Severe Thunderstorm Warning 78, NWS Blacksburg, VA

000 
WWUS51 KRNK 082010
SVSRNK

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
408 PM EDT FRI JUN 8 2007

VAC141-082100-
/O.CON.KRNK.SV.W.0078.000000T0000Z-070608T2100Z/
PATRICK VA-
408 PM EDT FRI JUN 8 2007

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 500 PM EDT
FOR SOUTHERN PATRICK COUNTY...

AT 406 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO
INDICATE A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE
HAIL...AND DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH.  THIS STORM WAS
LOCATED NEAR STUART...MOVING EAST AT 20 MPH.

A SECOND THUNDERSTORM IN THE SOUTHWESTERN PARTS OF PATRICK COUNTY... 
JUST EAST OF GROUNDHOG MOUNTAIN...STILL HAS THE POTENTIAL FOR 
PRODUCING PENNY SIZE HAIL...AND WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH.

OTHER LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO CRITZ.

IF SEVERE WEATHER APPROACHES YOUR AREA...GO INSIDE A STURDY SHELTER.

REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAN PRODUCE LARGE DAMAGING HAIL...
DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 55 MPH...DEADLY LIGHTNING...AND VERY
HEAVY RAIN.

LAT...LON 3668 8046 3665 8060 3655 8052 3655 8010
      3666 8009

$$

DS

000 
WWUS51 KRNK 082044
SVSRNK

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
444 PM EDT FRI JUN 8 2007

VAC141-082100-
/O.CON.KRNK.SV.W.0078.000000T0000Z-070608T2100Z/
PATRICK VA-
444 PM EDT FRI JUN 8 2007

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 500 PM EDT
FOR SOUTHERN PATRICK COUNTY...

AT 440 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO
INDICATE A LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING PENNY
SIZE HAIL.  THESE STORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 7
MILES EAST OF ARARAT TO PENNS STORE...OR ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM
6 MILES NORTH OF FRANCISCO TO SPENCER...MOVING EAST AT 15 MPH.

THE LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL OTHERWISE REMAIN OVER MAINLY
RURAL AREAS OF THE INDICATED COUNTY..

TO REPORT SEVERE WEATHER...PLEASE CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE IN BLACKSBURG AT...1...8 6 6...2 1 5...4 3 2 4.

IF SEVERE WEATHER APPROACHES YOUR AREA...GO INSIDE A STURDY SHELTER.

REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAN PRODUCE LARGE DAMAGING HAIL...
DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 55 MPH...DEADLY LIGHTNING...AND VERY
HEAVY RAIN.

LAT...LON 3663 8048 3659 8056 3655 8052 3655 8005
      3663 8006

$$

DS

000 
WWUS51 KRNK 082058
SVSRNK

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
457 PM EDT FRI JUN 8 2007

VAC141-082107-
/O.EXP.KRNK.SV.W.0078.000000T0000Z-070608T2100Z/
PATRICK VA-
457 PM EDT FRI JUN 8 2007

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR SOUTHERN PATRICK COUNTY
EXPIRES AT 500 PM EDT...

THUNDERSTORMS WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WILL CONTINUE ACROSS SOUTHERN 
PATRICK COUNTY...BUT THE CONCERN FOR SEVERE WEATHER IS ENDING.

TO REPORT SEVERE WEATHER...PLEASE CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE IN BLACKSBURG AT...1...8 6 6...2 1 5...4 3 2 4.

LAT...LON 3663 8048 3659 8056 3655 8052 3655 8005
      3663 8006

$$

DS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
314 PM EDT FRI JUN 8 2007

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT AND SATURDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTH FROM THE GREAT LAKES ON SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
ISOLATED TSTMS ARE DEVELOPING IN THE VERY WARM AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WELL AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT AND ASSOCIATED
LINE OF TSTMS IN KY/TN. SO FAR...THESE ISOLATED TSTMS HAVE NOT TAKEN
OFF AND COVERAGE MAY REMAIN SCATTERED AT BEST. THE LINE OF TSTMS HAS
ACCELERATED MUCH FASTER THAN 12Z MODELS PROGGED...AND LOOKS LIKE IT
MAY MOVE INTO FAR WRN SECTIONS AROUND 600 PM. WITH IT MOVING IN THAT
EARLY...WE WILL BE NEAR THE PEAK HTG AND THE LINE SHOULD MAKE IT AT
LEAST INTO THE REST OF THE MTNS...SO WILL HAVE THE HIGHEST POPS IN
THE FAR WEST OF HIGH LIKELY/LOW CATEGORICAL THROUGH MIDNIGHT...
TAPERING DOWN SHARPLY INTO LOW CHC OR SLIGHT CHC IN THE PIEDMONT.
SHOWERS/TSTMS SHOULD THEN BE TAPERING OFF BY MIDNIGHT WITH LOSS OF
HTG AND INSTABILITY.

WILL BE ANOTHER WARM AND MUGGY NIGHT WITH THE DRIER AIR BEHIND THE
FRONT NOT MOVING IN UNTIL SATURDAY...SO WILL HAVE WARM LOWS IN THE
60S TO AROUND 70.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND DIFFERENTIAL HEATING INCREASED CLOUD
COVER AND POPS FOR SATURDAY. WEST FLOW IN THE WEST WILL HOLD
CLOUDS IN THE WESTERN UPSLOPE AREAS. COOLER AIR AT THE MID LEVELS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY MAY BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY TO
CREATE SOME CONVECTION. HIGHEST CHANCE IN THE SOUTHEAST PORTION OF
CWA. ELECTED TO PUSH SLIGHT CHANCE BACK TO BLUE RIDGE MOUNTAINS.
BY LATER SATURDAY NIGHT...MOST CLOUDS WILL DISSIPATE...LEAVING THE
AREA WITH SUNSHINE AND WARM END OF THE WEEKEND...WITH LESS HUMID
AIR IN PLACE FOR SUNDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AN OMEGA BLOCK PROGGED TO DEVELOP EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH AN UPPER
LOW OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND SECOND OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES.
STALLED FRONTAL BNDRY WILL LINGER NEAR THE GULF COAST WITH EASTERLY
FLOW TO ITS NORTH ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY. EXPECT ONLY A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY IN THE MOUNTAINS. FRONTAL BOUNDARY
LIFTING NORTH WEDNESDAY INTO FRIDAY. FOR MEDIUM RANGE FOLLOWED
HPCGUIDE WHICH WAS A BLEND ECMWF AND NCEP ENS MEAN.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
WILL HAVE ENOUGH HEATING THIS AFTERNOON FOR ISOLD TO SCT TSTMS TO
DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA LATE IN THE AFTERNOON...AND INTO EARLY
EVENING. MEANWHILE...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY
ON FRIDAY WITH ORGANIZED CONVECTION AHEAD OF IT THAT MAY MOVE INTO
BLF AND LWB FRIDAY EVENING. I HAVE COVERED THE ISOLD-SCT LATE
AFT/EARLY EVE BY ADDING A PERIOD OF PREVAILING AT BLF AND LWB
WHERE THERE WILL BE BETTER COVERAGE...AND THEN JUST ADDING APERIOD
WITH VCNTY TSTMS AT ROA...LYH AND DAN. ANY TSTMS THAT DEVELOP WILL
BE STRONG...AND MAY BRING WIND GUSTS >40 MPH AND/OR HAIL. AT THIS
TIME...I HAVE NOT PUT IN ANYTHING FOR A POSSIBLE LINE MAKING IT
INTO THE BLF AND LWB AREAS AS ALL MODELS WEAKEN THE LINE BEFORE IT
GETS THAT FAR EAST. WITH A NW FLOW AND PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE...LWB AND ESPECIALLY BLF ARE LIKELY TO DROP TO MVFR AND
POSSIBLY IFR OVERNIGHT. LOWER CEILINGS COULD LAST INTO THE MORNING
IN SE WV.

THE DRIER AIR BEHIND THE FRONT IS SLOW TO CLEAR OUT THE
PIEDMONT AREAS SATURDAY...THERE MAY BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR POP-
UP TSTORMS AT ROA...LYH AND ESPECIALLY DAN.

WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN THE REGION FROM SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY...MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT IN THE MOUNTAIN VALLEYS
AND VFR CONDITIONS FOR ALL DURING THE DAY.

&&

.CLIMATE...
BLUEFIELD REACHED 88 DEGREES...AND BROKE THEIR RECORD HIGH FOR THE
DATE. THE OLD RECORD WAS 86 SET IN 1984

BLUEFIELD AND DANVILLE WILL LIKELY KEEP THEIR HIGH MINIMUMS
TEMPERATURE RECORDS FROM OVERNIGHT AS THEY WILL PROBABLY NOT DROP
BELOW 71 BEFORE MIDNIGHT UNLESS A THUNDERSTORM WITH HEAVY RAIN
DOES IT.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...JJ/KK/KM
NEAR TERM...JJ
SHORT TERM...KK
LONG TERM...KK
AVIATION...JJ
CLIMATE...

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
1242 PM EDT FRI JUN 8 2007

VAZ007-009-WVZ042-043-045-091645-
TAZEWELL-SMYTH-MERCER-SUMMERS-GREENBRIER-
1242 PM EDT FRI JUN 8 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA AND
SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. A FEW OF THESE STORMS MAY PRODUCE LARGE HAIL OR
DAMAGING WINDS. MEANWHILE...A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF A
COLD FRONT...WILL APPROACH THE AREA DURING THE EARLY EVENING
TODAY. THESE STORMS MAY BE SEVERE...DAMAGING WINDS THE MAIN
THREAT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED BY EARLY EVENING.

NCZ001>003-018-019-VAZ010>020-022>024-032>035-WVZ044-091645-
ASHE-ALLEGHANY NC-SURRY-WATAUGA-WILKES-BLAND-GILES-WYTHE-PULASKI-
MONTGOMERY-GRAYSON-CARROLL-FLOYD-CRAIG-ALLEGHANY VA-BATH-ROANOKE-
BOTETOURT-ROCKBRIDGE-PATRICK-FRANKLIN-BEDFORD-AMHERST-MONROE-
1242 PM EDT FRI JUN 8 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH CENTRAL NORTH
CAROLINA...NORTHWEST NORTH CAROLINA...CENTRAL VIRGINIA...SOUTH
CENTRAL VIRGINIA...SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA...WEST CENTRAL VIRGINIA AND
SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE INTO THE EARLY EVENING. A FEW OF THESE
STORMS MAY PRODUCE LARGE HAIL OR DAMAGING WINDS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED BY EARLY EVENING.

NCZ004>006-020-VAZ043>047-058-059-091645-
STOKES-ROCKINGHAM-CASWELL-YADKIN-HENRY-PITTSYLVANIA-CAMPBELL-
APPOMATTOX-BUCKINGHAM-HALIFAX-CHARLOTTE-
1242 PM EDT FRI JUN 8 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH CENTRAL NORTH
CAROLINA...NORTHWEST NORTH CAROLINA...CENTRAL VIRGINIA AND SOUTH
CENTRAL VIRGINIA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BY EARLY EVENING.
ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP MAY PRODUCE LARGE HAIL OR DAMAGING WINDS.
IN ADDITION...A VERY WARM AND HUMID AIRMASS WILL BE OVER THE
REGION THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
THROUGH LATE TONIGHT OR EARLY SATURDAY. HEAT INDEX VALUES MAY
PUSH JUST ABOVE 100 DEGREES AT TIMES DURING THE AFTERNOON.
SOMEWHAT COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEKEND.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
346 PM EDT FRI JUN 8 2007

VAZ016-032-082045-
PATRICK VA-CARROLL VA-
346 PM EDT FRI JUN 8 2007

...THUNDERSTORMS MOVING THROUGH SOUTHEAST CARROLL AND PATRICK
COUNTIES...

AT 344 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 4 MILES NORTHWEST OF ARARAT...OR ABOUT OVER
GROUNDHOG MOUNTAIN...MOVING EAST AT 10 MPH. A SECOND STRONG
THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED 4 MILES WEST OF STUART...AND MOVING EAST AT
10 MPH.

THESE STORMS WILL BRING RAINFALL RATES OVER 1 INCH PER HOUR WHICH
MAY CAUSE FLOODING OF LOW LYING AREAS AS WELL SMALL HAIL AND
LIGHTNING. THOSE AREAS NEAR ARARAT AND STUART ARE IN THE PATH OF
THIS STORM.

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION...VISIT US ON THE WEB AT
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV.

PH