Flash Flood Warning 161, NWS Springfield, MO

000 
WGUS73 KSGF 060208
FFSSGF

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
908 PM CDT THU JUL 5 2007

MOC009-060218-
/X.EXP.KSGF.FF.W.0161.000000T0000Z-070706T0200Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
BARRY MO-
908 PM CDT THU JUL 5 2007

...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING HAS EXPIRED FOR SOUTHERN BARRY COUNTY...

EXCESS RUNOFF FROM HEAVY RAIN HAS ENDED OVER THE WARNED AREA. STREAMS
AND CREEKS IN THE WARNED AREA HAVE RECEDED OR WERE BEGINNING TO
RECEDE...ENDING THE FLOOD THREAT. IF FLOODING HAS BEEN OBSERVED...
PLEASE REPORT IT TO YOUR LOCAL LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCY.

LAT...LON 3661 9366 3668 9408 3649 9408 3649 9368

$$

CLAYCOMB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
236 PM CDT THU JUL 5 2007

.DISCUSSION...

CURRENTLY...REMNANT SFC BOUNDARY LOCATED ROUGHLY FROM KTUL ACROSS
THE MO/ARK BORDER TO JUST SOUTH OF KCGI HAS LIT UP WITH SCATTERED
CONVECTION THUS FAR THIS AFTERNOON. MOST OF THIS ACTIVITY HAS BEEN
ALONG THE MO/ARK BORDER AND POINTS SOUTH...WITH ANOTHER AREA OF
CONVECTION SLOWLY MOVING SOUTHWARD ACROSS SOUTHEAST MISSOURI. CU
FIELD IS ALSO AGITATED ALONG A DEWPOINT DISCONTINUITY LOCATED ALONG
A LINE FROM JUST NORTH OF SEDALIA THROUGH CENTRAL KANSAS. ISOLATED
SHRA/TSRA WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH MUCH OF THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON WITH THE BEST COVERAGE ACROSS SOUTHERN MO. TEMPERATURES
HAVE ONCE AGAIN PEAKED IN THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90F.

TONIGHT...WILL LIKELY MAKE A LAST MINUTE DECISION ON POPS BASED ON
RADAR TRENDS. ACTIVITY WILL BE LARGELY DIURNAL IN NATURE AND WANE
AFTER SUNSET. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN
PREVIOUS NIGHTS GIVEN WEAK NORTHERLY FLOW AND MARGINAL DRY AIR
ADVECTION.

FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...CONTINUED DRYING NOTED ALOFT VIA THE
LATEST SHORT RANGE GUIDANCE AND THIS WILL LIKELY SUPPRESS
CONVECTION FOR MUCH OF THIS TIME FRAME. PERSISTENT AND PESKY
UPPER LOW OVER TEXAS WILL CONTINUE TO BE A FEATURE TO WATCH...BUT
AT THIS POINT IT APPEARS AS THOUGH ANY ASSOCIATED RAINFALL WILL
REMAIN TO OUR SOUTH. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM A FEW MORE DEGREES AS
COMPARED TO THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS. BOTH HIGHS AND LOWS WILL BE
AT OR JUST ABOVE AVERAGE. DEWPOINTS SHOULD REMAIN MANAGEABLE...
THUS HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL LIKELY REMAIN IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER
90S.

MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...MED RANGE MODELS CONTINUE EXHIBIT RUN
TO RUN INCONSISTENCIES...ALTHOUGH A GENERAL PATTERN IS INFERRED
FROM AN ENSEMBLE MEAN OF THE AVAILABLE SOLUTIONS. NORTHWEST FLOW
IS EXPECTED TO REEMERGE OVER THE REGION DURING THE FIRST HALF OF
NEXT WEEK. WILL ALSO NEED TO MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THE UPPER LOW
TO OUR SOUTH. RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE EACH DAY THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS THE UPPER PATTERN AMPLIFIES. DIFFERENCES
AMONGST THE MED RANGE GUIDANCE BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK
CONTINUES TO LEND A BIT OF SKEPTICISM AS TO HOW FAST THIS PATTERN
WILL EVOLVE...AND THEREFORE ONLY MINOR CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE
GOING FORECAST. TEMPERATURES SHOULD TREND TO AT OR JUST BELOW
AVERAGE BY MIDWEEK.

GAGAN

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE THE RULE AT THE SPRINGFIELD AND JOPLIN
TERMINALS THROUGH THIS EVENING. SCATTERED CUMULUS AROUND 4 KFT WILL
DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO DEVELOP MAINLY
TO THE SOUTH OF THE TERMINAL SITES. AREAS OF LIGHT FOG AND HAZE WILL
DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY. MVFR CONDITIONS IN FOG COULD
DEVELOP TOWARD SUNRISE FRIDAY.

FOSTER

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

WFO SGF

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
102 PM CDT THU JUL 5 2007

KSZ073-097-101-MOZ055>058-066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106-061815-
BOURBON-CRAWFORD-CHEROKEE-BENTON-MORGAN-MILLER-MARIES-VERNON-
ST. CLAIR-HICKORY-CAMDEN-PULASKI-PHELPS-BARTON-CEDAR-POLK-DALLAS-
LACLEDE-TEXAS-DENT-JASPER-DADE-GREENE-WEBSTER-WRIGHT-NEWTON-
LAWRENCE-CHRISTIAN-DOUGLAS-HOWELL-SHANNON-MCDONALD-BARRY-STONE-
TANEY-OZARK-OREGON-
102 PM CDT THU JUL 5 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF THE MISSOURI
OZARKS AND EXTREME SOUTHEAST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

  WEATHER HAZARDS EXPECTED:

 ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
 WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.

  AREAS AFFECTED AND TIMING:

 MAINLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE INTERSTATE 44 CORRIDOR THIS
 AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING.

  DISCUSSION:

 DAYTIME HEATING HAS ONCE AGAIN RESULTED IN AN UNSTABLE AIRMASS
 ACROSS THE REGION. A WEAK FRONT ACROSS SOUTHERN MISSOURI WILL AID
 IN ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THROUGH
 THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. A FEW STRONG STORMS ARE POSSIBLE WITH
 WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

 THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE EACH AFTERNOON FROM MONDAY THROUGH
 WEDNESDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

  SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED THROUGH TONIGHT.

&&

THIS PRODUCT IS NOW AVAILABLE IN GRAPHICAL FORMAT...ALONG WITH
OTHER WEATHER...HYDROLOGICAL AND CLIMATE INFORMATION...AT
HTTP://WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/SGF(ALL LOWERCASE)

GAGAN