Flash Flood Warning 112, NWS Springfield, MO

000 
WGUS73 KSGF 202253
FFSSGF

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
547 PM CDT WED JUN 20 2007

MOC217-210100-
/X.CON.KSGF.FF.W.0112.000000T0000Z-070621T0100Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
VERNON MO-
547 PM CDT WED JUN 20 2007

...A FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 800 PM CDT FOR
EASTERN VERNON COUNTY...

AT 542 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED 
THAT RAIN HAD COME TO AN END ACROSS VERNON COUNTY. HOWEVER...
RADAR ESTIMATES FROM THIS AFTERNOON INDICATE THAT TWO TO FOUR 
INCHES OF RAIN FELL IN A SHORT AMOUNT OF TIME ACROSS SOUTHERN 
VERNON COUNTY.

RUNOFF FROM THIS EXCESSIVE RAINFALL WILL CAUSE FLASH FLOODING TO
OCCUR. SOME LOCATIONS THAT MAY EXPERIENCE FLASH FLOODING INCLUDE...
MILO AND SHELDON.

RADAR INDICATES THAT THE HEAVIEST RAIN FELL FROM THE LANDON BRANCH 
TO THE CLEAR CREEK TRIBUTARIES.

FLOODING IS OCCURRING OR IS IMMINENT. MOST FLOOD RELATED DEATHS OCCUR
IN AUTOMOBILES. DO NOT ATTEMPT TO CROSS WATER COVERED BRIDGES...
DIPS...OR LOW WATER CROSSINGS. NEVER TRY TO CROSS A FLOWING STREAM...
EVEN A SMALL ONE...ON FOOT OR IN A VEHICLE.

LAT...LON 3765 9448 3765 9413 3802 9407 3802 9444

$$

SCHAUMANN

000 
WGUS73 KSGF 210052
FFSSGF

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
752 PM CDT WED JUN 20 2007

MOC217-210102-
/X.EXP.KSGF.FF.W.0112.000000T0000Z-070621T0100Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
VERNON MO-
752 PM CDT WED JUN 20 2007

...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING WILL EXPIRE AT 800 PM CDT FOR EASTERN
VERNON COUNTY...

EXCESS RUNOFF FROM HEAVY RAIN HAS ENDED OVER THE WARNED AREA. STREAMS
AND CREEKS IN THE WARNED AREA HAVE RECEDED OR WERE BEGINNING TO
RECEDE...ENDING THE FLOOD THREAT. IF FLOODING HAS BEEN OBSERVED...
PLEASE REPORT IT TO YOUR LOCAL LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCY.

LAT...LON 3765 9448 3765 9413 3802 9407 3802 9444

$$

SCHAUMANN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1210 PM CDT WED JUN 20 2007

...UPDATE TO AVIATION...

&&

.AVIATION...

FOR THE 18Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT BOTH THE
SPRINGFIELD AND JOPLIN TERMINALS THROUGH THE PERIOD. ISOLATED TO
WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTION ONGOING ON CURRENT RADAR...SO WENT AHEAD
AND ADDED VCTS TO BOTH TAFS FOR THIS AFTERNOON.

GCC

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 356 AM CDT WED JUN 20 2007/

DISCUSSION...

CURRENTLY...LARGE MCS IS SINKING SOUTHWARD INTO THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS STATES. RATHER EXPANSIVE CIRR0-STRATUS DECK HAS ENVELOPED
THE AREA RESULTING IN CLOUDY SKIES AREA WIDE. AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY
WAS EJECTED NORTHWARD OFF OF THE NORTHEASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE
CONVECTIVE COMPLEX AND HAS INTERACTED WITH A LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
GRADIENT TO SUSTAIN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
EXTREME SOUTHEAST KANSAS AND WESTERN MISSOURI. WITH LITTLE
MOVEMENT IN THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BOUNDARY...ANY CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY WILL BE CONFINED TO AREAS NEAR THE MO/KS STATE LINE FOR
THE NEXT FEW HOURS. TEMPERATURES SHOULD HOLD NEARLY STEADY...
RANGING FROM THE LOWER 60S IN THE EASTERN OZARKS TO THE LOWER 70S
ALONG THE MO/KS BORDER.

TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY...MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE WILL BE POPS FOR
EACH AFTERNOON/EVENING. FOR TODAY...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE GRADIENT
WILL SLOWLY EDGE TO THE EAST AS HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR EAST IS SLOW
TO DEPART. A NORTH TO SOUTH BOUNDARY WILL BISECT THE CWA AND IT
APPEARS THAT A FEW LINGERING BOUNDARIES FROM THIS MORNINGS
CONVECTION WILL BE AROUND TO HELP IGNITE AN ISOLATED TO LOW END
SCATTERED COVERAGE OF STORMS ALONG AND WEST OF THE HIGHWAY 65
CORRIDOR THIS AFTERNOON. TEMPS WILL ONCE AGAIN RISE WELL INTO THE
80S TODAY AND HAVE GONE PERSISTENCE PLUS A DEGREE OR TWO DUE TO
SLOWLY RISING 850MB AND 925MB TEMPS. CONVECTION SHOULD QUICKLY
SUBSIDE BY EARLY EVENING. ON THURSDAY...THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
BOUNDARY SHOULD EDGE FARTHER EASTWARD INTO THE EASTERN OZARKS.
LITTLE IN THE WAY OF FORCING TO SUPPORT CONVECTION IS NOTED...
HOWEVER TEMPS NEARING 90 ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA WILL REACH IF NOT
EXCEED OUR EXPECTED CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES. THUS HAVE MENTIONED
ISOLATED AFTERNOON STORMS FOR THE EASTERN TWO THIRDS OF THE CWA.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...ALL EYES WILL BE FOCUSED ON
THE UPPER MIDWEST AS A DISTURBANCE IS EXPECTED TO CREST THE UPPER
RIDGE AND SLIDE INTO THE NATIONS MID SECTION. SHORT RANGE MODELS
CONTINUE TO SUGGEST SOME SEMBLANCE OF SFC CYCLOGENESIS FRIDAY
AFTERNOON NEAR THE QUAD CITIES...AND CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO
MOVE INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTH. RECENT RUNS OF THE SREF
SUPPORT THIS EVOLUTION AND HAVE MAINTAINED POPS FOR THE
NORTHEASTERN HALF OF THE CWA FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY
NIGHT. MESOSCALE FEATURES WILL LIKELY DICTATE THE EVOLUTION OF THE
EXPECTED MCS AND HAVE REMAINED CONSERVATIVE ON POPS AT THIS POINT.
LATER FORECASTS WILL NEED TO REFINE AND INCREASE POPS IF MODEL AND
SREF TRENDS CONTINUE. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE ABOVE
AVERAGE AND MUGGY WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS FROM THE MIDDLE 60S TO LOWER
70S AND HIGHS IN THE LOWER 90S.

SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...LATEST 00Z ECMWF A LITTLE OUT OF LINE
WITH THE REMAINDER OF THE 00Z SUITE OF MODEL OUTPUT THIS WEEKEND
LINGERING A CUTOFF LOW JUST EAST OF THE AREA. GIVEN THE EXPECTED
STRENGTH OF THE WESTERN RIDGE...THIS SOLUTION IS LITTLE HARD TO
BITE OFF ON AND HAVE FOLLOWED THE 00Z GFS AND ENSEMBLES FOR THE
WEEKEND. THEREAFTER...DECENT AGREEMENT IS NOTED AMONGST THE MED
RANGE SUITE OF MODELS WITH UPPER RIDGING TAKEN FIRM CONTROL OF OUR
WEATHER REGIME. AS A RESULT EXPECT WELL ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPS FROM
SUNDAY ONWARD WITH READINGS IN THE LOW/MID 90S COMMON. AT THIS
POINT...THE BEST CHANCE OF RAIN FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD APPEARS TO
BE TIED TO THE ANY LINGERING AFFECTS FROM FRIDAY NIGHTS POTENTIAL
MCS. WITH HEIGHTS AND TEMPS RISING ALOFT FROM SUNDAY ONWARD...
IT APPEARS THAT IF ANY ACTIVITY CAN DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON
AND EARLY EVENING IT WILL BE VERY MUCH HIT OR MISS.

GAGAN

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

WFO SGF

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1221 PM CDT WED JUN 20 2007

KSZ073-097-101-MOZ055>058-066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106-211100-
BOURBON-CRAWFORD-CHEROKEE-BENTON-MORGAN-MILLER-MARIES-VERNON-
ST. CLAIR-HICKORY-CAMDEN-PULASKI-PHELPS-BARTON-CEDAR-POLK-DALLAS-
LACLEDE-TEXAS-DENT-JASPER-DADE-GREENE-WEBSTER-WRIGHT-NEWTON-
LAWRENCE-CHRISTIAN-DOUGLAS-HOWELL-SHANNON-MCDONALD-BARRY-STONE-
TANEY-OZARK-OREGON-
1221 PM CDT WED JUN 20 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF THE MISSOURI
OZARKS AND EXTREME SOUTHEAST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

 SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE ENTIRE
 OUTLOOK AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE
 LIKELY...WITH WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH...HAIL TO THE SIZE OF ONE HALF
 INCH AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CANNOT
 BE RULED OUT...WITH A FEW WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH BEING THE
 PRIMARY HAZARD. THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH AROUND
 SUNSET.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

 ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL ONCE AGAIN BE POSSIBLE ACROSS
 PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST MISSOURI THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
 THE PRIMARY HAZARD EXPECTED IS WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH.

 THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
 OUTLOOK AREA FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND FRIDAY NIGHT AS AN ORGANIZED
 AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS MOVES SOUTHWARD OUT OF THE UPPER MIDWEST.
 THE EXPECTED MOVEMENT OF THIS THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX IS UNCERTAIN
 AT THIS TIME AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CANNOT BE RULED OUT.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

  SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED THROUGH TONIGHT.

&&

THIS PRODUCT IS NOW AVAILABLE IN GRAPHICAL FORMAT...ALONG WITH
OTHER WEATHER...HYDROLOGICAL AND CLIMATE INFORMATION...AT
HTTP://WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/SGF(ALL LOWERCASE)

GAGAN / CRAMER