Wind Advisory 10, NWS Seattle, WA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
930 AM PDT SUN OCT 7 2007

.SYNOPSIS...A COLD FRONT WILL BRING PERIODS OF RAIN AND WINDY
CONDITIONS TO WESTERN WASHINGTON TODAY AS IT CROSSES THE AREA. WEAK
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PRODUCE A BRIEF DRY PERIOD MONDAY...BUT ANOTHER
FRONT WILL BRING MORE RAIN TUESDAY. SHOWERS WILL FOLLOW THE FRONT ON
WEDNESDAY. YET ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL REACH THE AREA LATE THIS
WEEK...AND THE ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM...A PACIFIC FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO MAKE ITS WAY
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. THE SYSTEMS WARM FRONT MOVED INTO WRN WA
SAT EVENING AND LIFTED NORTHEAST OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT. THE COLD
FRONT MOVED PAST BUOY 5 -- LOCATED AT 46N/131W -- AT 4 AM...AND AT 9
AM IT EXTENDED FROM NORTHERN VANCOUVER ISLAND SOUTH-SOUTHWEST ACROSS
THE OFFSHORE WATERS.

THE COLD FRONT IS ON TRACK TO MAKE LANDFALL ON THE COAST AROUND 18Z
AND SWING THROUGH SEATTLE ROUGHLY 22Z. THE HEAVIEST RAIN WITH THE
WARM FRONT WAS ALONG THE NORTH COAST AND SOUTH SLOPES OF THE
OLYMPICS -- NO SURPRISE THERE -- WITH OVER AN INCH AT QUILLAYUTE AND
MORE THAN AN INCH AND A HALF OVER THE OLYMPICS. ANOTHER ONE TO TWO
INCHES WILL FALL TODAY AND TONIGHT OVER THE OLYMPICS AND ALONG THE
WEST SLOPES OF THE NORTH CASCADES -- A GOOD DOSE OF RAIN BUT NOT
ENOUGH TO RAISE RIVER FLOODING CONCERNS.

THE STRONGEST WIND REPORTS HAVE BEEN FROM WHIDBEY ISLAND...WHICH
REPORTED SUSTAINED WIND OF 33 MPH AND PEAK GUSTS INTO THE 40S AT 7
AM. WINDY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MID AFTERNOON WHEN THE
FRONT MOVES THROUGH.

PCPN WILL TAPER OFF RATHER QUICKLY BEHIND THE FRONT TONIGHT. THERE
WILL BE ONLY A BRIEF SPELL OF POST-FRONTAL WESTERLIES...AND THE AIR
MASS WONT BE ESPECIALLY COLD OR UNSTABLE. IT STILL LOOKS LIKE MON
WILL BE A DRY DAY WITH THE FLOW TURNING OFFSHORE AHEAD OF THE NEXT
BIG EVENT.

THAT NEXT BIG EVENT IS A WAVE THAT WILL UNDERGO RAPID CYCLOGENESIS
ON MON AS IT MOVES THROUGH THE BASE OF THE TROUGH ALONG 140W. THIS
FEATURES SURFACE LOW WILL DEEPEN FROM AROUND 1000 MB AT 12Z MON TO
AROUND 965 MB ON 12Z TUE AS IT CURLS NORTHEAST ALONG 130W. THE LOW
WILL WEAKEN AS IT MAKES ITS WAY NORTHWARD TUE AND TUE NIGHT...
PROBABLY MOVING INTO BRITISH COLUMBIA BETWEEN VANCOUVER ISLAND AND
THE QUEEN CHARLOTTES. IT WILL BE A DRAMATIC STORM...BUT THE IRONY IS
THAT FOR MOST OF WRN WA IT WILL GO RELATIVELY UNNOTICED. THE SYSTEMS
FRONT WILL BRING RAIN TO THE AREA TUE AND TUE NIGHT...BUT THE
SIGNIFICANT WINDS WILL BE LIMITED TO THE COAST AND COASTAL WATERS.
MCDONNAL

.LONG TERM...HERE IS THE LONG TERM DISCUSSION FROM THE EARLY MORNING
ISSUANCE OF THE AFD -- THE POST FRONTAL UPPER TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH
THE DEPARTING LOW WILL GIVE SHOWERY CONDITIONS TO THE AREA WED. THE
LATEST GFS SOLUTIONS BRINGS A SPLITTING FRONT THROUGH THE AREA FRI
WHILE THE 00Z ECMWF SHOWS NO REAL SPLITTING AND A RATHER WET PERIOD
LATER THU INTO FRI. A SERIES OF SYSTEMS IN AN ACTIVE AND STRONG
PACIFIC JET CONTINUE THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD AND AS FAR AS THE
EYE CAN SEE. AT THIS POINT WILL NOT CHANGE FORECASTS BEYOND THE TUE
PERIOD.  ALBRECHT

&&

.AVIATION...FROPA SHOULD BE AT KHQM AROUND 19Z AND PUGET SOUND
AROUND 22Z. MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE TAFS FOR TIMING THE
FRONT...SHOWING SOME LOWER CONDITIONS WITH THE PRECIP IN THE FRONT
AND SCATTERED SHOWERS AND IMPROVING CONDITIONS BEHIND THE FRONT.
THERE MAY BE EXTRA SHOWERS THIS EVENING IN A PSCZ BUT PRETTY QUICK
DRYING OVERNIGHT TONIGHT OTHERWISE. WITH A SWITCH FROM ONSHORE FLOW
TO RATHER LIGHT WINDS AT DAYBREAK MONDAY UNDER 1018MB WEAK HIGH
PRES...AREAS OF LOW STRATUS AND VALLEY FOG MAY HAVE A CHANCE TO
DEVELOP OVERNIGHT.

KSEA WIND SOUTHERLY AND INCREASINGLY BREEZY TODAY...I WILL PROBABLY
SHOW IN THE 18Z TAF 18012G22KT AND FROPA AT 22Z WITH A SWITCH TO THE
SW. WIND WILL GO VRB06KT ARND 04Z THIS EVENING WITH THE PSCZ
ACTIVITY. MM

.MARINE...FCSTS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD SHAPE WITH A VIGOROUS FRONT
MAKING LANDFALL. SLY GALES BLOWING AT DESTRUCTION AND TATOOSH. NOT
QUITE AS STRONG OVER THE INLAND WATERS...BUT PEAK WINDS ON LAND HAVE
BEEN AROUND 34KTS FROM KNUW TO KBLI THIS MORNING SO FCST IS IN THE
BALLPARK. KEYSTONE FERRY OBSERVATION SUGGESTS SE GALES ADMIRALTY.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY PUGET SOUND LOOKS FINE...20-30KTS ON THE
KINGSTON RUN...LOWER ACROSS THE SOUTH SOUND. MM

&&

.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...GALE WARNING ALL WATERS EXCEPT
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR THE CENTRAL STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA AND
PUGET SOUND AND HOOD CANAL.