High Wind Watch 6, NWS Riverton, WY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RIVERTON WY
343 PM MDT WED JUN 6 2007

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
POWERFUL COMPLEX UPPER LOW CROSSING THE ROCKIES THIS AFTERNOON
WITH MAIN UPPER LOW REFORMING ON THE LEE SIDE OVER CENTRAL
WYOMING. ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW ORGANIZING OVER WESTERN
NEBRASKA/SOUTH DAKOTA WITH SECONDARY LOW JUST NORTH OF RIVERTON.
ORGANIZED THUNDERSTORMS MOVING NORTH OF THIS TROUGH AXIS ACROSS
THE NORTHERN BIG HORN BASIN AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 90 IN
NORTHEAST WYOMING WITH MORE ISOLATED ACTIVITY TO THE SOUTH WERE A
DRY SOUTHERLY FLOW PREVAILS. UPPER LOW TO DRIFT NE
TONIGHT...DEEPEN AND BECOME MORE STACKED OVER WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA
BY 12Z THURSDAY. STORM TRACK WILL KEEP WRAPAROUND MOISTURE ACROSS
NORTHERN WYOMING OVERNIGHT WITH SNOW LEVELS LOWERING TO 6500 TO
7000 FEET ACROSS THE WEST THIS EVENING AND IN THE BIG HORN
MOUNTAINS AFTER 12Z THURSDAY. FAVORABLE N-NW FLOW AND PLENTIFUL
MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO BRING 6 TO 10 INCHES OF SNOWFALL OVERNIGHT
TO THE TETON RANGE...HIGHER PEAKS OF YELLOWSTONE PARK AND ABSAROKA
MOUNTAINS. THE HEAVIEST SNOW FALL IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN THE
BIG HORN MOUNTAINS BETWEEN 9Z-15Z THURSDAY AS FLOW TURNS MORE
NORTHERLY ON BACKSIDE OF UPPER LOW WITH 6 TO 10 INCHES OF SNOWFALL
EXPECTED ABOVE 8000 FEET AND MOSTLY NORTH OF HIGHWAY 16.
INTENSIFYING UPPER LOW OVER THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS WILL ALSO
CAUSE A TIGHTENING SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT OVERNIGHT AND
THURSDAY MORNING WITH FAVORABLE SETUP FOR POSSIBLE HIGH WIND EVENT
IN NORTHEAST JOHNSON COUNTY. NAM TIME HEIGHT FOR BYG HAS 50 KNOT
WINDS DOWN TO 750 MB BY 15Z THURSDAY WHEN STRONGEST WIND AT THE
SURFACE SHOULD OCCUR. UPPER LOW QUICKLY LIFTS NE ACROSS NORTHERN
PLAINS THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND PRESSURE GRADIENT CORRESPONDINGLY
QUICKLY RELAXES. BOTH MODELS LATCHING ONTO IDEA OF BRINGING IN
DRIER AIR INTO NORTHEAST WYOMING THURSDAY AFTERNOON BEHIND
DEPARTING SYSTEM WITH A POOLING OF MOISTURE ACROSS SOUTH AND
NORTHERLY UPSLOPE FAVORED AREAS IN EAST CENTRAL WYOMING...AREAS
TARGETED FOR THE HIGHEST CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION THURSDAY
AFTERNOON. WINDS LIGHTEN SIGNIFICANTLY THURSDAY EVENING AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN WITH WEAK LEE TROUGH SETTING UP BY FRIDAY.
MODELS DIFFER SUBSTANTIALLY ON HANDLING OF ENERGY COMING DOWN BACK
SIDE OF MAIN TROUGH OFF THE COAST OF OREGON THIS AFTERNOON WITH
GFS SPLITTING ENERGY AND BRING A PIECE ACROSS WYOMING SATURDAY
WHILE CUTTING OFF THE BULK OF ENERGY OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST. NAM
BRINGS MOST OF THIS ENERGY ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES
SATURDAY...AND FEW CHANGES MADE TO THE FORECAST UNTIL A BETTER
IDEA OF THIS SYSTEMS EVOLUTION IS APPARENT. AFTER UNSEASONABLY
COLD DAY THURSDAY...TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND TO MORE NEAR NORMAL
READINGS BY SATURDAY.

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
ZONAL FLOW SUNDAY SHOULD LIMIT PRECIPITATION TO THE WEST AD FAR
NORTH. BREEZY PATTERN FOR MOUNTAINS AND AREAS EAST OF THE
CONTINENTAL DIVIDE. SOME WARMING OCCURS EAST OF THE DIVIDE WITH
DOWNSLOPE WINDS. MONDAY ANOTHER PACIFIC TROUGH DIGS ACROSS THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST INTO THE NORTHERN GREAT BASIN AND PARKS ITSELF
THERE WEST OF WYOMING THROUGH TUESDAY. MODELS SHOW CONSIDERABLE
VARIATION IN DETAILS OF THE TROUGH BUT OVERALL ARE CLOSE IN MAIN
POSITION OF LONG WAVE TROUGH. MAIN DETAIL DIFFERENCES ARE WITH
POTENTIAL CUT OFF LOW DEVELOPING AND WHERE THAT CUT OFF WOULD BE
POSITIONED WITH RANGES FROM NORTHWEST MONTANA TO EXTREME NORTHERN
NEVADA. THIS COULD BE A PROLONGED PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER
ACROSS WYOMING ESPECIALLY IN THE WEST. IF THE MOISTURE IS
THERE...THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH DYNAMICS WITH DIVERGENCE
ALOFT...TRANSIENT SHORT WAVES EJECTING FROM MAIN TROUGH AND COLDER
AIR LOFT FOR INSTABILITY WHICH WILL BE SOMEWHAT DIURNALLY TRENDED
WITH AFTERNOON HEATING PLAYING ITS ROLE. SHOULD SEE FAIR COVERAGE
OF MOUNTAIN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY WITH THE VALLEYS
SEEING AT LEAST SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENINGS. EXPECT SHOWERS TO LINGER THROUGH THE
NIGHT AND MORNING HOURS...ESPECIALLY IN THE WESTERN MOUNTAINS AND
VALLEYS. WEDNESDAY MAY SEE SOME DRYING MOVE INTO THE SOUTH AND
SPREAD NORTH.

&&

.AVIATION...
UPPER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WITH A STRONG COLD FRONT IS MOVING THROUGH
THE REGION. EXPECT AREAS OF RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS TO MOVE ACROSS
WYOMING THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THIS SYSTEM WILL SPREAD MVFR
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA WITH ISOLATED IFR CONDITIONS OVER THE
HIGHER ELEVATION AIRPORTS. IFR CONDITIONS ARE ALSO EXPECTED OVER
MOUNTAIN FLY ROUTES...AND BRIEFLY IN HEAVIER PRECIP IN THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS. AFTER 00Z TONIGHT EXPECT SNOW TO OCCUR ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS...WITH SOME SNOW POSSIBLY MIXING WITH RAIN IN THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS WEST OF THE DIVIDE.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BRING 6 TO
10 INCHES OF SNOW TO THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS OVERNIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY MORNING...AND STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS OF NEAR 40 MPH WITH
GUSTS TO 60 MPH WILL MATERIALIZE ACROSS THE NORTHEAST DISTRICT
THURSDAY MORNING WITH STRONG WEST WIND 25 TO 35 MPH ACROSS MUCH OF
THE SOUTHERN WIND CORRIDOR...HOWEVER TEMPERATURES WILL BE
UNSEASONABLY COOL AND RELATIVE HUMIDITY REMAINING ON THE HIGH
SIDE. PRECIPITATION WILL WIND DOWN ACROSS THE DISTRICT BY THURSDAY
EVENING WITH A GRADUAL WARMING TREND EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.RIW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SNOW ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 12 PM MDT THURSDAY FOR
THE NORTHWEST MOUNTAINS WYZ001-002-012.

SNOW ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT UNTIL NOON THURSDAY FOR THE
BIG HORN MOUNTAINS WYZ008-009.

HIGH WIND WATCH FOR NORTHEAST JOHNSON COUNTY WYZ010 FROM 6 AM
UNTIL NOON THURSDAY.

&&

SHORT TERM...AEM
LONG TERM...C.BAKER
AVIATION...TEAM RIW
FIRE WEATHER...AEM

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RIVERTON WY
1214 PM MDT WED JUN 6 2007

WYZ001>020-022>030-071100-
ABSAROKA MOUNTAINS-BIGHORN MOUNTAINS SOUTHEAST-
BIGHORN MOUNTAINS WEST-CASPER MOUNTAIN-CODY FOOTHILLS-
EAST SWEETWATER COUNTY-FLAMING GORGE-
GREEN MOUNTAINS AND RATTLESNAKE RANGE-JACKSON HOLE-LANDER FOOTHILLS-
NATRONA COUNTY LOWER ELEVATIONS-NORTH BIG HORN BASIN-
NORTHEAST JOHNSON COUNTY-OWL CREEK AND BRIDGER MOUNTAINS-
ROCK SPRINGS AND GREEN RIVER-SALT RIVER AND WYOMING RANGES-
SOUTH LINCOLN COUNTY-SOUTHEAST BIG HORN BASIN-
SOUTHEAST JOHNSON COUNTY-SOUTHWEST BIG HORN BASIN-STAR VALLEY-
TETON AND GROS VENTRE MOUNTAINS-UPPER GREEN RIVER BASIN-
UPPER GREEN RIVER BASIN FOOTHILLS-UPPER WIND RIVER BASIN-
WIND RIVER BASIN-WIND RIVER MOUNTAINS EAST-WIND RIVER MOUNTAINS WEST-
YELLOWSTONE NATIONAL PARK-
1214 PM MDT WED JUN 6 2007

...TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 352 IN EFFECT FOR JOHNSON COUNTY UNTIL 6
PM...

...A SNOW ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR YELLOWSTONE NATIONAL PARK...THE
TETON MOUNTAINS...AND THE ABSAROKA MOUNTAINS BEGINNING AT 6 PM AND
CONTINUING UNTIL 12 PM MDT THURSDAY.

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WESTERN AND CENTRAL WYOMING.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT
THE POTENTIAL EXIST FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH ISOLATED TORNADOES
OVER JOHNSON COUNTY UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING.

SNOW WILL DEVELOP ACROSS HIGHER PEAKS OF THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS
THIS AFTERNOON WITH SNOW LEVELS LOWERING THIS EVENING.  TOTAL
SNOWFALL OVER THE MOUNTAINS OF YELLOWSTONE NATIONAL PARK...THE
ABSAROKA MOUNTAINS AND THE BIG HORN MOUNTAINS WILL TOTAL 6 TO 10
INCHES BY NOON THURSDAY.  STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS WILL ALSO DEVELOP
OVER NORTHEAST JOHNSON COUNTY THURSDAY MORNING WITH EXPECTED
SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS OF NEAR 40 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 60 MPH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS WILL ALSO DEVELOP
OVER NORTHEAST JOHNSON COUNTY THURSDAY MORNING WITH EXPECTED
SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS OF NEAR 40 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 60 MPH.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT HAIL SIZES AND WIND SPEEDS
TODAY AND TONIGHT.

TEAM RIVERTON

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