Wind Advisory 6, NWS Seattle, WA

000 
WWUS76 KSEW 110430
NPWSEW

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
830 PM PST SAT MAR 10 2007


WAZ001-503-506-510-110530-
/O.CAN.KSEW.WI.Y.0006.000000T0000Z-070311T1100Z/
SAN JUAN COUNTY-WESTERN WHATCOM COUNTY-WESTERN SKAGIT COUNTY-
ADMIRALTY INLET AREA-
830 PM PST SAT MAR 10 2007

...WIND ADVISORY IS CANCELLED...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SEATTLE HAS CANCELLED THE WIND
ADVISORY. SOUTH WINDS OF 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 35 MPH WILL
CONTINUE THE REST OF TONIGHT BUT WILL REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY
CRITERIA.

$$
MERCER

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
830 AM SAT MAR 10 2007

.SYNOPSIS...A STRONG AND WET PACIFIC STORM SYSTEM WILL AFFECT THE
AREA THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING
STRONG SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WITH A HIGH SNOW LEVEL. A WEAKER SYSTEM
WILL BRUSH ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY FOLLOWED BY RIDGING THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...SPRINKLES AROUND WESTERN WASHINGTON THIS MORNING UNDER
CLOUDY SKIES. MAIN EVENT PCPN SCHEDULED TO REACH THE COAST AROUND
21Z AND SPREAD INLAND BY 01Z OR SO. THIS SYSTEM...WITH WELL
ADVERTISED SUBTROPICAL TAP...SHOULD BE A SOAKER ESP IN MOUNTAINS.
LOOKS TO BE ABOUT 30 HOURS OF HEAVY RAIN IN THE OLYMPICS AND NORTH
CASCADES ADDING UP TO AROUND 5-8 INCHES. FLOOD WATCH FOR MOST OF
WESTERN WASHINGTON IN EFFECT WITH SOUTHERNMOST COUNTY IN CWA...LEWIS
...LEFT OUT. THIS COULD BE TOO FINE A DISTINCTION BUT WILL CONTINUE
WITH THIS IDEA FOR TODAY. FREEZING LEVEL FORECAST TO RISE TO 8-9K FT
THIS AFTERNOON. TEMPS WILL REACH THE MID 50S TODAY AND POSSIBLY EVEN
60 TOMORROW IN THE RAIN.

RAIN CHANGES TO SHOWERS SUNDAY NIGHT AND A RIDGE BUILDS FOR A DRY
PERIOD MONDAY. ANOTHER SYSTEM ARRIVES FROM THE NW TUE. BURKE

.LONG TERM...PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...NOTHING ESPECIALLY INTERESTING IN
THE EXTENDED. KEEPING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST AND THE
PATTERN IS ZONAL AND HEIGHTS LOOK SEASONABLE. THE GFS DOES NOT SHOW
ANY SIGNIFICANT FRONTAL SYSTEMS OR LOW CENTERS EMBEDDED IN THE FLOW
AND A 1025MB SURFACE HIGH IS OVER THE AREA WITH MOST SHOWER ACTIVITY
STAYING ON THE B.C. COAST. MM

&&

.AVIATION...A WEAK WARM FRONT IS LIFTING N THROUGH THE AREA THIS
MORNING. THIS HAS BROUGHT SOME PATCHES OF CIGS BKN010 AND VIS 3-5SM
-DZ BR. EXPECT MUCH OF THIS LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE TO CLEAR OUT AS THE
WEAK WARM FRONT LIFTS N OF THE AREA AND LOW LEVEL SELY FLOW
INCREASES. BY 20Z EXPECT BKN040 OVC120 TO DOMINATE. THE MID LEVEL
CLOUD DECK WILL GRADUALLY LOWER DOWN TO OVC050 AT 00Z AS -RA BEGINS.
BY ABOUT 03Z AND CONTINUING THRU MUCH OF SUN EXPECT 5SM -RA OVC020
TO DOMINATE WITH CLEARING TO THE LEE OF THE OLYMPICS N OF SEATTLE
AND LOWER CIGS AND VIS TO THE S/SW OF KSEA WITH HEAVIER PCPN. LLWS
WILL INCREASINGLY BECOME A FACTOR AFTER 00Z THIS AFTN AS WIND AT 020
INCREASES TO 19045KT AND WIND AT 4000 FT INCREASES TO 20055KT.

AT KSEA WIND 13006KT EARLY GRADUALLY BECOMING 18012G20KT BY 03Z AND
REMAINING THERE THRU SUN. WIND 19020G30KT POSSIBLE IF THE LEE SIDE
LOW BECOMES ESTABLISHED A LITTLE FARTHER S BUT THIS APPEARS LESS
LIKELY THAN THE LOWER WIND SPEEDS WITH INCREASED LLWS. WIND 20055KT
AT 4000 FT 03Z THIS EVENING ONWARD.  ALBRECHT

&&

.MARINE...WINDS WILL GRADUALLY RAMP UP THIS AFTERNOON AS A 992 MB
LOW MOVES ENE INTO NORTHERN VANCOUVER ISLAND AND DRAGS A STRONG
FRONT TO A POSITION JUST N OF THE WATERS. ANOTHER WAVE OF LOW PRES
WILL MOVE INTO VANCOUVER ISLAND MIDDAY SUN. WINDS ALOFT WILL BE
STRONG TO THE SOUTH OF THIS FRONT AND WILL INTERACT WITH THE
OLYMPICS. THIS WILL ALLOW GALE FORCE WINDS TO DOMINATE ON THE COAST
AND STRONG SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS IN OTHER WATERS. THERE IS A
POSSIBILITY THAT THE STRONGER WINDS ALOFT COULD SURFACE TO THE LEE
OF THE OLYMPICS RESULTING IN GALE FORCE WINDS AT TIMES LATE TONIGHT
AND SUN OVER PUGET SOUND AND HOOD CANAL AND ADMIRALTY INLET. WILL
ADDRESS THIS WITH THE AFTERNOON PACKAGE AFTER TAKING ANOTHER LOOK AT
INCOMING NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE. THE FRONT WILL MOVE SE THROUGH
THE WATERS SUN EVENING WITH WINDS BECOMING MORE W/SW AND EASING
BEHIND THE FRONT. ALBRECHT

&&

.AVALANCHE...ANOTHER WEEK, ANOTHER WARNING. INCREASING RAIN AND
SUBSTANTIAL WARMING ON TRACK FOR MID-LATE SATURDAY THROUGH MUCH OF
SUNDAY BEFORE COOLING AND MORE SHOWERY WEATHER ARRIVES LATE SUNDAY
NORTH AND EARLY MONDAY SOUTH. WITH AMOUNTS LIKELY RANGING FROM 2 TO
4 INCHES OR MORE, THIS SHOULD BE MORE THAN ENOUGH TO PRODUCE
SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN THE AVALANCHE DANGER, LOADING AND WEAKENING
BOTH MARCH AND LATE FEBRUARY SNOWFALLS. WILL ISSUE APPROPRIATE
WATCHES AND WARNINGS SHORTLY FOR MOST AVALANCHE PRONE TERRAIN. HOPE
THE ANTICIPATED ABYSMAL WEATHER WILL KEEP MOST TRAVELERS AT HOME.
SEE WWW.NWAC.US FOR DETAILS.  MOORE

&&

.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
 .FLOOD WATCH ALL OF WESTERN WASHINGTON EXCEPT LEWIS...SAN JUAN...
ISLAND...AND KITSAP COUNTIES.
 .GALE WARNING COAST.
 .SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY ALL INLAND WATERS.
 .SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY GRAYS HARBOR FOR ROUGH BAR CONDITIONS.

WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE