Winter Storm Watch 5, NWS Reno, NV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
245 PM PST SAT FEB 24 2007

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...
PACIFIC COLD FRONT CONTINUES MOVING EASTWARD AND AT 3 PM WAS MOVING
INLAND INTO WESTERN OREGON/NORTHWEST CA. LIGHT PRECIPITATION HAS
DEVELOPED ALONG THE WEST SLOPES OF THE NORTHERN SIERRA AND WAS
SPREADING INTO THE TAHOE REGION BASED ON RADAR IMAGERY AND WEB CAMS.
HEAVIER PRECIP WAS SPREADING ACROSS NORTHERN CA AHEAD OF THE FRONT
AND WILL MOVE INTO THE CWA THIS EVENING. WINTER STORM WARNINGS
REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR THE LAKE TAHOE AREA NORTH TO LASSEN COUNTY WITH
SNOW ADVISORIES FOR SURPRISE VALLEY AND NORTHERN WASHOE COUNTY
TONIGHT...EXTENDING THROUGH SUNDAY AT LAKE TAHOE. AS THE COLD FRONT
PUSHES SOUTH IT WILL BRING ENOUGH INSTABILITY TO PRODUCE SPILLOVER
WITH A SHOT OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW INTO EXTREME WESTERN
NV...RENO/CARSON CITY AREA...LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING.
STRONG WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL DIMINISH BUT REMAIN GUSTY WHILE
THE HEAVIER SNOW IS FALLING. A SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW ADVISORY HAS
BEEN ISSUED FOR ZONE 3 FROM 4AM TO NOON SUNDAY...PRECEDED BY A WIND
ADVISORY OVERNIGHT AND FOLLOWED BY A HIGH WIND WATCH FOR SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AS THE PRECIP TAPERS OFF. HIGH WIND WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT
FOR MONO COUNTY OVERNIGHT AND SUNDAY WITH ADVISORY LEVEL WIND SPEEDS
EXPECTED IN MINERAL COUNTY. FOR NOW HAVE LEFT CHURCHILL AND PERSHING
COUNTIES OUT OF WIND AND SNOW HEADLINES BUT GRIDS AND ZONES WILL
REFLECT WIND SPEEDS JUST BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS.

SNOWFALL OF 2 OR MORE FEET IS EXPECTED BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON AT UPPER
ELEVATIONS AROUND LAKE TAHOE FROM THIS STORM SYSTEM...WITH OVER A
FOOT POSSIBLE AT LAKE LEVEL. 2 TO 5 INCHES SPILLOVER INTO WESTERN NV
VALLEYS IS POSSIBLE. THE FRONTAL/PRECIP BAND STALLS AND WEAKENS AS
IT MOVES SOUTH SO SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL IS NOT EXPECTED IN THE SIERRA
IN MONO COUNTY ALTHOUGH SEVERAL INCHES ARE LIKELY ESPECIALLY NORTH
OF MONO LAKE. PRECIP DECREASES ALL AREAS SUNDAY EVENING BUT UPSLOPE
FLOW WILL BRING LESSER ACCUMULATIONS TO THE SIERRA INTO MONDAY. RC

.SHORT TERM...MONDAY AND TUESDAY...
A STRONG STORM WILL AFFECT THE SIERRA MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY SNOW IN SOME WESTERN VALLEYS AS WELL.  ISSUED A
WINTER STORM WATCH FOR THE SIERRA FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY
AFTERNOON...INCLUDING SURPRISE VALLEY. ALSO INCLUDED THE RENO AND
CARSON CITY AREAS MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING.

SNOW WILL CONTINUE IN THE SIERRA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY AND
THEN INCREASE AS JET MOVES INTO AREA AND DYNAMICS BECOME MORE
FAVORABLE. FROM MONDAY MIDDAY THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING THE CREST FROM
TAHOE NORTH COULD SEE UP TO 3 INCHES LIQUID...AND EVEN IF THAT IS ON
THE HIGH SIDE...WITH SNOW RATIOS OF 15 OR 20 TO 1...THE
MONDAY-TUESDAY SIERRA EVENT SHOULD EASILY RESULT IN 2 TO 3 FEET WITH
THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME 4-5 FOOT REPORTS. FOR THE SIERRA SOUTH OF
TAHOE THE HEAVIEST SNOW WILL BE LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY
MORNING WITH UP TO 1.5 INCHES LIQUID ALONG THE CREST FOR 2 TO 3
FEET.

PATTERN THAT SETS UP FOR EARLY IN THE WEEK IS SIMILAR TO OTHER HEAVY
SNOW PATTERNS FOR THE RENO-CARSON CITY AREAS. A 518DM LOW AT 500MB
IS POSITIONED OFF OF THE WASHINGTON COAST...JUST SLIGHTLY FURTHER
NORTH THAN WE WOULD LIKE TO SEE IN A CLASSIC EVENT. COLD POOL
CHARACTERIZED BY -36C TEMPS AT 500MB ALLOWING FOR STRONG
INSTABILITY. THESE SYSTEMS HAVE RELATIVELY LOW PW VALUES BUT THE
VERY LONG FETCH BACKSIDE OF SYSTEM EXTENDING FROM AK TO 35N WILL
PROVIDE AMPLE MOISTURE. CYCLONICALLY CURVED JET PUSHES INTO NRN CA
AND NW NV MONDAY WITH A 140KT CORE. THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF THIS JET
SAGS ACROSS NW NV AND NE CA MONDAY NIGHT AND THE TAHOE-RENO-MONO
COUNTY AREA EARLY TUESDAY. BY EARLY TUESDAY IMPRESSIVE FRONTOGENESIS
IS NOTED AT 700MB...AT 06Z TUE THE AREA IS ALONG I-80 FROM THE
SIERRA TO CENTRAL NV...SAGGING TO THE HWY-50 CORRIDOR BY 12Z AND TO
A TPH-ELY LINE BY 18Z. IF THIS OCCURS COULD SEE A PERIOD OF HEAVY
SNOW IN NEARLY ALL WESTERN VALLEY LOCATIONS LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY MORNING...BUT BEST AREA FOR RECEIVING 4+ INCHES IN 12 HOURS
WOULD BE CLOSER TO SIERRA WHERE MOST MOISTURE IS AVAILABLE FOR
SPILLOVER.

ALSO EXPECT ANOTHER HIGH WIND DAY TO THE LEE OF THE SIERRA MONDAY
BEFORE SPILL OVER PRECIPITATION BEGINS. MONDAY INTO EARLY TUESDAY
RIDGE TOP WINDS WILL BE OVER 100MPH.

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
AXIS OF UPPER TROUGH PASSES THROUGH GREAT BASIN TUESDAY NIGHT WITH A
SHORTWAVE DROPPING DOWN BACKSIDE OF TROUGH WHICH WILL BRING ANOTHER
SHOT OF LIGHT AMOUNT SNOW TO THE SIERRA. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE DROPS
THROUGH THE AREA THURSDAY WHICH COULD BRING MORE SNOW SHOWERS. FOR
THE END OF THE WEEK THE ECMWF AND GFS VARY BY UP TO 160DM WITH
RESPECT TO 500MB HEIGHTS. THE ECMWF IS MUCH COLDER WITH NORTHERLY
FLOW WHILE THE GFS IS WARMER WITH A FLAT RIDGE. IF THE EURO SOLUTION
IN CLOSER THEN WE WOULD HAVE COLDER TEMPS AND OCCASIONAL SHOWERS IN
THE SIERRA. CONFIDENCE LOW FOR END OF THE WEEK AND TRENDED THE POPS
TOWARD CLIMATOLOGY SINCE MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE QUITE DIFFERENT.

IF WE DO GET SOME VALLEY SNOW THAT STAYS AROUND OVERNIGHT LOWS UNDER
CLEARING SKIES TUESDAY NIGHT AND WED NIGHT WILL BE MUCH COLDER THAN
FORECAST AS WILL DAYTIME HIGHS DURING MIDWEEK AS SOLAR ENERGY GOES
TOWARD SNOW MELT VERSUS WARMING BOUNDARY LAYER. JAH

&&

.AVIATION...
STORM SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND SIERRA
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO DETERIORATE WITH CIGS BLO 010 AND VSBY
BLO 1/2SM IN MODERATE AND HEAVY SNOW. MTNS WILL BE OBSCURED THROUGH
00Z MONDAY. RIDGETOP WINDS WILL INCREASE STEADILY AS 100-140KT JET
MOVES ACROSS SIERRA NORTH OF TAHOE BASIN.

FOR KRNO...SFC WINDS WILL CONTINUE FROM THE SOUTHWEST AT 15-20KT
WITH GUSTS TO 30KT BEFORE PRECIPITATION BEGINS TO SPILL OVER THE
CREST. PRECIPITATION WILL DIMINISH WINDS BUT EXPECT LOW LEVEL WIND
SHEAR AFTER 06Z. EXPECT PERIODS OF SNOW IN THE RENO AREA SOMETIME
BETWEEN 09Z-15Z WHICH COULD RESULT IN MVFR-IFR CONDS AND AN INCH OR
2 ACCUMULATION AT THE AIRPORT. EXPECT STRONGEST SFC WINDS AFTER 15Z
SUNDAY AFTER PRECIPITATION ENDS WITH SOUTHWEST WINDS SUSTAINED UP TO
30KT AND G45KT.  JAH

&&

.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING
     FOR NVZ002.

     SNOW ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 4 AM PST SUNDAY FOR
     NVZ005.

     WINTER STORM WATCH FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING
     FOR NVZ003-004.

     LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM PST THIS AFTERNOON FOR NVZ002.

     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 PM PST SUNDAY
     FOR NVZ002.

     WIND ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 8 PM PST SUNDAY FOR NVZ001.

     SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 12 PM PST SUNDAY FOR
     NVZ003.

     WIND ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 AM PST SUNDAY FOR
     NVZ003.

     HIGH WIND WATCH FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING FOR
     NVZ003.

CA...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 4 PM PST SUNDAY FOR CAZ071.

     WINTER STORM WATCH FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING
     FOR CAZ071-072.

     SNOW ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 4 AM PST SUNDAY FOR
     CAZ070.

     HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM PST SUNDAY FOR
     CAZ073.

     WINTER STORM WATCH FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING
     FOR CAZ073.

     LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM PST THIS AFTERNOON FOR CAZ072.

     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 PM PST SUNDAY
     FOR CAZ072.

&&

HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>