Severe Thunderstorm Warning 212, NWS Blacksburg, VA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
311 PM EDT TUE JUL 17 2007

.SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE BERMUDA HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN.
THIS WEATHER FEATURE WILL RESULT IN A DAILY THREAT OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THURSDAY...AS SOUTHWEST FLOW BRINGS MOISTURE
NORTHWARD INTO THE AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL RUN NEAR NORMAL THROUGH
THE WEEK WITH HEAT AND HUMIDITY TYPICAL OF MID SUMMER. A COLD
FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE REGION ON FRIDAY...FOLLOWED BY COOLER
DRIER WEATHER FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
DIURNAL ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO WANE WITH LOSS OF
HEATING...HOWEVER...WL MAINTAIN POPS DURING THE OVERNIGHT PER
POTENTIAL FOR MCS TO MOVE EAST OUT OF THE OHIO VALLEY...POSSIBLY
REACHING OUR CWA. SFC FRONT THAT IS DRAPED OVER OUR CWA EXTENDS
NORTHWEST INTO THE SOUTHERN OHIO VALLEY AND MIDWEST. THIS FRONT
HAS BEEN FOCUS FOR BOTH DIURNAL AND NOCTURNAL TSTM ACTIVITY.

WEDNESDAY LOOKS TO BE A NEAR REPEAT OF TODAY...WITH THE BEST
COVERAGE OF THE MOUNTAIN EMPIRE REGION OF SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA AND
THE MOUNTAINS OF NORTHWEST NORTH CAROLINA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
TOMORROW NIGHT AND THURSDAY WILL BE A NEAR REPEAT OF TONIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY EXCEPT THERE MAY BE JUST A LITTLE BIT LESS
COVERAGE...BUT THE FOCUS FOR THE BEST COVERAGE IN THE WEST.
THURSDAY NIGHT THE LONG EXPECTED COLD FRONT WILL BE MAKING ITS WAY
SOUTH THROUGH WEST VIRGINIA WITH THE INFLUENCE OF IT REACHING THE
NORTHWEST PART OF THE FORECAST AREA LATE IN THE NIGHT. WILL HAVE
LIKELY POPS IN FAR SOUTHEAST VIRGINIA IN THE PRE-DAWN HOURS. ON
FRIDAY THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION WITH THE BEST POPS IN
THE WEST IN THE MORNING...AND THEN AGAIN IN THE AFTERNOON ACROSS
SOUTHSIDE VIRGINIA. COULD BE A BIT OF A BREAK IN THE ACTIVITY JUST
EAST OF THE CREST OF THE BLUE RIDGE.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO VERY EARLY SATURDAY MORNING THE COLD FRONT WILL BE
SOUTH OF THE AREA...BUT A WAVE MOVING NORTH ALONG IT MAY ALLOW FOR
SOME LINGERING SHOWERS OR STORMS ACROSS PRIMARILY SOUTHEASTERN PARTS
OF THE FORECAST AREA. BY SUNDAY INTO MONDAY COOLER AND DRIER HIGH
PRESSURE WILL SETTLE OVER THE REGION. THE UNCLEAR FORECAST QUESTION
IS JUST HOW LONG WILL THE INFLUENCE OF THE HIGH BE OVERHEAD BEFORE
IT SHIFTS TO OUR EAST...THUS ALLOWING A BETTER FLOW INTO THE
AREA...AND ONCE AGAIN INCREASING CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION. FOR NOW
GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTIES...HAVE CONTINUED WITH A DRY FORECAST THROUGH
TUESDAY WITH TEMPERATURES STARTING TO WARM SLIGHTLY.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SCATTERED TSTMS HAVE DEVELOPED EARLY THIS AFT RIGHT ALONG AND WEST
OF THE BLUE RIDGE MTNS. THESE STORMS SHOULD INCREASE IN COVERAGE
AS THEY MOVE EASTWARD INTO A VERY MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS. ROA
WILL HAVE TSTMS IN THE AREA THROUGH ABOUT 19Z...SO I HAVE ADDED IN
A TEMPO GROUP THERE TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS. OTHERWISE...BECAUSE OF
THE SCT NATURE OF THE STORMS...I HAVE JUST ADDED TSTMS IN THE
VCNTY TO ALL TAF SITES DURING THE PERIOD I EXPECT THEM TO LAST-
WOULD LIKELY BE LATEST INTO THE EVENING AT DANVILLE...AND THEN
ALSO AT BLF AND LWB AS STORMS ARE GETTING A LATER START TO THE
WEST OF THEM. STORMS MAY ACTUALLY LINGER WELL INTO THE NIGHT AS
MODELS SOME UPPER SUPPORT IN THE FORM OF A WEAK SHORT WAVE MOVING
ACROSS THE CENTRAL APPLNS.

ASIDE FROM DIURNAL THUNDERSTORM THREAT...MAINLY MVFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED OVERNIGHT WITH LIGHT FOG DEVELOPING. EXCEPTION WOULD BE
LWB...WHERE RIVER VALLEY FOG WILL BRING LIFR CONDS FOR A FEW HOURS
AROUND DAYBREAK.

THIS STORM/FOG PATTERN LOOKS TO CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY. DRIER
WEATHER RETURNS TO THE REGION THIS WEEKEND WITH A PASSAGE OF A
COLD FRONT.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...PM
NEAR TERM...JJ/DS
SHORT TERM...DS
LONG TERM...DS
AVIATION...JJ

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
1227 PM EDT TUE JUL 17 2007

NCZ001>006-018>020-VAZ007-009>020-022>024-032>035-043>047-058-059-
WVZ042>045-181630-
ASHE-ALLEGHANY NC-SURRY-STOKES-ROCKINGHAM-CASWELL-WATAUGA-WILKES-
YADKIN-TAZEWELL-SMYTH-BLAND-GILES-WYTHE-PULASKI-MONTGOMERY-GRAYSON-
CARROLL-FLOYD-CRAIG-ALLEGHANY VA-BATH-ROANOKE-BOTETOURT-ROCKBRIDGE-
PATRICK-FRANKLIN-BEDFORD-AMHERST-HENRY-PITTSYLVANIA-CAMPBELL-
APPOMATTOX-BUCKINGHAM-HALIFAX-CHARLOTTE-MERCER-SUMMERS-MONROE-
GREENBRIER-
1227 PM EDT TUE JUL 17 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH CENTRAL NORTH
CAROLINA...NORTHWEST NORTH CAROLINA...CENTRAL VIRGINIA...SOUTH
CENTRAL VIRGINIA...SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA...WEST CENTRAL VIRGINIA AND
SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

SCATTERED SLOW MOVING THUNDERSTORMS MAY PRODUCE LOCALIZED FLOODING
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. IN ADDITION...ISOLATED STORMS WILL
HAVE DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND PENNY SIZED HAIL. THE GREATEST
COVERAGE OF THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS ANTICIPATED FROM THE NORTH
CAROLINA MOUNTAINS...NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE INTO
SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. SOME OF THE STORMS MAY CONTAIN VERY
HEAVY RAIN WHICH COULD PRODUCE LOCALIZED FLOODING. ISOLATED STORMS
MAY ALSO CONTAIN DAMAGING WIND GUSTS...PENNY SIZE HAIL...AND
FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
235 PM EDT TUE JUL 17 2007

VAZ022-171930-
ROANOKE VA-
235 PM EDT TUE JUL 17 2007

AT 231 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM OVER ROANOKE...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 10 MPH. THE
STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...HOLLINS AT 245 PM EDT...VINTON AT
250 PM EDT...

EXPECT FREQUENT DANGEROUS LIGHTNING IN THE PATH OF THIS
STORM...ALONG WITH WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH AND SMALL HAIL.

LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR YOUR FAVORITE MEDIA OUTLET FOR
UPDATES ON THIS DEVELOPING SITUATION.

KM

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
320 PM EDT TUE JUL 17 2007

NCZ020-171930-
YADKIN NC-
320 PM EDT TUE JUL 17 2007

AT 318 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 2 MILES SOUTHWEST OF BOONVILLE...MOVING EAST AT
10 MPH. THE STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...NEBO...NEBO AT 330 PM
EDT...

EXPECT FREQUENT DANGEROUS LIGHTNING IN THE PATH OF THIS STORM...WITH
WIND GUSTS TO 45 MPH AND HEAVY RAIN.

LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR YOUR FAVORITE MEDIA OUTLET FOR
UPDATES ON THIS DEVELOPING SITUATION.

KM

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
327 PM EDT TUE JUL 17 2007

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1252 PM     HAIL             1 W FRIES               36.72N 80.98W
07/17/2007  E0.75 INCH       GRAYSON            VA   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

WHP