Flash Flood Warning 109, NWS Springfield, MO

000 
WGUS73 KSGF 190427
FFSSGF

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1123 PM CDT MON JUN 18 2007

MOC217-190700-
/X.CON.KSGF.FF.W.0109.000000T0000Z-070619T0700Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
VERNON MO-
1123 PM CDT MON JUN 18 2007

...A FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 200 AM CDT FOR 
NORTHERN AND EASTERN VERNON COUNTY...

LOCAL LAW ENFORCEMENT OFFICIALS REPORTED THAT EXCESSIVE RAINFALL 
THAT OCCURRED MONDAY EVENING WAS PRODUCING FLASH FLOODING ON SEVERAL 
COUNTY ROADS ACROSS THE WARNED AREA. RADAR ESTIMATED THAT TWO TO 
THREE AND A HALF INCHES OF RAIN HAD FALLEN SINCE EARLY MONDAY 
EVENING ACROSS NORTHEAST VERNON COUNTY.

RUNOFF FROM THIS EXCESSIVE RAINFALL IS CAUSING FLASH FLOODING. MANY 
COUNTY ROADS AND LOW WATER CROSSINGS WILL BE AFFECTED...ESPECIALLY 
IN THE WALKER AND HARWOOD AREAS. 

ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT WHICH COULD 
WORSEN FLOODING CONDITIONS.

BE ESPECIALLY CAUTIOUS AT NIGHT WHEN IT IS HARDER TO RECOGNIZE THE
DANGERS OF FLOODING. IF FLASH FLOODING IS OBSERVED ACT QUICKLY. DO
NOT ENTER THE WATER. TURN AROUND AND MOVE UP TO HIGHER GROUND TO
ESCAPE FLOOD WATERS. DO NOT STAY IN AREAS SUBJECT TO FLOODING WHEN
WATER BEGINS RISING.

LAT...LON 3805 9408 3784 9408 3786 9436 3805 9459

$$

FOSTER

000 
WGUS73 KSGF 190653
FFSSGF

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
153 AM CDT TUE JUN 19 2007

MOC217-190703-
/X.EXP.KSGF.FF.W.0109.000000T0000Z-070619T0700Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
VERNON MO-
153 AM CDT TUE JUN 19 2007

...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING WILL EXPIRE AT 200 AM CDT FOR NORTHEASTERN
VERNON COUNTY...

RAINFALL HAS ENDED ACROSS VERNON COUNTY...HOWEVER EXCESS RUNOFF FROM 
HEAVY RAIN EARLIER MONDAY EVENING CONTINUES. AS A RESULT...AN AREAL 
FLOOD WARNING FOR CONTINUED RUNOFF OF RAIN WATER WILL BE ISSUED. 
STREAMS AND CREEKS IN THE WARNED AREA WILL BEGIN TO RECEDE...ENDING 
THE FLASH FLOOD THREAT. IF FLOODING HAS BEEN OBSERVED...PLEASE REPORT 
IT TO YOUR LOCAL LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCY.

LAT...LON 3805 9408 3784 9408 3786 9436 3805 9459

$$

GAGAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
645 PM CDT MON JUN 18 2007

.UPDATE...
MID LEVEL SHEAR AXIS WAS MAKING ITS ACROSS THE OZARKS AT LATE
AFTERNOON WHILE A FRONT WAS SAGGING SOUTH ACROSS NORTHERN KANSAS AND
MISSOURI. CONVECTION WAS FOCUSED EAST OF THE SHEAR AXIS AND NEAR THE
FRONT. THE ACTIVITY ACROSS NORTHERN AND CENTRAL MISSOURI CLOSER TO
THE FRONT WAS ALSO SUPPORTED BY A SHORTWAVE SWINGING INTO IOWA
ANOTHER POSSIBLE VORTICITY MAXIMUM MOVING OUT OF NORTHEAST KANSAS.
SOME UNCERTAINTY REMAINS TO HOW CONVECTION WILL EVOLVE THIS EVENING
BUT IT APPEARS THE ACTIVITY WILL BE FOCUSED ACROSS CENTRAL MISSOURI
AS THE VORTICITY MAXIMUM TRACKS EAST. STILL SOME CHANCE THAT
ISOLATED SEVERE MAY DEVELOP ACROSS CENTRAL MISSOURI AS DEEP LAYERED
SHEAR GRADUALLY INCREASES. ALSO OF CONCERN IS LOCALIZED FLOODING
ACROSS CENTRAL MISSOURI WHERE TRAINING OF THE STORMS IS POSSIBLE.
HOWEVER LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING AND RESULTING
STABILIZATION...NEGATIVE VORTICITY ADVECTION IN THE WAKE OF THE
DEPARTING SHEAR AXIS...AND MID LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL BE
INHIBITING FACTORS TO MORE ROBUST CONVECTION. WILL ADJUST RAIN
CHANCES TO HIGHLIGHT CENTRAL MISSOURI AND DECEASE THEM A BIT
ELSEWHERE.

FOSTER

&&

.DISCUSSION...

NUMEROUS SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS PERSISTED ACROSS MUCH
OF EXTREME SOUTHEAST KANSAS AND THE MISSOURI OZARKS TODAY.  THESE
ACTIVE CONDITIONS WERE IN RESPONSE TO THE PASSAGE OF A WEAK UPPER
LEVEL SHEAR AXIS COMBINED WITH AN AIRMASS LOADED IN MOISTURE
CONTENT.  A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE REGION
TONIGHT...AND THE INITIAL FORECAST CHALLENGE IN THIS AFTERNOONS
ANALYSIS WAS DETERMINING PRECIP CHANCES ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FRONT
DURING THE 1ST PERIOD (TONIGHT).

THE NEXT CHALLENGE WAS DETERMINING SEVERE POTENTIAL FOR THIS
EVENING.  A DECENT SIGNAL EXISTS WITHIN THE 12Z GFS SOLUTION THAT
WOULD SUGGEST A POSSIBILITY OF ORGANIZED CONVECTION OVER EASTERN
KANSAS AND WESTERN MISSOURI.  THE WRF ON THE OTHER HAND WOULD KEEP
STORMS IN CHECK.

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT - WEDNESDAY NIGHT)...
BETWEEN THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND THE FRONTAL SYSTEM PUSHING
THROUGH TONIGHT ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL
MISSOURI...CATEGORICAL POPS WILL BE NEEDED ALONG AND EAST OF HIGHWAY
65.  AS A MATTER OF FACT...ILL BE GOING 100 POPS OVER A GOOD
PORTION OF THE EASTERN OZARKS WITHIN THE FIRST PERIOD.  THE MORE
DIFFICULT PRECIP FORECAST EXISTS OUT WEST WHERE MODELS DIFFER WITH
HOW THE FRONT IS HANDLED IN THIS AREA.

THE GFS SHOWS STRONG LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT AND
PUSHES IT THROUGH SOUTHEAST KANSAS BY AROUND 6Z...WHICH WOULD
SUGGEST HIGH CHANCES FOR ADDITIONAL RAINFALL IN THESE AREAS.
MEANWHILE THE WRF SHOWS THE WESTERN FLANK OF THE FRONT HANGING UP
ACROSS NORTHERN KANSAS...WHICH GRADUALLY SHIFTS THE FRONT THROUGH
DURING THE MORNING HOURS TUESDAY.  THIS WOULD YIELD LITTLE
CONVERGENCE AND LOW END CHANCES FOR ADDITIONAL RAIN.  HERES WHATS
HAPPENING WITH THE WRF AND WHY ITS LOW LEVEL PROGS ARE OFF.

12Z WRF 500MB HEIGHT MODEL INITIALIZATIONS SHOW A STRONG WAKE HIGH
ACROSS OKLAHOMA AND EVEN INTO KANSAS BEHIND THIS MORNINGS OKLAHOMA
CONVECTIVE CLUSTER.  THE MODEL IS WAY OVERDONE WITH THIS WAKE HIGH
AND FORCING THE FRONT TO BECOME HUNG UP ACROSS NORTHERN KANSAS.
THIS SOLUTION SHOULD BE DISREGARDED FOR TONIGHTS PRECIP CHANCES
ACROSS EXTREME SOUTHEAST KANSAS AND SOUTHWEST
MISSOURI...PARTICULARLY THE JOPLIN AREA.  TV METS SHOULD LEAN
TONIGHTS FORECAST WITH THE WETTER GFS...WITH CONDITIONS DRYING OUT
DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.

FOR TUESDAY...DESPITE THE MODELS PROVIDING SOUTHERN MISSOURI WITH
NEAR ZERO CHANCES FOR RAIN...I THINK LINGERING SHOWERS WILL EXIST IN
RESPONSE TO THE FRONT NOT PUSHING ALL THE WAY INTO NORTHERN
ARKANSAS...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE WEST PLAINS AREA.  WILL TAKE A SECOND
LOOK AT THIS PRIOR TO ISSUANCE TIME...BUT I MAY BE KEEPING A 20 - 30
PERCENT POP ALONG HIGHWAY 60 AND SOUTH FOR TUESDAY MORNING.
OTHERWISE DRY AIR ADVECTS IN BY THE AFTERNOON PERIOD.  THIS SHOULD
SUPPRESS ANY SHOWERS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY...AND SHOULD BE A
GOOD DAY TO GET AFTERNOON JOBS ACCOMPLISHED.  BY TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY...A CONVECTIVE COMPLEX WILL LIKELY OCCUR OVER THE
PLAINS.  WILL NEED TO MONITOR THIS SYSTEM AS IT MAY IMPACT SE KANSAS
AND WESTERN MISSOURI WEDNESDAY MORNING.  FOR THE REST OF
WEDNESDAY...MUCH WILL DEPEND ON THIS SYSTEM AND IF IT CAN LAY OUT
BOUNDARIES THAT ACT AS FOCI DURING THE AFTERNOON.  THESE SMALL
DETAILS WILL BECOME EASIER FORECASTED WITH TIME.

LONG TERM (THURSDAY - SUNDAY)...
HEADING INTO WEEKS END...MEDIUM RANGE MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE
SUMMERTIME RIDGE WILL HAVE STRENGTHENED ACROSS THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST...WHILE MEAN TROUGHING EXISTS TO THE EAST.  THIS WILL
PROVIDE A NORTHWEST FLOW REGIME OVER THE NATIONS MID
SECTION...POTENTIALLY ALLOWING FOR A SERIES OF SHORTWAVE
DISTURBANCES TO IMPACT EXTREME SOUTHEAST KANSAS AND THE MISSOURI
OZARKS.

TIMING THESE DISTURBANCES ROUNDING THE PERIPHERY OF THE SUMMERTIME
RIDGE IS ALWAYS A CHALLENGE 4-7 DAYS OUT.  THIS SCENARIO WILL NEED
TO BE FINED TUNED AS WE BECOME CLOSER TO WEEKS END...BUT ULTIMATELY
I CAN NOT RULE OUT THUNDERSTORMS IN ANY PERIOD DURING THIS TIME
FRAME.  WHAT WE DO KNOW IS THAT TEMPERATURES ARE GOING TO TREND
WARMER.  AS A MATTER OF FACT...90 DEGREE TEMPERATURES ARE A GOOD BET
BY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.  LOCATIONS THAT EXPERIENCE MORE AFTERNOON
CLOUD COVER AND PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY REMAIN IN THE 80S.

TEMPERATURES COULD INCREASE INTO THE MID 90S SUNDAY AND EARLY NEXT
WEEK.  BOTH THE GFS AND THE ECMWF SHOW THE SUMMERTIME RIDGE FOLDING
OVER INTO THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN PLAINS.  THIS SCENARIO WOULD ALSO
OFFER MORE OF A DRY FORECAST...BUT WERE ALSO TALKING ABOUT DAYS 7
AND 8.  ITS CERTAINLY POSSIBLE MODELS COULD TREND IN EITHER
DIRECTION...WITH STRENGTHENING THE RIDGE EVEN FURTHER...OR CONFINING
IT TO THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES AND HIGH PLAINS.

CRAMER

&&

.AVIATION...
EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER AND SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE
AREA THOUGH TONIGHT. AREAS OF MVFR CEILINGS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP
OVERNIGHT ALONG WITH LIGHT FOG. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE AHEAD
OF AN APPROACHING FRONT THEN SHIFT TO THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST EARLY
TUESDAY AS THE FRONT PASSES TO THE SOUTH. CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY
DECREASE TUESDAY MORNING LEADING TO VFR CONDITIONS.

FOSTER

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

WFO SGF

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
800 PM CDT MON JUN 18 2007

KSZ073-097-101-MOZ055>058-066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106-191815-
BOURBON-CRAWFORD-CHEROKEE-BENTON-MORGAN-MILLER-MARIES-VERNON-
ST. CLAIR-HICKORY-CAMDEN-PULASKI-PHELPS-BARTON-CEDAR-POLK-DALLAS-
LACLEDE-TEXAS-DENT-JASPER-DADE-GREENE-WEBSTER-WRIGHT-NEWTON-
LAWRENCE-CHRISTIAN-DOUGLAS-HOWELL-SHANNON-MCDONALD-BARRY-STONE-
TANEY-OZARK-OREGON-
800 PM CDT MON JUN 18 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF THE MISSOURI
OZARKS AND EXTREME SOUTHEAST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

  WEATHER HAZARDS EXPECTED:

  SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS
  OF 60  MPH...LARGE HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF QUARTERS...AND HEAVY
  RAIN LEADING TO LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING.

  AREAS AFFECTED AND TIMING:

  SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT ACROSS THE OUTLOOK
  AREA...BUT BE MOST CONCENTRATED NORTH OF A LINE FROM PITTSBURG
  KANSAS TO WEST PLAINS.

  DISCUSSION:

  AN UNSTABLE AND VERY MOIST AIRMASS WILL INTERACT WITH AN
  APPROACHING COLD FRONT TO PRODUCE SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT.
  A FEW OF THESE STORMS MAY BECOME SEVERE...AS WIND SHEAR
  INCREASES.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

 THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE DURING THE DAY TUESDAY AS A
 COLD FRONT EXITS THE REGION. ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS ARE
 POSSIBLE OVER WESTERN MISSOURI AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS OVERNIGHT
 TUESDAY...AS A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE DROPS THROUGH THE
 AREA. ADDITIONAL SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS CAN NOT BE RULED OUT
 THROUGH THE WORK WEEK AND INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

  SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED THROUGH TONIGHT.

&&

THIS PRODUCT IS NOW AVAILABLE IN GRAPHICAL FORMAT...ALONG WITH
OTHER WEATHER...HYDROLOGICAL AND CLIMATE INFORMATION...AT
HTTP://WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/SGF(ALL LOWERCASE)

CRAMER/FOSTER

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
324 PM CDT MON JUN 18 2007

MOZ103-182100-
STONE MO-
324 PM CDT MON JUN 18 2007

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT FOR STONE COUNTY UNTIL 400 PM CDT...

AT 322 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR CRANE...OR 12 MILES SOUTHEAST OF AURORA...
MOVING NORTHEAST AT 30 MPH.

WINDS AROUND 50 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

SCHAUMANN

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
436 PM CDT MON JUN 18 2007

MOZ080-182215-
DALLAS MO-
436 PM CDT MON JUN 18 2007

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT FOR DALLAS COUNTY UNTIL 515 PM CDT...

AT 434 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 6 MILES NORTH OF FAIR GROVE...OR 13 MILES SOUTH
OF BUFFALO...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 25 MPH.

THIS STORM WILL REMAIN OVER MAINLY RURAL AREAS OF SOUTHERN DALLAS
COUNTY...INCLUDING THE TOWNS OF MARCH...FOOSE AND CHARITY.

WINDS AROUND 50 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

SCHAUMANN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
734 PM CDT MON JUN 18 2007

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0700 PM     FUNNEL CLOUD     1 N OZARK               37.04N 93.21W
06/18/2007                   CHRISTIAN          MO   FIRE DEPT/RESCUE

            SEVERAL REPORTS OF A FUNNEL CLOUD ON NORTH SIDE OF OZARK.

&&

JSS