
 ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL BRING A
 CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

  SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED THROUGH TONIGHT.

&&

THIS PRODUCT IS NOW AVAILABLE IN GRAPHICAL FORMAT...ALONG WITH
OTHER WEATHER...HYDROLOGICAL AND CLIMATE INFORMATION...AT
HTTP://WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/SGF(ALL LOWERCASE)

ANGLE