Severe Thunderstorm Warning 132, NWS Charleston, WV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
820 PM EDT THU JUL 26 2007

.SYNOPSIS...
UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL WEAKEN AS IT MOVES MOVES
EAST BY SATURDAY.  HOWEVER...AN UPPER TROUGH WILL REMAIN ALONG THE
EAST COAST INTO NEXT WEEK.  A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
LATEST RADAR DATA AND SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE MOUNTAINS AS WELL AS SOME SHOWERS OVER
SOUTHEAST OHIO.  THIS CONVECTION IS THE RESULT OF DAYTIME HEATING
AND A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROF MOVING SOUTHEAST INTO WESTERN OHIO.

THIS FEATURE SHOULD CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE NIGHTTIME
HOURS TONIGHT.  WHILE THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BEGIN TO STABILIZE AFTER
SUNSET...UPWARD VERTICAL MOTIONS ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROF WILL
CONTINUE A CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE NIGHT-TIME HOURS.

IN ADDITION...LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AND LIGHT WINDS WILL ONCE AGAIN
RESULT IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF FOG...ESPECIALLY IN THE RIVER VALLEYS
AND WHERE RAIN OCCURS.

MODELS SUGGEST ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROF WILL APPROACH THE AREA LATE
FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT.  AS A RESULT...HAVE CONTINUED CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS INTO EARLY FRIDAY NIGHT.  BELIEVE LIKELY POPS ARE
APPROPRIATE AS MID-LEVEL TROF GETS CLOSER.

BELIEVE MAV TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE IS TOO WARM FOR HIGHS ON FRIDAY.
OTHERWISE...PREVIOUS TEMPERATURE GRIDS LOOKED GOOD AND HAVE
GENERALLY ONLY MADE SOME MINOR TWEAKS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
WE WILL STILL BE IN A MOIST...UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT ON SATURDAY AHEAD
OF ADVANCING LOW PRESSURE. HAVE INCREASED POPS TO LIKELY CATEGORY AS
LOW PRESSURE TRAVELS ACROSS REGION. CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW SEVERE
STORMS IN THE MOUNTAINS SATURDAY AFTERNOON. FRONT GRUDGINGLY MOVES
THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...THE GFS LOOKS BETTER THAN THE
NAM HERE. 500MB TROUGH DEEPENS AS IT REACHES THE ATLANTIC
SEABOARD...CONSEQUENTLY THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BE SLOW TO
CLEAR OUR AREA...AS A RESULT LEFT AT LEAST CHANCE POPS IN EASTERN
MOUNTAINS INTO MONDAY.

DID NOT STRAY TOO FAR FROM MOS VALUES FOR TEMPERATURES.  TENDED TO
LEAN A LITTLE COOLER DURING THE DAY SATURDAY WITH WET GROUND/CLOUD
COVER.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
WITH THE LOW SETTLING OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST...MODELS TRY TO SHOW
DRYING THROUGH THE COLUMN IN THE NORTHWESTERN ZONES. COULD NOT
ELIMINATE POPS IN THE NORTHEASTERN MOUNTAINS DUE TO THE PROXIMITY OF
THE TROUGH AXIS EVEN INTO MONDAY NIGHT. OTHERWISE...MOST OF THE AREA
LOOKS TO BE DRY IN THE LONG TERM...WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES
CONTINUING THROUGH THE PERIODS AS A RESULT OF PERSISTENT CLOUD COVER.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL LOW IS STILL IMPACTING THE REGION.  ONE LAST SHORTWAVE
IS DROPPING INTO THE BASE OF THE TROUGH...WHICH IS CAUSING A LINE OF
STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TO FORM.  THUS HAVE ADDED TSTORMS TO
ALL BUT PKB.  THE LINE IS NEAR CRW AS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ENE.  IT
COULD IMPACT CKB/EKN/BKW AFTER 2Z.  ONCE THIS CONVECTION EXITS THE
REGION AFTER 4Z...WEATHER SHOULD SETTLE DOWN.  FOG WILL THEN BECOME
A POTENTIAL ISSUE AS SOME CLEARING COMBINED WITH THE WET GROUND WILL
PRODUCE MVFR TO IFR FOG.  HAVE ADDED THE FOG TO ALL SITES.  THE
CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO MOVE IN AGAIN FROM THE WEST...WHICH SHOULD HELP
BRING THE FOG UP A LITTLE EARLIER IN THE MORNING.  SOME SHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE WITH THIS NEXT SHORTWAVE...BUT FOR NOW...THE CHANCES ARE
SMALL SO HAVE NOT INCLUDED IN THE FORECAST.

DURING THE DAY TOMORROW...EXPECT MORE MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS
AROUND THE AREA.  A STRONG SHORTWAVE WILL ENTER THE REGION DURING
THE AFTERNOON SO MORE CONVECTION IS EXPECTED.

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...
THUNDERSTORMS MAY STILL RESULT IN TEMPORARY MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS EACH
AFTERNOON AND EVENING THROUGH THE WEEKEND.  IN ADDITION...FOG MAY
RESULT IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS EACH NIGHT THROUGH
THE PERIOD.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...JSH
NEAR TERM...JSH
SHORT TERM...DB
LONG TERM...DB
AVIATION...ESS

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
407 AM EDT THU JUL 26 2007

KYZ101>103-105-OHZ066-067-075-076-083>087-VAZ003-004-WVZ005>010-
013>017-019-024>026-270815-
GREENUP-CARTER-BOYD-LAWRENCE KY-PERRY-MORGAN-ATHENS-WASHINGTON-
JACKSON OH-VINTON-MEIGS-GALLIA-LAWRENCE OH-DICKENSON-BUCHANAN-WAYNE-
CABELL-MASON-JACKSON WV-WOOD-PLEASANTS-LINCOLN-PUTNAM-KANAWHA-ROANE-
WIRT-RITCHIE-MINGO-LOGAN-BOONE-
407 AM EDT THU JUL 26 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST
KENTUCKY...SOUTHEAST OHIO...SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA AND WEST VIRGINIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. THE MAIN THREATS WILL BE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

WVZ011-018-020-027>040-046-047-270815-
TYLER-CALHOUN-DODDRIDGE-CLAY-BRAXTON-GILMER-LEWIS-HARRISON-TAYLOR-
MCDOWELL-WYOMING-RALEIGH-FAYETTE-NICHOLAS-WEBSTER-UPSHUR-BARBOUR-
POCAHONTAS-RANDOLPH-
407 AM EDT THU JUL 26 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WEST VIRGINIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
916 PM EDT THU JUL 26 2007

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0835 PM     TSTM WND DMG     KERMIT                  37.84N 82.41W
07/26/2007                   MINGO              WV   EMERGENCY MNGR

            TREES DOWN AT MAR BONE.

&&

PG

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
930 PM EDT THU JUL 26 2007

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0914 PM     TSTM WND DMG     WALTON                  38.63N 81.40W
07/26/2007                   ROANE              WV   COUNTY OFFICIAL

            TREES DOWN ON LONG RIDGE NEAR WALTON.

&&

PG

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
949 PM EDT THU JUL 26 2007

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0857 PM     TSTM WND DMG     7 WNW CLAY              38.50N 81.20W
07/26/2007                   CLAY               WV   COUNTY OFFICIAL

            TREES DOWNNEAR PROCIOUS.

0825 PM     TSTM WND DMG     CLAY                    38.46N 81.08W
07/26/2007                   CLAY               WV   COUNTY OFFICIAL

            TREES DOWN ROUTE 4 AND 16. TREES DOWN AT ELKHURST ROAD
            NEAR HARTLAND.

&&

PG

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WEST VIRGINIA
1007 PM EDT THU JUL 26 2007

..TIME...   ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION...ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1004 PM     HAIL             SIMON                   37.63N 81.77W
07/26/2007  U0.88 INCH       WYOMING            WV   PUBLIC

            EVENT OCCURRED BETWEEN
            949 PM 07/26/2007 AND 1004 PM 07/26/2007

&&

NNNN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WEST VIRGINIA
1013 PM EDT THU JUL 26 2007

..TIME...   ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION...ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1006 PM     TSTM WND DMG     OAK HILL                37.98N 81.10W
07/26/2007                   FAYETTE            WV   PUBLIC

            LARGE BRANCHES BROKEN.
            EVENT OCCURRED BETWEEN
            951 PM 07/26/2007 AND 1006 PM 07/26/2007

&&

NNNN

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