Severe Thunderstorm Warning 275, NWS Blacksburg, VA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
328 PM EDT TUE AUG 21 2007

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE TO MEANDER ACROSS PARTS OF
THE AREA THROUGH THURSDAY. THE FRONT WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR
SCATTERED MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNRDERSTORMS. STRONG
HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD BUILD BACK IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST BY WEEKS END
KEEPING HOT AND HUMID WEATHER GOING INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
SHOWERS AND TSTMS WIDESPREAD AHEAD OF LEFTOVERS FROM ERIN. STRONG
MID LEVEL WINDS MIXING DOWN WITH HEAVIER CELLS AND PRODUCING WIND
DAMAGE. SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 629 IN EFFECT FOR MOST OF THE
AREA UNTIL 9PM.

ONCE ACTIVITY DISSIPATES THIS EVENING...EXPECT WINDS TO TAME DOWN
WITH LOW STRATUS LIKELY TO FORM AGAIN ALONG AND EAST OF THE BLUE
RIDGE FOR THE LATE NIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
SHORT WAVE MOVING OVHD TUESDAY EVENING WILL ALLOW SHALLOW WEDGE
OF SLIGHTLY COOLER MOIST AIR TO BACKDOOR INTO THE AREA FOR
WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. LOW STRATUS WILL LIKELY FORM AND
PERSIST...ESP NORTHERN AND EASTERN CWA. SOUTHERN AND WESTERN CWA
MAY ESCAPE THE WEDGE OF COOLER MOIST AIR...THUS MAINTAINED WARMER
TEMPS THERE. WITH FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN THE AREA...AFTERNOON HEATING
MAY IGNITE A FEW THUNDERSTORMS...MOST OF WHICH SHOULD DISSIPATE
AFTER SUNSET.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL GRADUALLY DISSIPATE THURSDAY AS UPPER RIDGE
BUILDS BACK ACROSS THE AREA FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. TEMP FCST A LITTLE
TRICKY THURSDAY AS REMNANTS OF BOUNDARY MAY ONCE AGAIN RESULT IN
SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS EAST. BY FRIDAY...FLOW ALOFT BECOMES
WESTERLY WITH RETURN OF HEAT FOR THE ENTIRE CWA.

THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. RIDGE REMAINS DOMINANT THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK. BEYOND THAT (240 HRS OUT) THE GFS HINTS AT UPPER RIDGE
AMPLIFYING OVER THE WRN CONUS WITH TROF SETTLING OVER THE EAST.
IF THIS VERIFIES...COLD FRONT WILL BRING CHANGE IN TEMPS TOWARD
THE END OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SCT SHRA/TSRA LIKELY THROUGH SUNSET...THEN DIMINISHING. STRONG
WINDS LIKELY IN THE VCNTY OF THESE STORMS. SHALLOW BOUNDARY OF
COOL MOIST AIR WILL DEVELOP IN THE WAKE OF THIS EVENINGS
TSTMS...THIS MAY RESULT IN LAYER OF STRATUS ALONG AND EAST OF THE
BLUE RIDGE WHICH MAY PERSIST INTO THE DAY WEDNESDAY.

A LULL IN THE HEAT WILL OCCUR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. LOW CIGS
MAY DEVELOP ALONG AND EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE AGAIN WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. RETURN OF HEAT AND MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED
FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THREAT FOR AFTN/EVE
SHRA/TSRA EXIST EACH DAY...MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

&&

.CLIMATE...
ROANOKE...BLUEFIELD...AND BLACKSBURG ALREADY AHEAD OF A PACE TO
BREAK MONTHLY AVERAGE AUGUST HEAT RECORDS LOOKING AT DATA THROUGH
AUGUST 20. ROANOKE OVER 2 DEGREES AHEAD OF THE PREVIOUS RECORD
PACE FOR THE FIRST 20 DAYS BACK IN THE DROUGHT YEAR OF 1988. THE
NEXT 7 DAYS WILL DO NOTHING BUT PAD THOSE NUMBERS. DANVILLE ON
PACE FOR 2ND HIGHEST...WHILE LYNCHBURG WITH A LONGER PERIOD OF
RECORD AND SOMEWHAT LESS EXTREME HEAT IS NOT IN THE TOP 10 YET.
RAINFALL NUMBERS ARE NOT MUCH BETTER AND SEVERAL STATIONS COULD
STILL SET ALL-TIME DRIEST AUGUST...BLACKSBURG HAS ONLY 0.12
INCHES THIS MONTH. WITH THE HEAT/DRY COMBINATION THE DROUGHT
CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO WORSEN ACROSS THE AREA.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...PM
NEAR TERM...JS/PM
SHORT TERM...PM
LONG TERM...PM
AVIATION...PM
CLIMATE...PC

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
226 PM EDT TUE AUG 21 2007

NCZ001-002-018-VAZ013>020-022>024-032>035-045>047-059-221830-
ASHE-ALLEGHANY NC-WATAUGA-PULASKI-MONTGOMERY-GRAYSON-CARROLL-FLOYD-
CRAIG-ALLEGHANY VA-BATH-ROANOKE-BOTETOURT-ROCKBRIDGE-PATRICK-
FRANKLIN-BEDFORD-AMHERST-CAMPBELL-APPOMATTOX-BUCKINGHAM-CHARLOTTE-
226 PM EDT TUE AUG 21 2007

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 629 IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWEST NORTH
CAROLINA...CENTRAL VIRGINIA...SOUTH CENTRAL VIRGINIA...SOUTHWEST
VIRGINIA AND WEST CENTRAL VIRGINIA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH.

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON COULD YIELD
DAMAGING WINDS IN A FEW AREAS. ISOLATED LARGE HAIL IS ALSO
POSSIBLE BUT THE MAIN THREAT WILL BE SEVERE STRAIGHT-LINE WINDS
THROUGH EARLY EVENING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

VAZ007-009>012-WVZ042>045-221830-
TAZEWELL-SMYTH-BLAND-GILES-WYTHE-MERCER-SUMMERS-MONROE-GREENBRIER-
226 PM EDT TUE AUG 21 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA AND
SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON COULD YIELD
DAMAGING WINDS IN A FEW AREAS. ISOLATED LARGE HAIL IS ALSO
POSSIBLE BUT THE MAIN THREAT WILL BE SEVERE STRAIGHT-LINE WINDS
THROUGH EARLY EVENING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

NCZ003>006-019-020-VAZ043-044-058-221830-
SURRY-STOKES-ROCKINGHAM-CASWELL-WILKES-YADKIN-HENRY-PITTSYLVANIA-
HALIFAX-
226 PM EDT TUE AUG 21 2007

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 629 IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH CENTRAL NORTH
CAROLINA...NORTHWEST NORTH CAROLINA AND SOUTH CENTRAL VIRGINIA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH.

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON COULD YIELD
DAMAGING WINDS IN A FEW AREAS. ISOLATED LARGE HAIL IS ALSO
POSSIBLE BUT THE MAIN THREAT WILL BE SEVERE STRAIGHT-LINE WINDS
THROUGH EARLY EVENING.

ALSO..THERE IS AN INCREASED FIRE DANGER ACROSS NORTH CAROLINA AND
SOUTHERN VIRGINIA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE COMBINATION OF
HOT TEMPERATURES AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL RESULT IN AN ELEVATED
FIRE DANGER THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
253 PM EDT TUE AUG 21 2007

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0227 PM     HAIL             2 N BYLLESBY            36.81N 80.93W
08/21/2007  E0.88 INCH       CARROLL            VA   UNKNOWN

            REPORTED AT BUCK DAM.

&&

PC

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
304 PM EDT TUE AUG 21 2007

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0250 PM     TSTM WND DMG     1 E VINTON              37.27N 79.87W
08/21/2007                   ROANOKE            VA   STORM CHASER

            TREES DOWN ON BLUE RIDGE PARKWAY

&&

PC

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
307 PM EDT TUE AUG 21 2007

NCZ001-002-018-212000-
WATAUGA NC-ALLEGHANY NC-ASHE NC-
307 PM EDT TUE AUG 21 2007

AT 303 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 4 MILES NORTHEAST OF
LAUREL SPGS TO 5 MILES NORTHWEST OF BEECH MOUNTAIN...MOVING EAST AT
30 MPH. THE LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE NEAR...SPARTA...
ROMINGER AT 315 PM EDT...VALLE CRUCIS...SUGAR GROVE AT 320 PM EDT...
GLADE VALLEY...LOVILL AT 325 PM EDT...TODD...GLENDALE SPRINGS AT 330
PM EDT...SANDS...FLEETWOOD AT 335 PM EDT...

WIND GUSTS TO 45 MPH AND SMALL HAIL ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS
STORM...AS WELL AS FREQUENT LIGHTNING.

REMAIN INDOORS IF POSSIBLE UNTIL THE STORMS PASS... AND LISTEN TO
NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR YOUR FAVORITE MEDIA OUTLET FOR UPDATES ON THIS
DEVELOPING SITUATION.

SK

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
317 PM EDT TUE AUG 21 2007

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0149 PM     TSTM WND GST     7 NW RADFORD            37.20N 80.66W
08/21/2007  E60 MPH          PULASKI            VA   PUBLIC

&&

PC

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
327 PM EDT TUE AUG 21 2007

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0149 PM     TSTM WND DMG     MOUNTAIN LAKE           37.35N 80.55W
08/21/2007                   GILES              VA   PUBLIC

            TREE DOWN OVER ROUTE 613

&&

PC

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
329 PM EDT TUE AUG 21 2007

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0315 PM     TSTM WND DMG     BEDFORD CITY            37.34N 79.52W
08/21/2007                   CITY OF BEDFORD    VA   PUBLIC

            LARGE TREES DOWN.

&&

PC