Severe Thunderstorm Warning 31, NWS Riverton, WY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RIVERTON WY
320 PM MDT THU JUL 19 2007

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE ALOFT REMAINS STALLED OVER
THE AREA WITH MONSOON MOISTURE OVER THE AREA.  THE MOISTURE
IS MORE ABUNDANT OVER THE SOUTH AND EAST WITH THE LEAST MOISTURE
OVER THE NORTHWEST.  AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO BE A THREAT WITH THE GREATEST
COVERAGE OVER THE MOUNTAINOUS AREAS.  LITTLE CHANGE IN TEMPERATES
AND RELATIVE HUMIDITY ARE EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY.  SHORT TERM
MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH STAGNANT WEATHER PATTERN.
OVERALL SHORT TERM FORECAST SIGNIFICANT WEATHER WILL BE SMALL
SCALE LOCAL CONVECTION. LOCAL HEAVY RAINS WILL REMAIN A THREAT IN
AND NEAR THE MOUNTAINS WITH SLOW MOVING TO NEAR STATIONARY
THUNDERSTORMS.

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
MODELS ARE VERY SIMILAR IN THEIR MOVEMENT OF THE UPPER HIGH
THROUGH THE MEDIUM RANGE PERIOD. THE UPPER HIGH IS FORECAST BY THE
GFS...UKMET AND ECMWF TO MOVE FROM THE CENTRAL ROCKIES/WESTERN
HIGH PLAINS SUNDAY INTO THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS/UPPER MIDWEST
AREA MONDAY INTO TUESDAY AND THEN FLATTEN OR RETROGRADE BACK INTO
THE CENTRAL ROCKIES WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. AS THE UPPER HIGH
MOVES EAST OF WYOMING EARLY NEXT WEEK...IT SHOULD OPEN THE DOOR
FOR MID AND HIGH LEVEL MONSOONAL MOISTURE TO FLOW NWD THROUGH THE
PERIOD SETTING THE STAGE FOR PLENTY OF DAILY THUNDERSTORMS WITH
THE PEAK OCCURRING DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. WILL
CONTINUE TO BUMP THE POPS UP DURING THIS PERIOD IF THIS TREND
CONTINUES AGAIN TONIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE TONIGHT AND FRIDAY. THE BEST
COVERAGE AND STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS EAST
CENTRAL WYOMING THIS EVENING AFFECTING CPR AND WRL ROUTES WITH
POSSIBLE MVFR CONDITIONS IN BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS. DRIER AND MORE
STABLE AIR WILL PUSH AGAINST THE WEST SIDE OF THE DIVIDE WITH
ISOLATED STORMS PRIMARILY DEVELOPING ALONG THE EAST SLOPES AND
SOUTHWEST WYOMING IN THE VICINITY OF COD...LND AND RKS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE ALOFT REMAINS STALLED OVER
THE AREA WITH MONSOON MOISTURE OVER THE AREA.  THE MOISTURE
IS MORE ABUNDANT OVER THE SOUTH AND EAST WITH THE LEAST MOISTURE
OVER THE NORTHWEST.  AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO BE A THREAT WITH THE GREATEST
COVERAGE OVER THE MOUNTAINOUS AREAS.  LITTLE CHANGE IN TEMPERATES
AND RELATIVE HUMIDITY ARE EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.RIW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

SHORT TERM...C.BAKER
LONG TERM...SKRBAC
AVIATION...SMITH
FIRE WEATHER...C.BAKER

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RIVERTON WY
317 PM MDT THU JUL 19 2007

WYZ020-022-192200-
CASPER MOUNTAIN-NATRONA COUNTY LOWER ELEVATIONS-
317 PM MDT THU JUL 19 2007

SIGNIFICANT THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL BE MOVING WEST INTO THE
EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CASPER METRO AREA THROUGH 345 PM. ALSO...
ANOTHER AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE TRACKING NORTHEAST ALONG
HIGHWAY 220 ACROSS INDEPENDENCE ROCK AND ALCOVA THROUGH 400 PM..
YET A THIRD CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE TRACKING NORTHEAST
ACROSS WEST CENTRAL NATRONA COUNTY AND WILL TRACK ACROSS HIGHWAY 26
NEAR HIGHLAND THROUGH 400 PM. THESE STORMS MAY PRODUCE SMALL
HAIL...WIND GUSTS OF 45 MPH AND FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING.

LIPSON

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RIVERTON WY
228 PM MDT THU JUL 19 2007

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0202 PM     HAIL             16 W BUFFALO            44.34N 107.04W
07/19/2007  E0.88 INCH       JOHNSON            WY   PUBLIC

            HAIL WAS ACCOMPANIED BY VERY HEAVY RAIN.

&&

DLIPSON