Alert archive / Virginia / Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in 2007

Severe Thunderstorm Warning 255, NWS Blacksburg, VA

August 3, 2007Tazewell County, Virginia

NWS Blacksburg, VA issued this severe thunderstorm warning at Aug 3, 2007, 7:04 PM EDT for Tazewell County, Virginia. It was in force for 38 min. No storm report in the archive falls inside the area while it was in force.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued: Aug 3, 2007, 7:04 PM EDT (23:04 UTC)
Expired: Aug 3, 2007, 7:42 PM EDT
In force: 38 min
Issued by: NWS Blacksburg, VA
Area: Counties, with a storm outline in the text

County Tazewell County, VA

The radar

The Roanoke radar (KFCX), 126 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 23:04 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

Did it verify

Not verified. The Iowa Environmental Mesonet's Cow found no qualifying storm report inside this severe thunderstorm warning while it was in force. That is not proof nothing happened: reports are thin where few people live.

Cow counts a report within 15 km of the polygon while the warning was in force: a tornado for a tornado warning; hail of 1 inch or more, a gust of 58 mph or more or wind damage for a severe thunderstorm warning; a flash flood report for a flash flood warning.

The nearest sounding before it

Greensboro/Hi Pt, NC (KGSO), launched 12:00Z, 11.1 hours before the alert went out and 192 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-p

Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.

Hodograph

The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.

Mixed-layer CAPE: 249 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN: -93 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL: 1246 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear: 11 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity: 24 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity: 31 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter: 0.0
Supercell composite: 0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

000 
WUUS51 KRNK 032304
SVRRNK
VAC185-040000-
/O.NEW.KRNK.SV.W.0255.070803T2304Z-070804T0000Z/

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
704 PM EDT FRI AUG 3 2007

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BLACKSBURG HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
  SOUTHWESTERN TAZEWELL COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA

* UNTIL 800 PM EDT

* AT 700 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
  SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING PENNY SIZE HAIL...AND
  DESTRUCTIVE WINDS IN EXCESS OF 70 MPH.  THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR
  CLAYPOOL HILL...OR ABOUT 6 MILES SOUTH OF RICHLANDS...AND MOVING
  SOUTHEAST AT 10 MPH.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
  CLAYPOOL HILL.

HAIL...INTENSE RAIN AND STRONG DAMAGING WINDS ARE LIKELY FROM THIS
STORM. TAKE COVER IN A STURDY STRUCTURE UNTIL THE STORM PASSES.

IN ADDITION...TORRENTIAL RAINS MAY FLOOD LOW LYING AREAS SUCH AS 
DITCHES AND UNDERPASSES. DO NOT DRIVE INTO AREAS WHERE WATER COVERS 
THE ROAD

PLEASE SEND YOUR REPORTS OF PENNY OR LARGER SIZED HAIL...AS WELL AS
WIND DAMAGE...INCLUDING TREES OR LARGE LIMBS DOWNED BY CALLING THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOLL FREE AT...1...8 6 6...2 1 5...4 3 2 4.

LAT...LON 3715 8164 3702 8192 3696 8177 3694 8167
      3700 8152

$$

AMS

2 follow-up statements

000 
WWUS51 KRNK 032329
SVSRNK

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
729 PM EDT FRI AUG 3 2007

VAC185-040000-
/O.CON.KRNK.SV.W.0255.000000T0000Z-070804T0000Z/
TAZEWELL VA-
729 PM EDT FRI AUG 3 2007

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 800 PM EDT
FOR SOUTHWESTERN TAZEWELL COUNTY...

AT 725 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO
INDICATE A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING PENNY SIZE
HAIL...AND DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH.  THIS STORM WAS
LOCATED 7 MILES SOUTHEAST OF CLAYPOOL HILL...OR ABOUT 8 MILES
NORTHEAST OF SALTVILLE...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 10 MPH.

OTHER LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO
ASBERRYS.

IF SEVERE WEATHER APPROACHES YOUR AREA...GO INSIDE A STURDY SHELTER.

LAT...LON 3715 8164 3702 8192 3696 8177 3694 8167
      3700 8152

$$

AMS

000 
WWUS51 KRNK 032342
SVSRNK

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
742 PM EDT FRI AUG 3 2007

VAC185-032352-
/O.CAN.KRNK.SV.W.0255.000000T0000Z-070804T0000Z/
TAZEWELL VA-
742 PM EDT FRI AUG 3 2007

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR SOUTHWESTERN TAZEWELL COUNTY
IS CANCELLED...

THE STORM HAS WEAKENED AND MOVED OUT OF THE COUNTY. 

TO REPORT SEVERE WEATHER...PLEASE CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE IN BLACKSBURG AT...1 8 6 6...2 1 5...4 3 2 4.

LAT...LON 3715 8164 3702 8192 3696 8177 3694 8167
      3700 8152

$$

AMS

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this severe thunderstorm warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Blacksburg, VA wrote its last area forecast discussion before this severe thunderstorm warning went out at Aug 3, 2:50 PM EDT, 4 hours 14 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Aug 3, 2:50 PM EDT, 4 hours 14 minutes before

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
250 PM EDT FRI AUG 3 2007

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN PLAINS WILL BUILD SLOWLY
EAST AND INTO THE EASTERN U.S. NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL BRING HOT AND
HUMID WEATHER TO OUR AREA...WITH ONLY ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED
AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY IN THE MOUNTAINS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AFTERNOON ISOLD CONVECTION MAINLY OVER HIGHER TERRAIN WILL DRIFT
SLOWLY EAST OVER THE FOOTHILLS INTO THIS EVENING. EXPECTING THE MORE
ORGANIZED CLUSTER THAT IS MOVING THROUGH ERN KY THIS AFTERNOON ASSOC
WITH WEAK UPR TROUGH TO SNEAK INTO FAR SOUTHWEST PORTION OF CWA BUT
THEN WEAKEN WITH LOSS OF HEATING. STORMS SEEM TO BE DRIFTING ALONG
SO FAR BUT WILL HAVE TO CONTINUE TO WATCH CAREFULLY THROUGH EARLY
EVENING FOR BACKBUILDING ALONG RIDGES...AS WELL AS TAZEWELL AREA
WERE SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL OCCURRED LAST EVENING.

CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY EXPECTED TO WEAKEN QUICKLY WITH LOSS OF
HEATING...WITH POSSIBLE EXCEPTION OF DOWN IN THE SOUTHWEST UNDER
MORE INFLUENCE FROM WEAK UPR TROUGH AND GOOD THETA-E RDG...AS WELL
AS WESTERLY FLOW INTO RIDGES.  STILL..ANYTHING LINGERING PAST DARK WILL BE
VERY ISOLD.  VALLEY FOG LIKELY AGAIN IN THE MTNS BY LATE TONIGHT...BUT
EVENING SHIFT WILL HAVE TO CONSIDER ADDING ADDITIONAL FOG AREAS
DEPENDING ON WHERE ANY RAINFALL IS LINGERING INTO THE EVENING.

SATURDAY VERY SIMILAR TO TODAY...ONLY PERHAPS EVEN A DEG OR TWO
HOTTER WITH LOW LEVEL THICKNESS VALUES UP A NOTCH AHEAD OF THE WEAK
FRONT AND UPPER WAVE APPROACHING FROM NW.  WEAK FLOW BUT SLIGHTLY MORE
WESTERLY COULD SERVE TO FOCUS MORE OF THE ACTIVITY ALONG WRN SLOPES
VS THE BLUE RDG...BUT ISOLD ACTIVITY STILL POSSIBLE ALONG ANY OF THE
HIGH TERRAIN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
OUT OF THE FULL FORECAST PERIOD...THIS PERIOD WILL BE THE MOST
COMPLICATED AS MODELS ARE DIFFERING ON PLACEMENT/TRACK OF A MCS. MODELS
AGREE ON A BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE MOVING INTO THE SOUTHERN
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ON SUNDAY. A SHORT WAVE TRACKING ALONG THE OUTER
RINGS OF THIS RIDGE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY. WHERE IT GOES
FROM THERE IS THE BIG QUESTION. NAM/CAN KEEP BULK OF THE ENERGY
NEAR LAKE ERIE. GFS DROPS THE WAVE SOUTH THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY AND
DIRECTLY OVER RNK CWA. WITH DISCONTINUITY WITH THE MODELS...WILL
ONLY CARRY CHANCE POPS FOR SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. IF THE GFS MODEL
IS CORRECT...TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S ACROSS THE
WEST AND MID TO UPPER 80S IN THE EAST. IF NAM IS THE SUPERIOR
MODEL...80S ARE FORECASTED ACROSS THE WEST AND 90S IN THE EAST. FOR
THIS FORECAST PACKAGE...PLAYED TEMPERATURES BETWEEN THE TWO.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL MOVE FROM THE GULF STATES AND INTO THE
SOUTHEASTERN STATES NEXT WEEK. WITH HEIGHTS BUILDING AND TROPICAL
CHARACTERISTICS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM...HOT AND HUMID
CONDITIONS ARE ABOUND. RECORD TEMPERATURES ARE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE WEST. CONVECTION ACTIVITY WILL BE LIMITED WITH THIS
SYSTEM BUT CAN NOT RULE OUT SCATTERED STORMS STARTING IN THE
MOUNTAINS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND DRIFTING TO THE EAST DURING THE
EVENING. STORMS MAY NOT MOVE MUCH ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND
WITH A TROPICAL LIKE ATMOSPHERE TO WORK WITH...LOCALIZED
TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS WILL BE POSSIBLE.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AT 17Z ISOLD CONVECTION WAS JUST BEGINNING TO DEVELOP ALONG AND
NEAR THE BLUE RDG...WITH A BIGGER CLUSTER WELL TO TEH WEST IN
EASTERN KY. FCST OF ISOLD THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IN THE EAST AND
SCATTERED IN THE WEST WILL LIKELY MEAN STORMS MISS AIRPORT SITES
THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING...BUT WILL CONTINUE WITH MENTION
OF VCTS FOR WRN AIRPORTS STARTING BY 19Z IN WV AND A LITTLE LATER
AROUND ROA. A STORM WOULD HAVE TO MOVE DIRECTLY OVER FOR
MVFR...AND IFR ONLY A REMOTE POSSIBILITY AND WOULD BE VERY BRIEF
IF AT ALL. SKIES SHOULD CLEAR WITH DISSIPATING STORMS BY LATE
EVENING...AND SOME FOG AGAIN POSSIBLE IN VALLEYS AND WHERE IT
RAINS. AT THIS POINT GOING WITH CLIMATOLOGY AT LWB WITH SOME LIFR
FOG FOR A COUPLE HOURS TOWARD DAWN. SIMILAR SCENARIO FOR SATURDAY
BUT CONVECTION MAY BE EVEN LESS LIKELY TO GET EAST OF THE BLUE RDG
WITH WEAK WESTERLY FLOW. WINDS LIGHT WESTERLY AND NOT AN ISSUE.

SUNDAY THROUGH NEXT WEEK...MORE ORGANIZED CONVECTION MAY MOVE IN TO THE
WEST ON SUNDAY BUT TIMING UNCLEAR AT THIS POINT...OTHERWISE WARM
AND HUMID AIRMASS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE...TYPICAL OF
AUGUST...PROVIDING A 20-30 PERCENT CHANCE OF SCATTERED
STORMS...MAINLY IN THE MOUNTAINS...EACH DAY THROUGH NEXT WEEK.

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORD TEMPERATURES FOR AUGUST 4TH.

ROANOKE...98 IN 1955
LYNCHBURG...100 IN 1930
DANVILLE...101 IN 1987
BLACKBURG...95 IN 1987
BLUEFIELD...90 IN 1995

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...JJ/RCS
NEAR TERM...RCS/SK
SHORT TERM...RCS
LONG TERM...RCS
AVIATION...RCS/SK
CLIMATE...

Hazardous weather outlook, Aug 3, 5:26 AM EDT, 13 hours 38 minutes before

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
526 AM EDT FRI AUG 3 2007

NCZ001>004-018>020-VAZ007-009>020-022>024-032>035-043-045>047-
WVZ042>045-040930-
ASHE-ALLEGHANY NC-SURRY-STOKES-WATAUGA-WILKES-YADKIN-TAZEWELL-SMYTH-
BLAND-GILES-WYTHE-PULASKI-MONTGOMERY-GRAYSON-CARROLL-FLOYD-CRAIG-
ALLEGHANY VA-BATH-ROANOKE-BOTETOURT-ROCKBRIDGE-PATRICK-FRANKLIN-
BEDFORD-AMHERST-HENRY-CAMPBELL-APPOMATTOX-BUCKINGHAM-MERCER-SUMMERS-
MONROE-GREENBRIER-
526 AM EDT FRI AUG 3 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH CENTRAL NORTH
CAROLINA...NORTHWEST NORTH CAROLINA...CENTRAL VIRGINIA...SOUTH
CENTRAL VIRGINIA...SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA...WEST CENTRAL VIRGINIA AND
SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE STORMS WILL BE SLOW
MOVING...SO HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND LOCALIZED FLOODING ARE POSSIBLE IN
A FEW LOCATIONS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

NCZ005-006-VAZ044-058-059-040930-
ROCKINGHAM-CASWELL-PITTSYLVANIA-HALIFAX-CHARLOTTE-
526 AM EDT FRI AUG 3 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA
AND SOUTH CENTRAL VIRGINIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

In the hours before

Special weather statement, Aug 3, 3:52 PM EDT, 3 hours 12 minutes before

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
352 PM EDT FRI AUG 3 2007

VAZ033-044-032015-
FRANKLIN VA-PITTSYLVANIA VA-
352 PM EDT FRI AUG 3 2007

AT 349 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 5 MILES SOUTH OF PENHOOK...OR ABOUT 3 MILES
NORTHWEST OF SAGO...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 5 MPH. THE STRONG
THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...AJAX AT 400 PM EDT...SAGO AT 410 PM
EDT...AND CALLANDS AT 415 PM EDT.

EXPECT RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF ONE TO TWO INCHES BEFORE 5:00PM. SMALL
HAIL IS ALSO LIKELY.

LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR YOUR FAVORITE MEDIA OUTLET FOR
UPDATES ON THIS DEVELOPING SITUATION.

AMS

Special weather statement, Aug 3, 4:50 PM EDT, 2 hours 14 minutes before

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
450 PM EDT FRI AUG 3 2007

VAZ022-033-034-032130-
FRANKLIN VA-ROANOKE VA-BEDFORD VA-
450 PM EDT FRI AUG 3 2007

...STRONG THUNDERSTORM IN EXTREME NORTHERN FRANKLIN COUNTY...

AT 448 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 6 MILES SOUTH OF STEWARTSVILLE...OR ABOUT 6 MILES
WEST OF NORTHWEST SMITH MOUNTAIN LAKE. THE STORM WAS NEARLY
STATIONARY. THE STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL BE EAR STEWARTSVILLE AND
GOODVIEW AT 530 PM EDT.

EXPECT FREQUENT DANGEROUS LIGHTNING AND POSSIBLE SMALL HAIL IN THE
THE PATH OF THIS STORM.

AMS

Local storm report, Aug 3, 5:24 PM EDT, 1 hour 40 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
524 PM EDT FRI AUG 03 2007

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0450 PM     HAIL             5 N AXTON               36.74N 79.72W
08/03/2007  E0.75 INCH       HENRY              VA   PUBLIC

&&

RMG

Special weather statement, Aug 3, 5:36 PM EDT, 1 hour 28 minutes before

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
536 PM EDT FRI AUG 3 2007

NCZ002-003-032230-
SURRY NC-ALLEGHANY NC-
536 PM EDT FRI AUG 3 2007

AT 531 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 3 MILES SOUTHEAST OF ENNICE...OR ABOUT OVER
BARRETT...MOVING EAST AT 5 MPH. THE STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL BE
NEAR...CUMBERLAND KNOB AT 550 PM EDT AND LOW GAP AT 605 PM EDT.

EXPECT RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF ONE TO TWO INCHES BY 6:30 PM.

LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR YOUR FAVORITE MEDIA OUTLET FOR
UPDATES ON THIS DEVELOPING SITUATION.

AMS

Local storm report, Aug 3, 6:32 PM EDT, 32 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
632 PM EDT FRI AUG 03 2007

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0502 PM     TSTM WND DMG     2 W MOUNT AIRY          36.50N 80.65W
08/03/2007                   SURRY              NC   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            LARGE TREE ACROSS SOUTH BOUND LANE OF I77.

0527 PM     TSTM WND DMG     MOUNT AIRY              36.50N 80.61W
08/03/2007                   SURRY              NC   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            LARGE TREE DOWN ACROSS HWY 52.

0539 PM     TSTM WND DMG     MOUNT AIRY              36.50N 80.61W
08/03/2007                   SURRY              NC   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            SEVERAL TREES DOWN ON EAST SIDE OF CITY. NUMEROUS POWER
            OUTAGES REPORTED.

&&

RSTONEFI

The office that day

Everything else NWS Blacksburg, VA issued on the same UTC day.

Issued	Product	Office	Counties	Lasted
Aug 3, 4:24 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	RNK	Henry, Pittsylvania	52 min
Aug 3, 7:13 PM EDT	Flash Flood Warning	RNK	Bath	4 hr

Nearby

Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in Virginia, 2007 Every severe thunderstorm warning in 2007

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.