Severe Thunderstorm Warning 190, NWS Charleston, WV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
315 PM EDT SAT AUG 25 2007

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT APPROACHES TONIGHT WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
POSSIBLE THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE
AREA ON WEDNESDAY OR THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM WILL DEVELOP AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT ACROSS
SOUTHEAST OH AND WEST VIRGINIA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HOT
TEMPERATURES...HIGH DEWPOINTS...AND THE OROGRAPHIC LIFT WILL BE
SUFFICIENT FOR STORM DEVELOPMENT SOME REACHING SEVERE CRITERIA.

THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS SOUTHEAST OH AROUND 00-03Z SPREADING
SLOWLY EAST TO BE OVER THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS BY SUN 12Z. GFS/NAM
HAVE BEEN SHOWING CONSISTENCY IN THE TIMING OF THIS FRONT. THE NAM
SHOWS LESS DEEP SHEAR (AROUND 30 KNOTS) THAN PREVIOUS RUNS MOVING
ALONG THE FRONT. CAPE VALUES OF ALL MODELS EXCEED 2000 J/KG AHEAD
AND ALONG THE BOUNDARY. MODELS SHOW DESCENT BL CONVERGENCE AS WELL.

THESE CONDITIONS...COMBINED WITH DRY MID LEVELS WILL BE ENOUGH FOR A
FEW DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.  SPC HAS THE WHOLE AREA UNDER A SLIGHT RISK
FOR TODAY.  H850 TEMPS BACK OFF A DEGREE OR TWO SO HIGHS SHOULD BE A
TOUCH LOWER TONIGHT.  WENT CLOSER TO THE LOWER MAV TONIGHT ACROSS
THE WEST AS DRIER COOLER AIR MAY FILTER IN BEHIND THE FRONT...AND A
BLEND OF FWC AND MET ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN SECTIONS. FOR HIGH
SUNDAY WENT WITH A BLEND OF THE FWC AND MAV.

RUNNING WITH CATEGORICAL POPS ACROSS THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL
SECTIONS THIS EVENING...THEN CHANCE POPS WILL MOVE EAST WITH THE
FRONT THRU SUNDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE
PERIOD...BUT SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN. THE MOISTURE MAY
BE ENOUGH IN THE MOUNTAINS TO PROVIDE A FEW AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS.
THEREFORE...WILL KEEP SLIGHT POPS IN THE MOUNTAINS DURING THE PEAK
HEATING TIMES.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH ON WEDNESDAY OR THURSDAY...PROVIDING
A GOOD CHANCE FOR SOME THUNDERSTORMS. SOME COOLER AND DRYER WEATHER
CAN BE EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED EARLY AFTERNOON WITH LOW CU DEVELOPING
LOWLANDS. SOME AFTERNOON CONVECTION CAN DEVELOP MAINLY NEAR
HTS...PKB...AND CRW THAT COULD PRODUCE MVFR/IFR VISIBILITIES ALONG
THUNDERSTORMS THRU SUN 00Z. STORMS CAN ALSO DEVELOP OVER THE
MOUNTAINS THIS AFTERNOON

MODELS HAS BEEN CONSISTENT WITH TIMING OF THE EXPECTED COLD FRONT
ENTERING SOUTHEAST OH AROUND 00-03Z TO AFFECT PKB WITH STRONG STORMS
CAPABLE TO PRODUCE DAMAGING GUSTY WINDS GREATER THAN 35 KNOTS. HTS
AND CRW COULD SEE SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY BUT EXPECTED TO BE LESS
INTENSE. STORM ACTIVITY COULD SPREAD EAST OVERNIGHT TO AFFECT CKB
WITH MVFR CONDITIONS EXCEPT IFR IF A STORM HIT THE SITE DIRECTLY.

THE FRONT WILL SLOWLY PROGRESS EAST TO BE OVER THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS
BY 12Z. AREAS OF FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER AREAS THAT RECEIVE RAIN
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. NOT SURE TO CODE DENSE FOG ATTM...AS A
LIGHT NORTH NORTHWEST BREEZE COULD SUPPRESS FOG FORMATION.

AVIATION OUTLOOK...SUNDAY NIGHT THRU WEDNESDAY...IFR OR WORSE FOG IN
SPOTS LIKELY SUNDAY NIGHT...MONDAY MORNING AND TUESDAY MORNINGS OVER
AREAS THAT RECEIVE RAIN.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...ARJ/RPY
NEAR TERM...ARJ
SHORT TERM...RPY
LONG TERM...RPY
AVIATION...ARJ

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
410 AM EDT SAT AUG 25 2007

KYZ101>103-105-OHZ066-067-075-076-083>087-WVZ005>011-013>020-027>032-
039-040-260815-
GREENUP-CARTER-BOYD-LAWRENCE KY-PERRY-MORGAN-ATHENS-WASHINGTON-
JACKSON OH-VINTON-MEIGS-GALLIA-LAWRENCE OH-WAYNE-CABELL-MASON-
JACKSON WV-WOOD-PLEASANTS-TYLER-LINCOLN-PUTNAM-KANAWHA-ROANE-WIRT-
CALHOUN-RITCHIE-DODDRIDGE-CLAY-BRAXTON-GILMER-LEWIS-HARRISON-TAYLOR-
UPSHUR-BARBOUR-
410 AM EDT SAT AUG 25 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST
KENTUCKY...SOUTHEAST OHIO AND WEST VIRGINIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM LATE AFTERNOON
THRUOGH TONIGHT. THE MAIN THREAT WILL BE FROM DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS...ALTHOUGH HAIL AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED LATE TODAY OR TONIGHT.

VAZ003-004-WVZ024>026-033>038-046-047-260815-
DICKENSON-BUCHANAN-MINGO-LOGAN-BOONE-MCDOWELL-WYOMING-RALEIGH-
FAYETTE-NICHOLAS-WEBSTER-POCAHONTAS-RANDOLPH-
410 AM EDT SAT AUG 25 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA AND WEST
VIRGINIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
437 PM EDT SAT AUG 25 2007

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0425 PM     TSTM WND DMG     ESE VANSANT             37.23N 82.09W
08/25/2007                   BUCHANAN           VA   COUNTY OFFICIAL

            TREES AND POWER LINES DOWN NEAR GARDEN CREEK IN THE
            OAKWOOD AREA.

&&

PG