Flood Watch 4, NWS Blacksburg, VA

Caswell County, NC, Rockingham County, NC, Stokes County, NC, Surry County, NC, Wilkes County, NC, Yadkin County, NC, Amherst County, VA, Appomattox County, VA, Bedford County, VA, Buckingham County, VA, Campbell County, VA, Charlotte County, VA, City of Danville, VA, City of Lynchburg, VA, City of Martinsville, VA, Franklin County, VA, Halifax County, VA, Henry County, VA, Patrick County, VA, Pittsylvania County, VA, Mercer County, WV, Summers County, WV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
346 PM EDT SAT APR 14 2007

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...

.TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE TRACK OF THE SFC LOW
OVERNIGHT...AND HAVE BEEN FAIRLY CONSISTENT THE PAST FEW RUNS. THE
TRACK IS GENERALLY EASTWARD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS THROUGH
06Z...AND THEN A NORTHEASTWARD TURN ACROSS CENTRAL VA. THE GFS IS A
LITTLE SLOWER THAN THE NAM...BUT THE TRACKS ARE SIMILAR. MAIN
DIFFERENCE IN THE MODELS IS THE PLACEMENT OF THE HEAVIER PRECIP
ASSOCIATED WITH THE CONVECTION MOVING NORTHWARD AHEAD OF THE SFC
LOW. THE GFS KEEPS MOST OF IT SOUTH OF THE CWA IN CEN NC...WHILE THE
NAM BRINGS IT RIGHT ACROSS THE MTNS. WE ARE THINKING THAT THE GFS
SOLUTION IS PROBABLY CLOSER TO WHAT WILL HAPPEN...BUT THAT THE
CONVECTION AND HEAVIER RAIN HAS A GOOD CHANCE OF SPREADING FURTHER
NORTHWARD INTO THE FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT OF NW NC AND SW VA. THIS
LOOKS MORE LIKE THE CSTAR COOL SEASON CASE WHERE A SLOWLY
PROPAGATING BAND OF CONVECTION IS MOVING EAST WITH A STRONG LLJ
AHEAD OF IT...AND THAT GENERALLY BRINGS HEAVIER PRECIP NORTHWARD
INTO OUR AREA THAN MODELS FORECAST. THE WARM FRONT MAKES IT AS FAR
NORTH AS SOUTHSIDE VA...WITH STRONG LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FLUX AND
CONVERGENCE...AND MODELS SHOW PLENTY OF DYNAMICS AROUND 06Z. IN
ADDITIONALLY...PWATS ARE AROUND 1.5 INCHES AT 06Z...WHICH IS WELL OVER
200 PCT OF NORMAL. THERE ARE ENOUGH CONDITIONS THAT HEAVY RAIN IS A
REAL GOOD BET...SO WE WILL ISSUE A FLOOD WATCH FOR ALL OF OUR CWA
EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE OVERNIGHT.

RAIN SHOULD END SHORTLY AFTER DAYBREAK AS THE SFC LOW TRACKS OFF
SHORE AROUND NOON SUNDAY. MOST THE THE HEAVY RAIN SHOULD BE IN THE
OVERNIGHT PERIOD...SO THE FLOOD WATCH WILL JUST BE THROUGH 600 AM.
WRAPAROUND MOISTURE MOVES INTO THE MTNS IN THE AFTERNOON...AND BY
NIGHTFALL THERE IS ENOUGH COLD AIR THAT WE WILL BE SEEING SNOW IN
THE MTNS- ESPECIALLY HIGHER ELEVATIONS. THE PRECIP OVERNIGHT SHOULD
QUICKLY BECOME MAINLY WESTERN SLOPE SNOW SHOWERS...BUT WITH ENOUGH
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FOR ACCUMULATING SNOWS IN THE FAVORED WESTERN
SLOPE AREAS. CURRENT THINKING IS THAT THE AIR IS NOT COLD ENOUGH TO
PICK UP MOISTURE FROM THE GREAT LAKES THOUGH...SO IT DOES NOT LOOK
LIKE WE WILL BE SEEING A PROLONGED PERIOD OF HEAVY UPSLOPE SNOW
SHOWERS. IN ADDITION...IT IS LIKELY TO WARM ENOUGH DURING THE DAY
MONDAY SO THAT FURTHER ACCUMULATION WILL BE TOUGH...SO WE ARE
THINKING THAT MOST OF THE ACCUMULATION WILL OCCUR SUNDAY NIGHT. WE
HAVE 4 TO 6 INCHES IN WESTERN GREENBRIER COUNTY...3 TO 4 INCHES IN
THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS OF THE NC MTNS...AND GENERALLY 1 TO 2 INCHES
IN THE REST OF THE WESTERN SLOPES AREAS. THIS WOULD BE ENOUGH FOR AN
ADVISORY...ESPECIALLY CONSIDERING THE TIME OF YEAR...BUT SINCE IT IS
THE THIRD PERIOD AND WE ARE MORE CONCERNED WITH THE HEAVY RAIN
THREAT TONIGHT AND THE STRONG WINDS BEGINNING SUNDAY NIGHT WE WILL
WAIT ON ISSUING ANY WINTER WEATHER PRODUCTS.

OCCLUDED NOREASTER STILL HOVERING OFF THE NORTHEAST COAST. AS LONG
AS THIS SYSTEM REMAINS IN THIS AREA...WE WILL HAVE WINDY CONDITIONS
PERSISTING ACROSS THE AREA...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND WEST OF THE BLUE
RIDGE. NORTHWEST NORTH CAROLINA MOUNTAINS COULD HAVE SUSTAINED WINDS
OF 25 TO 40 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 70 MPH. THE NEW RIVER AND SOUTH
SHENANDOAH VALLEYS AND ALLEGHANY HIGHLANDS WILL ALSO BE WINDY WITH
SUSTAIN WINDS OF 20 TO 35 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 60 MPH. FOR THESE
AREAS...WE HAVE ISSUED A HIGH WIND WATCH SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. WE
HAVE ALSO ISSUED A HIGH WIND WATCH FOR THE FOOTHILLS OF SOUTHWEST
VIRGINIA AND NORTHWEST NORTH CAROLINA MOUNTAINS. THIS AREA WILL
LIKELY SEE WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA BUT WITH THE GROUND BEING
SATURATED...DOWN TREES AND POWER OUTAGES ARE POSSIBLE. OTHER AREAS
OUTSIDE THE WATCH COULD ALSO SEE DOWN TREES AND POWER OUTAGES BUT
WILL WAIT TO SEE IF LATER MODELS INCREASE WINDS OVER THE AREA AND
HOW MUCH RAIN THEY GET TONIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...

HOPEFULLY THIS NOREASTER WILL MOVE OUT TO SEA ON TUESDAY. THIS WILL
GIVE THE AREA A BRIEF BREAK FROM THE PRECIPITATION AND THE WIND. THE
NEXT SYSTEM TO BRING RAIN BACK INTO THE REGION WILL BE WEDNESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY. SINCE WE HAVE CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM...RELIED
HEAVILY ON HPCS FORECAST. THEIR DISCUSSION IS PROVIDED BELOW...

ALL GUIDANCE INDICATES FORMATION OF BRIEF OMEGA BLOCKING OVER THE US
DURING THE MEDIUM RANGE PD. THIS BLOCKING APPEARS TO GRADUALLY BREAK
DOWN BY 10 DAYS. HPC PROGS BASED ON 00Z ECMWF MASS FIELDS FOR
PRELIMS SINCE MODEL HAS SHOW BEST CONTINUITY AND TRACK RECORD SINCE
FLOW BECAME BLOCKY ACROSS THE NATION OVER A WEEK AGO. VORTEX
COMPRISING RIGHT ARM OF OMEGA WILL KEEP PERSISTENT NLY GRADIENT
ALONG ATL SEABOARD...WITH IMPLICATIONS FOR TIDES ON
OCEAN...RIVERS...AND BAYS.  MEAN RIDGE CENTERED OVER ERN PLAINS WILL
KEEP THAT REGION DRY FOR SOME TIME TO COME...WITH SEVERAL PAC
SYSTEMS PILING INTO LEFT ARM OF BLOCK OVER THE WRN HALF OF THE US
BRINGING UNSETTLED WEATHER THERE.  FRONTAL SYSTEM FORMING TO THE LEE
OF THE ROCKIES MID PD WILL BE SLOW TO DISLODGE...KEEPING FOCUS OVER
THE HIGH PLAINS FOR PCPN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...

RAINFALL OF 2 INCHES OR MORE IS LIKELY OVERNIGHT IN THE
FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT OF NORTHWEST NORTH CAROLINA AND SOUTHWEST
VIRGINIA. RAINFALL OF THIS AMOUNT WOULD CAUSE SOME SMALL STREAM
FLOODING...AND WOULD ALSO CAUSE AT LEAST MINOR FLOODING ALONG THE
DAN RIVER...WITH SIGNIFICANT WITHIN BANK RISES ON THE ROANOKE
RIVER AND THE JAMES RIVER. THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS
WITH VERY HEAVY RAINFALL TO MOVE INTO THE NORTHWEST PIEDMONT OF
NORTH CAROLINA AND SOUTH SIDE VA.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...HIGH WIND WATCH FROM SUNDAY EVENING THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON
     FOR VAZ009>020-022>024-032>035.

     FLOOD WATCH FROM 9 PM EDT THIS EVENING THROUGH LATE TONIGHT
     FOR VAZ032>035-043>047-058-059.

NC...HIGH WIND WATCH FROM SUNDAY EVENING THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON
     FOR NCZ001>003-018-019.

     FLOOD WATCH FROM 9 PM EDT THIS EVENING THROUGH LATE TONIGHT
     FOR NCZ003>006-019-020.

WV...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...JJ
LONG TERM...RCS
HYDROLOGY...JJ

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