Flash Flood Warning 130, NWS Springfield, MO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...AVIATION UPDATE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1158 AM CDT FRI JUN 29 2007

.DISCUSSION...

ONGOING FORECAST LOOKS SOLID AND MADE VERY FEW CHANGES.  CLUSTERS OF
THUNDERSTORMS IMPACTED THE EASTERN OZARKS THIS MORNING WHILE A
STATIONARY BAND OF MODERATE RAIN CONTINUED NORTH OF THE CWA.  THIS
BAND WAS CAUSING SOME SERIOUS FLOODING PROBLEMS OVER NW MO AND
PORTIONS OF EASTERN KANSAS.

FOR THIS AFTERNOON...DESTABILIZATION HAS TAKEN PLACE ACROSS SOUTHERN
MISSOURI...WHICH WILL BECOME THE FOCUS FOR ADDTIONAL THUNDERSTORMS
TODAY.  PULSE LIKE STORMS WILL BE THE PREDOMINATE STORM
MODE...HOWEVER...IF LINE SEGMENTS CAN DEVELOP THEN THESE STORMS
COULD PRODUCE SOME DECENT WIND GUSTS GIVEN THE COLD POOL / LOW LEVEL
SHEAR BALANCE THATS PRESENT IN TODAYS ENVIRONMENT.  40 MPH WIND
GUSTS WERE ALREADY OBSERVED IN LICKING THIS MORNING AS A SEGMENT
WENT THROUGH THAT AREA.

WILL MAIN 70% POPS FOR MOST OF THE AREA...WITH AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES CAPPING OUT IN MID AND UPPER 80S.  AN ISOLATED STRONG
TO SEVERE STORM CAN NOT BE RULED OUT...ESPECIALLY OVER SOUTHERN
MISSOURI.  FLASH FLOOD POTENTIAL ALSO EXISTS GIVEN THE TROPICAL
ENVIRONMENT...SO STAY TUNED FOR LATER WARNINGS AND DISCUSSIONS.

CRAMER

&&

.AVIATION...
THE EFFECTS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WERE THE PRIMARY
CHALLENGE IN THIS AFTERNOON AVIATION FORECASTS.  THE TROPICAL LIKE
AIRMASS REMAINS ANCHORED OVER SOUTHERN MISSOURI...WHICH WILL
FACILITATE NUMEROUS AFTERNOON STORMS.  THE PREDOMINATE STORM MODE
WILL BE PULSE STORMS...CAPABLE OF PRODUCING BRIEF DOWNPOURS ALONG
WITH A FEW CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING STRIKES.  LOOK FOR
DETERIORATING FLIGHT CONDITIONS IF ONE OF THESE STORMS IMPACTS
EITHER THE JOPLIN OR SPRINGFIELD AIRPORTS.

THE LATEST THINKING IS THAT AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER MAY BE
POSSIBLE FOR TONIGHT...AND WILL LIKELY CUT BACK ON THE PESSIMISTIC
PRECIP WORDING IN THE TAFS.

CRAMER

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR MOZ055>058-
066>071-077>081-088>091-093>095-101>104.

KS...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR KSZ073-097-101.

&&

WFO SGF

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
509 AM CDT FRI JUN 29 2007

KSZ073-097-101-MOZ055>058-066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106-301015-
BOURBON-CRAWFORD-CHEROKEE-BENTON-MORGAN-MILLER-MARIES-VERNON-
ST. CLAIR-HICKORY-CAMDEN-PULASKI-PHELPS-BARTON-CEDAR-POLK-DALLAS-
LACLEDE-TEXAS-DENT-JASPER-DADE-GREENE-WEBSTER-WRIGHT-NEWTON-
LAWRENCE-CHRISTIAN-DOUGLAS-HOWELL-SHANNON-MCDONALD-BARRY-STONE-
TANEY-OZARK-OREGON-
509 AM CDT FRI JUN 29 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF THE MISSOURI
OZARKS AND EXTREME SOUTHEAST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

 A VERY MOIST AIRMASS REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS SOUTHEAST KANSAS AND
 THE MISSOURI OZARKS. A PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE
 SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL INTERACT WITH THIS MOIST AIRMASS.
 ADDITIONALLY...A SLOW MOVING AND WEAK COLD FRONT REMAINS OVER
 SOUTHERN MISSOURI. ALL THESE FEATURES WILL COMBINE TO CREATE
 THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY RAIN OVER PARTS OF THE
 OUTLOOK AREA. IN GENERAL...THE HEAVIEST RAIN WILL OCCUR OVER
 SOUTHEAST KANSAS AND PARTS OF WEST CENTRAL AND CENTRAL MISSOURI
 THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...MAINLY NORTHWEST OF A CARTHAGE TO
 VIENNA LINE. HOWEVER..OTHER ISOLATED SLOW MOVING THUNDERSTORMS
 WILL ALSO OCCUR OVER THE REST OF THE MISSOURI OZARKS PRODUCING
 LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

 THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE WILL REMAIN
 NEAR THE OUTLOOK AREA INTO SATURDAY. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
 WILL THEREFORE CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY...AND POSSIBLY EVEN SUNDAY
 OVER EXTREME SOUTHEAST KANSAS AND SOUTHWEST MISSOURI. HEAVY
 RAINFALL AND FLASH FLOODING POTENTIAL CONTINUES TO EXIST INTO
 THIS UPCOMING WEEKEND. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL THEN
 DIMINISH EARLY NEXT WEEK AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE
 REGION.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

 SPOTTERS AND EMERGENCY MANAGERS ARE URGED TO REPORT ANY NOTABLE
 REPORTS OF MEASURED HEAVY RAINFALL AND ANY AREAS OF FLOODING.

&&

THIS PRODUCT IS NOW AVAILABLE IN GRAPHICAL FORMAT...ALONG WITH
OTHER WEATHER...HYDROLOGICAL AND CLIMATE INFORMATION...AT
HTTP://WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/SGF(ALL LOWERCASE)

CLAYCOMB

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1135 AM CDT FRI JUN 29 2007

MOZ083-291700-
DENT MO-
1135 AM CDT FRI JUN 29 2007

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT FOR DENT COUNTY UNTIL NOON CDT...

AT 1131 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 5 MILES NORTHWEST OF
SALEM TO SALEM TO 13 MILES SOUTH OF SALEM...OR ALONG A LINE EXTENDING
FROM SALEM TO 13 MILES SOUTH OF SALEM...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 20 MPH.

PEOPLE IN CENTRAL DENT COUNTY...INCLUDING THE CITY OF SALEM...SHOULD
MONITOR THE WEATHER SITUATION CLOSELY. LISTEN FOR POSSIBLE WARNINGS
AND BE PREPARED TO TAKE APPROPRIATE ACTION SHOULD SEVERE WEATHER
THREATEN.

WINDS AROUND 50 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THESE STORMS.

HATCH