Severe Thunderstorm Warning 168, NWS Charleston, WV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
824 PM EDT THU AUG 16 2007

.SYNOPSIS...
STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING...BEFORE COLD FRONT
MOVES SOUTH OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT.  HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS WITH COOLER
WEATHER INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
EARLY EVENING UPDATE...
STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS HAVE CONTINUED TO ERUPT ALONG OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY ALONG THE OHIO RIVER AND ACROSS CENTRAL WEST VIRGINIA. THIS
AREA OF CONVECTION WILL EXPAND TO THE NORTH AND SOUTH THIS EVENING
AS IT SHIFTS EASTWARD AHEAD OF MAIN SHORT WAVE DROPPING SOUTH AND
EAST THROUGH INDIANA THIS EVENING. WHILE THE SEVERITY OF STORMS WILL
DIMINISH BY AROUND 03Z WITH THE EXPIRATION OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
WATCHES OVER THE SOUTHERN TWO THIRDS OF OUR AREA...CONVECTION WILL
CONTINUE UNTIL THE SHORT WAVE PASSES...WITH SEVERE EVOLVING LOCALLY
INTO A WATER ISSUE IN THOSE AREAS HEAVIEST HIT. HAVE UPPED POPS AGAIN
EVERYWHERE...WITH MENTION OF SEVERE EARLY THIS EVENING.

ONCE WAVE PASSES...SURFACE FRONT SLIPS TO SOUTHERNMOST CWA BY 12Z
FRIDAY. DRY AIR AND SUNSHINE TAKES OVER AFTER SOME MORNING SHOWERS
IN THE SOUTH. COMPARED TO TODAY...ABOUT TEN DEGREES COOLER FOR HIGHS
FRIDAY...WHICH IS STILL UPPER 80S/NEAR 90 IN THE LOWLANDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES IN ON SATURDAY AND SLOWLY MOVES EAST DURING
THE DAY. THIS AIR MASS LOOKS VERY DRY SO HAVE LOWERED THE SKY
COVER AND ALSO REDUCED ANY MENTION OF POPS FOR SAT NIGHT AS THE
WARM FRONT TRIES TO REORGANIZE TO THE NORTHERN PART OF THE AREA.
WHILE SOME SHORTWAVE ENERGY TRIES TO DIVE SE ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES INTO PA...NOT EXPECTING THAT THIS WILL AFFECT THE REGION AS
IT IS TOO FAR NORTH AND WITH THE DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE THE MOISTURE
SHOULD BE VERY LIMITED. TEMPERATURES ARE A LITTLE TRICKY AT THIS
POINT AS THE 850 TEMPERATURE GRADIENT IS VERY TIGHT AND COULD LEAD
TO SOME LARGER DIFFERENCES BETWEEN SITES THAN NORMAL. HAVE HELD ON
TO SLIGHTLY WARM VALUES IN THE SOUTH LEANING MORE TOWARD THE WARM
FWC AND MET...BUT ACROSS THE NORTH...WHERE THE COOLER AIR SHOULD
BE IN PLACE...LEANED MORE TOWARD THE MAV/MET NUMBERS.

ON SUNDAY...THE MODELS HAVE CHANGED COURSE A BIT AS THE HEIGHTS
BEGIN TO BUILD BACK INTO THE AREA AND THE UPPER RIDGE SLIDES EAST
OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN US. THIS WILL HELP THE WARM FRONT DEVELOP
ACROSS NCENTRAL OHIO AND SRN PA. HAVE LEFT A TIGHT GRADIENT OF
POPS ACROSS THE NORTH NEAR THE FRONT...BUT WENT LOWER ON THE POPS
ACROSS THE SOUTH. WILL HAVE TO WATCH THE NW FLOW ALOFT AS IT COULD
HELP PUSH THE SHOWERS FURTHER SOUTH ON SUNDAY...SHOULD THE FLOW
TURN MORE. WITH THE HEIGHTS BUILDING...THE WARMER TEMPERATURES
SHOULD BEGIN TO RETURN. HAVE STARTED TO PUSH VALUES UP...A TOUCH
ABOVE THE 12Z MEX.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
OVERALL...THE EXTENDED RANGE MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT SHOWING
THE RIDGING OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY CONTINUING THROUGH
THE PERIOD.  OVER THE OHIO VALLEY...THE TROUGH THAT DIVES SOUTHWARD
FOR THE WEEKEND...GRADUALLY PULLS OUT AND THE HEIGHTS AGAIN BUILD
TOWARD MID WEEK WITH A RETURN TO THE WARMER CONDITIONS EXPECTED.
HPCS PATTERN WAS ALONG THIS LINE SO HAVE GENERALLY FOLLOWED THIS
SCENARIO.

FOR MONDAY...AS THE UPPER TROUGH PULLS AWAY...A WARM FRONT SLIDES
SLOWLY NORTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION AND COULD BE A FOCUS FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS AS THE MOISTURE BUILDS.  WILL NEED TO WATCH FOR
THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME STRONGER STORMS AS THE FLOW ALOFT IS
NORTHWEST...WHICH OFTEN HELPS TO AID THE STORM DEVELOPMENT.  WITH
MORE CLOUDS AROUND...HELD TEMPERATURES DOWN A TOUCH IN THE MID TO
UPPER 80S...BUT IT COULD BE A TOUCH COOLER IN THE NORTH...DEPENDING
UPON WHERE THE RAIN SHIELD WITH THE ISENTROPIC LIFT SETS UP.

ON TUESDAY...THE WARM FRONT BEGINS TO LIFT AWAY FROM THE AREA SO
GRADUALLY ALLOW THE POPS TO LESSEN DURING THE DAY AND ALSO BEGIN TO
RAISE TEMPERATURES.  ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...THE UPPER RIDGE
PUSHES INTO THE AREA...AND THE SOUTHWEST FLOW AT THE SURFACE SHOULD
ALLOW THE HEAT TO BUILD.  HAVE RAISED TEMPERATURES A TOUCH FROM THE
MEX AND HPC GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS AS THE HEAT SHOULD BE BUILDING.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
EARLY EVENING UPDATE....
STRONG SHORT WAVE CROSSING AREA EARLY TONIGHT WITH CONCENTRATED AREA
OF THUNDERSTORMS EXPANDING INTO MOST OF OUR AREA THIS EVENING.
GENERALLY VFR BECOMING MVFR TO LOCALLY IFR IN THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX.
CONDITIONS IMPROVING FROM WEST TO EAST AFTER 04Z BEHIND THE SHORT
WAVE AND ASSOCIATED COOL FRONT...BUT THEN EXPECT MVFR TO IFR IN FOG
FORMING AFTER THE RAIN. AFTER 13Z BECOMING VFR WITH SCT-BKN CU.
AVIATION OUTLOOK...18Z FRI-TUE...EACH LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING
COULD YIELD IFR VALLEY FOG...ESPECIALLY KEKN /IFR OR WORSE/.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...JMV
NEAR TERM...JMV
SHORT TERM...ESS
LONG TERM...ESS
AVIATION...JMV

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
436 AM EDT THU AUG 16 2007

KYZ101>103-105-OHZ066-067-075-076-083>087-VAZ003-004-WVZ005>011-
013>020-024>040-046-047-170845-
GREENUP-CARTER-BOYD-LAWRENCE KY-PERRY-MORGAN-ATHENS-WASHINGTON-
JACKSON OH-VINTON-MEIGS-GALLIA-LAWRENCE OH-DICKENSON-BUCHANAN-WAYNE-
CABELL-MASON-JACKSON WV-WOOD-PLEASANTS-TYLER-LINCOLN-PUTNAM-KANAWHA-
ROANE-WIRT-CALHOUN-RITCHIE-DODDRIDGE-MINGO-LOGAN-BOONE-CLAY-BRAXTON-
GILMER-LEWIS-HARRISON-TAYLOR-MCDOWELL-WYOMING-RALEIGH-FAYETTE-
NICHOLAS-WEBSTER-UPSHUR-BARBOUR-POCAHONTAS-RANDOLPH-
436 AM EDT THU AUG 16 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST
KENTUCKY...SOUTHEAST OHIO...SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA AND WEST VIRGINIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE ENTIRE
AREA TODAY THROUGH THIS EVENING. THE MAIN THREAT WILL BE DAMAGING
WINDS AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
756 PM EDT THU AUG 16 2007

WVZ028-029-038-170030-
WEBSTER WV-BRAXTON WV-GILMER WV-
756 PM EDT THU AUG 16 2007

HERE IS A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE...

AT 756 PM EDT...A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS EXTENDED FROM 13
MILES SOUTHWEST OF GLENVILLE TO 14 MILES NORTHEAST OF
RICHWOOD...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 25 MPH.

SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL BE AFFECTED BY THIS LINE OF STORMS
  INCLUDE... CENTRALIA...EXCHANGE...FALLS MILLS...HEATERS...BALDWIN
  AND NEWBERNE.

WIND GUSTS TO 45 MPH...FREQUENT LIGHTNING...AND PEA SIZE HAIL ARE
ALL POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS.

PLEASE REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BY
CALLING TOLL FREE...877-633-6772...WHEN YOU CAN DO SO SAFELY.

13

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WEST VIRGINIA
801 PM EDT THU AUG 16 2007

..TIME...   ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION...ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0758 PM     HAIL             BUFFALO                 38.61N 81.90W
08/16/2007  U0.88 INCH       PUTNAM             WV   PUBLIC

            EVENT OCCURRED BETWEEN
            743 PM 08/16/2007 AND 758 PM 08/16/2007

&&

NNNN

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
803 PM EDT THU AUG 16 2007

OHZ085-086-WVZ007-008-016-170030-
MEIGS OH-GALLIA OH-ROANE WV-MASON WV-JACKSON WV-
803 PM EDT THU AUG 16 2007

HERE IS A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE...

AT 803 PM EDT...A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS EXTENDED FROM 6 MILES
SOUTHWEST OF RUTLAND TO 20 MILES SOUTHWEST OF SPENCER...OR FROM 6
MILES SOUTHWEST OF RUTLAND TO 7 MILES NORTHEAST OF SISSONVILLE...
MOVING NORTHEAST AT 25 MPH.

SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL BE AFFECTED BY THIS LINE OF STORMS
  INCLUDE... LEFT HAND...LOONEYVILLE...TARIFF...HARMONY...STATTS
  MILLS AND GAY.

WIND GUSTS TO 45 MPH...FREQUENT LIGHTNING...AND PEA SIZE
HAIL ARE ALL POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

PLEASE REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BY
CALLING TOLL FREE...877-633-6772...WHEN YOU CAN DO SO SAFELY.

13

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WEST VIRGINIA
804 PM EDT THU AUG 16 2007

..TIME...   ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION...ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0801 PM     TSTM WND DMG     POINT PLEASANT          38.87N 82.08W
08/16/2007                   MASON              WV   PUBLIC

            LARGE BRANCHES BROKEN.
            EVENT OCCURRED BETWEEN
            746 PM 08/16/2007 AND 801 PM 08/16/2007

&&

NNNN

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
806 PM EDT THU AUG 16 2007

WVZ028>030-038-039-046-047-170045-
POCAHONTAS WV-WEBSTER WV-BRAXTON WV-GILMER WV-UPSHUR WV-RANDOLPH
WV-LEWIS WV-
806 PM EDT THU AUG 16 2007

HERE IS A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE...

AT 806 PM EDT...A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS EXTENDED FROM 14
MILES SOUTH OF GLENVILLE TO 21 MILES NORTHEAST OF RICHWOOD...MOVING
NORTHEAST AT 25 MPH.

SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL BE AFFECTED BY THIS LINE OF STORMS
INCLUDE... HORNER...WALKERSVILLE...IRELAND...CAMDEN...ALUM BRIDGE
AND CENTRALIA.

WIND GUSTS TO 45 MPH...FREQUENT LIGHTNING...AND PEA SIZE
HAIL ARE ALL POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

PLEASE REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BY
CALLING TOLL FREE...877-633-6772...WHEN YOU CAN DO SO SAFELY.

13

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