Flood Watch 3, NWS Charleston, WV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
753 PM EDT WED MAR 14 2007

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT CROSSES THURSDAY USHERING IN COLDER WEATHER...WITH A
TASTE OF WINTER BY THE WEEKEND. COLD AIR DOESNT LAST LONG AS A
WARMUP IS FORECAST EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MRNG RA HAS MOVED OUT OF THE AREA AND CWA IS UNDER A BKN CU FIELD
ATT.  TEMPS REBOUNDING NICELY WITH LWR 70S IN THE TRI STATE.  DRY
FCST CONTS TO LOOK GOOD FOR MOST OF THE FCST AREA TNGT.  TRW ARE
MVNG NE ACR SRN IND AND SHOULD REACH SERN OH BY MID EVNG...WHILE TCU
ARE BUILDING IN AN UNSTABLE ATMS ACR ERN KY...SO WL BE WATCHING
THESE RW AS THEY HEAD TWRD WRN WV.  A BUILDING MID LVL RDG SHOULD
PROTECT MOST OF WV TNGT.

CHALLENGING FCST FOR THUR AS NCEP MDLS ARE HAVING A TOUGH TIME
RESOLVING FROPA.  GFS/SREF WERE THE CHOSEN SLTNS THIS CYCLE...SO THE
FRONT REACHES THE OH RVR ARND 11Z/I-79 15Z/ MTNS 16Z.  LTL ACTIVITY
IS FORESEEN IN THE WARM SECTOR SINCE THIS FRONT IS MORE ANAFRONT IN
STRUCTURE.  POPS WERE RAISED TO CAT ALONG AND BEHIND THE FRONT
THUR.  HIGHS WL BE REACHED IN THE W ARND DAWN WITH A FALLING TREND
THE BALANCE OF THE DAY.  SAME GOES FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
LLNDS...SAVE FOR TEMPS WL BE FALLING IN THE AFTN. THE MTNS WL BE THE
WARMEST OF ALL TMRW.
&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
A WEAK LOW PRESSURE AND ITS ASSOCIATED FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BE SOUTH
AND SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA BY 00Z FRI. HOWEVER...ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE AND THE PASSAGE OF AN UPPER WAVE WILL PRODUCE ADDITIONAL
RAIN SHOWERS FOLLOWED BY DRIZZLE THU NIGHT AND FRI. MODELS IN
AGREEMENT WITH COLD H8 AIR MASS RUSHING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST TO
ABOUT MINUS 8 DEG CELSIUS BY FRI EVENING . THESE TEMPERATURES AND
THE NORTHWEST FLOW WILL PRODUCE RAIN CHANGING TO SNOW SHOWERS AIDED
BY AN UPSLOPE COMPONENT OVER THE NORTHEAST MOUNTAINS...POCAHONTAS
AND RANDOLPH COUNTIES FRI NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY. HPC SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS AND MODELS GUIDANCE SUGGEST FROM 1 TO 2 INCHES OF SNOW
POSSIBLE BY 12Z SAT OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS NORTHEAST MOUNTAINS.
&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
WINTER MAKES AN ENCORE APPEARANCE FOR THE WEEKEND.

TRIED TO HOLD ONTO POPS SATURDAY LONGER WITH MAJOR TROF AXIS AND
COLD MINUS 10 850 AIR PASSING.  CONSIDERING THE TIME OF THE
YEAR...STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS MAY BE MORE CELLULAR THAN SOLID
OVERCAST. STILL HAVE CLEARING SATURDAY NIGHT WITH DRY WX SUNDAY.
WARM FRONTAL ACTION STILL FIGURED FOR SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
MONDAY.  WENT WITH HPC MEDIUM RANGE WITH SOME POPS NOW WITH THIS
FEATURE SUNDAY NIGHT.

NO MAJOR CHANGES FROM HPC GUIDANCE FOR DAYS 5-7. WARM UP SHOULD
BE MAIN THEME FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
EXPECT AVIATION CONCERNS TO WIND DOWN BY 02Z AND RETURN TO VFR AS
DAYTIME HEATING...THE SPARK FOR THE AREA/S ACTIVITY...SUBSIDES.
LINE OF SHOWERS WILL TRAVERSE TO THE ENE INTO THE NORTHERN PORTION
OF WEST VIRGINIA...AND A FEW SHOWERS MAY LINGER NEAR HTS. COLD
FRONT MOVING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST WILL BRING SHOWERS AGAIN BY
MORNING ALONG THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY AND PROGRESS SOUTHWARD TO BKW
BY THE END OF THE DAY. WILL REMAIN CONSERVATIVE WITH THE LATTER
HALF OF THE FORECAST PERIOD AND KEEP ALL TAF SITES IN MVFR WITH
THE APPROACH OF THE BOUNDARY...HOWEVER TEMPOS MAY NEED TO BE ADDED
FOR IFR. EXPECT A WIND SHIFT TO A MORE NORTHERLY DIRECTION IN THE
WAKE OF THIS COLD FRONT AS IT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION DURING THE
DAY THURSDAY.

AVIATION OUTLOOK...

SHORT TERM/ IFR POSSIBLE IN CEILING AND VSBY THU AFTERNOON INTO
FRIDAY NIGHT.
LONG TERM/ NO SIG WX XPCTD

 &&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...26

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
625 PM EDT WED MAR 14 2007

KYZ101>103-105-OHZ066-067-075-076-083>087-VAZ003-004-WVZ005>011-
013>020-024>040-046-047-152230-
GREENUP-CARTER-BOYD-LAWRENCE-PERRY-MORGAN-ATHENS-WASHINGTON-JACKSON-
VINTON-MEIGS-GALLIA-DICKENSON-BUCHANAN-WAYNE-CABELL-MASON-WOOD-
PLEASANTS-TYLER-LINCOLN-PUTNAM-KANAWHA-ROANE-WIRT-CALHOUN-RITCHIE-
DODDRIDGE-MINGO-LOGAN-BOONE-CLAY-BRAXTON-GILMER-LEWIS-HARRISON-
TAYLOR-MCDOWELL-WYOMING-RALEIGH-FAYETTE-NICHOLAS-WEBSTER-UPSHUR-
BARBOUR-POCAHONTAS-RANDOLPH-
625 PM EDT WED MAR 14 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR KENTUCKY...OH...SOUTHEAST
OHIO...VIRGINIA AND WEST VIRGINIA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING SOUTH OF A COLD FRONT...ASSOCIATED WITH
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE CAN PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS AND HAIL. SOME
OF THESE STORMS MAY BECOME SEVERE THROUGH THE EVENING
HOURS...ESPECIALLY THROUGH SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL WEST VIRGINIA. THE
STORMS WILL DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET TONIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
706 PM EDT WED MAR 14 2007

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0655 PM     HAIL             4 NNW SCOTTOWN          38.60N 82.40W
03/14/2007  E1.00 INCH       LAWRENCE           OH   EMERGENCY MNGR

&&

MATTAROCHIA

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
748 PM EDT WED MAR 14 2007

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0740 PM     HAIL             ARNOLDSBURG             38.79N 81.13W
03/14/2007  E1.00 INCH       CALHOUN            WV   EMERGENCY MNGR

&&

MATTAROCHIA

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
813 PM EDT WED MAR 14 2007

WVZ028-030-039-150100-
BRAXTON WV-UPSHUR WV-LEWIS WV-
813 PM EDT WED MAR 14 2007

HERE IS A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE BRAXTON...UPSHUR...AND LEWIS COUNTIES UNTIL 9 PM...

AT 813 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM OVER EAST CENTRAL BRAXTON COUNTY...OR ABOUT 19
MILES SOUTH OF WESTON...MOVING EAST AT 30 MPH.  THE STORM WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIP OF LEWIS COUNTY BEFORE ENTERING UPSHUR
COUNTY.

SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL BE AFFECTED BY THIS STORM INCLUDE IRELAND...
  FALLS MILLS...TALLMANSVILLE...KANAWHA HEAD...ALEXANDER AND FRENCH
  CREEK.

WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH AND SMALL HAIL ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM. IN
ADDITION...LOCALIZED HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL OCCUR ALONG ITS PATH.

PLEASE REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BY
CALLING TOLL FREE...877-633-6772...WHEN YOU CAN DO SO SAFELY.

08

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