Severe Thunderstorm Warning 1, NWS Reno, NV

000 
WWUS55 KREV 302214
SVSREV

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
313 PM PDT WED MAY 30 2007

CAC003-017-302230-
/O.CON.KREV.SV.W.0001.000000T0000Z-070530T2230Z/
ALPINE CA-EL DORADO CA-
313 PM PDT WED MAY 30 2007

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 330 PM PDT
FOR EAST CENTRAL EL DORADO AND NORTH CENTRAL ALPINE COUNTIES...

AT 310 PM PDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO
INDICATE A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING NICKEL SIZE HAIL.
THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR CARSON PASS. THIS STORM WAS NEARLY 
STATIONARY. VERY HEAVY RAIN WILL ALSO ACCOMPANY THIS STORM NEAR 
CARSON PASS.

OTHER LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO LUTHER
PASS AND HOPE VALLEY

LAT...LON 3882 12010 3867 12006 3870 11985 3882 11990

$$

JHW

000 
WWUS55 KREV 302226
SVSREV

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
326 PM PDT WED MAY 30 2007

CAC003-017-302235-
/O.EXP.KREV.SV.W.0001.000000T0000Z-070530T2230Z/
ALPINE CA-EL DORADO CA-
326 PM PDT WED MAY 30 2007

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR EAST CENTRAL EL DORADO AND
NORTH CENTRAL ALPINE COUNTIES EXPIRES AT 330 PM PDT...

THE STORM NEAR CARSON PASS IS WEAKENING AND THE THREAT OF SEVERE 
WEATHER HAS ENDED. THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING WILL EXPIRE AT 
330 PM.

LAT...LON 3882 12010 3867 12006 3870 11985 3882 11990

$$

JHW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
220 PM PDT WED MAY 30 2007

.SHORT TERM...
UPPER RIDGE OVER AREA WITH WEAK LOW MOVING INTO SRN CA PER WV
IMAGERY. MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH SHORT TERM WITH RIDGE
AXIS/HIGH CENTER JUST EAST OF THE AREA. LIGHT SOUTHEAST FLOW...IF
ANY WILL REMAIN INTO SAT AS A RESULT. WITH SFC THERMAL TROUGH IN THE
AREA...ON THE WEST SLOPES OF THE SIERRA IN THE MORNING...AND ALONG
THE SIERRA FRONT IN THE AFTERNOON...EXPECT THUNDERSTORMS EACH
AFTERNOON IN THE SIERRA. MOISTURE FROM MARINE LAYER WILL CONTINUE TO
SEEP UP THE SIERRA AND OVER THE CREST PROVIDING THE LIMITED MOISTURE
NECESSARY FOR THE AFTERNOON STORMS.

MOISTURE WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE THROUGH SATURDAY AND EXPECT
THUNDERSTORMS TO EXPAND AREALLY AND INCREASE IN COVERAGE THROUGH
THAT PERIOD. SAT APPEARS TO BE THE MOST ACTIVE DAY WITH THE BEST
MOISTURE AND AREA WILL BE UNDER NE QUAD OF APPROACHING UPPER LOW FOR
UPPER LEVEL DIFFULENCE. WITH STORMS MOVING VERY SLOWLY...BELIEVE
STORMS WILL BE WETTER THAN WOULD NORMALLY BE EXPECTED GIVEN THE
FAIRLY DRY AIRMASS.

BEGINNING THIS AFTERNOON...WILL EXTEND ISOLATED STORMS ALL ALONG
SIERRA FROM LASSEN SOUTH TO MONO COUNTY. BUILDUPS FORMING JUST EAST
OF LASSEN PEAK COULD DEVELOP INTO STORMS AROUND 00Z. WHILE SUBCLOUD
LAYER REMAINS QUITE DRY...STORM MOTION WILL BE ALMOST NON-EXISTENT
SO SOME RAIN SHOULD FALL. MICROBURST WINDS COULD ALSO BE A
PROBLEM...BUT SHOULD BE LOCALIZED.

THURSDAY WILL BE MORE OF A TRANSITION DAY AS MOISTURE CONTINUES TO
INCREASE AND INTO EXTREME WRN NV. HAVE EXTENDED STORMS TO WEST OF A
HAWTHORNE TO PYRAMID LAKE LINE WITH BEST COVERAGE IN THE SIERRA.
EXPECT STORMS TO BE A BIT WETTER...ALTHOUGH STILL FAIRLY DRY...SEE
FIRE WX DISCUSSION FOR MORE DETAILS ABOUT ANY FIRE CONCERNS.

BY FRIDAY...WITH MOISTURE CONTINUING TO INCREASE...EXPECT MOST
STORMS TO BE WET ACROSS THE SIERRA AND EXTREME WRN NV WITH A MIX OF
WET/DRY IN THE FALLON/LOVELOCK AREAS. SAT WILL CONTINUE WITH LOW END
SCT STORMS SIERRA TO EXTREME WRN NV AND ISOLATED FURTHER EAST. WITH
CONFIDENCE HIGH THAT STORMS WILL CONTINUE THE NEXT 3 DAYS HAVE GONE
WITH COVERAGE WORDING INSTEAD OF CHANCE TO INDICATE CONFIDENCE.
WALLMANN

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
PERIOD BEGINS WITH SIGNIFICANT RIDGING ALOFT OVER THE GREAT BASIN
AND NRN ROCKIES WITH LARGE TROF UPSTREAM OVER THE NE PACIFIC...PER
12Z GFS/ENS MEANS AND ECMWF. SUNDAY LOOKS TO BE THE LAST DAY OF
APPRECIABLE DIURNAL CONVECTION OVER THE CWA...WITH ENS MEAN SHOWING
PW VALUES 1-1.5 STD DEV ABOVE NORMAL AT 00Z/MON OVER WRN NV. HAVE
EXPANDED SLT CHC -TSRA OVER MOST OF THE CWA FOR SUN AFTN/EVE.

MONDAY INTO MID-WEEK...UPPER TROF OFF THE COAST MAKES A SLOW PUSH
E/NE...WITH FLOW OVER THE REGION BECOMING MORE ZONAL BY WEDNESDAY.
THIS SHOULD HELP COOL TEMPS SLIGHTLY...BUT THEY WILL STILL LIKELY BE
ABOVE NORMAL DURING THE PERIOD. HOWEVER TELECONNECTIONS ARE SHOWING
MIXED SIGNALS TEMPERATURE WISE FOR NEXT WEEK...AND NCEP RMOP IS
INDICATING SO-SO PREDICTABILITY REGARDING MOVEMENT OF RIDGE/UPSTREAM
TROF EARLY NEXT WEEK...SO DEFINITELY SOME UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE
OVERALL PATTERN.

CONVECTIVE CHCS WILL BY FOCUSED WELL NE OF THE CWA MON-WED...BUT A
FEW AFTN BUILDUPS CERTAINLY POSSIBLE IN THE FAVORED CONVERGENCE
ZONES. MON-TUE AFTNS COULD GET A LITTLE BREEZY (15KTS AT 700MB) BUT
NOTHING AS HIGH AS PREV RUNS OF THE GFS WERE SHOWING (25KTS+).

CS

&&

.AVIATION...
PREDOMINANTLY VFR DURING THE PERIOD WITH THE EXCEPTION OF ISLTD TSRA
POSSIBLE OVER THE SIERRA THROUGH 4Z PRODUCING LOCAL MVFR CONDITIONS
ALONG WITH STRONG GUSTY WINDS. MAY HAVE TO CONSIDER SOME VSBY
RESTRICTIONS AT TRK FOR THURS MORNING GIVEN PAST TWO DAYS WHERE FG
DEVELOPED 12Z EACH DAY. TSRA CHANCES ARE BETTER TOMORROW OVER
SIERRA...AND MAY EVEN MOVE CLOSE TO THE RNO TERMINAL AFTER 20Z.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO CLIMB MUCH ABOVE NORMAL WITH VERY DRY AIR
IN THE LOWER LEVELS UNDER STRONG HIGH PRESSURE. HUMIDITY RECOVERIES
WILL CONTINUE TO BE POOR TONIGHT...MAINLY ON MIDSLOPES AND UPPER
ELEVATIONS...HOWEVER RHS WILL SLOWLY RISE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCE OFF THE SRN CALIFORNIA COAST CURRENTLY
BRINGING HIGHER DEW POINTS INTO THE REGION UNDER SELY FLOW. WITH
INCREASING MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY OVER THE REGION...CHANCES FOR
AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INCREASE EACH DAY AS WELL.

AS FAR AS CRITICAL DRY LIGHTNING OR POSSIBLE RED FLAG
CONDITIONS...FEEL THAT THURSDAY WILL BE THE MOST CRITICAL DAY OVER
FWZ273 WHERE FUELS ARE THE DRIEST. FUELS FROM THE TAHOE BASIN NORTH
HAVE NOT FULLY CURED AND REACHED THE CRITICAL STAGE...SO HAVED RULED
OUT RFWS FOR THOSE AREAS ALTHOUGH THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
MAINLY DRY.

THUNDERSTORM CHANCES REALLY PICK UP ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH
INCREASING MOISTURE BRINGING BETTER CHANCES FOR WETTING RAIN.
THUNDERSTORMS ARE MAINLY EXPECTED NEAR THE SIERRA CREST BOTH
DAYS...HOWEVER WEST WINDS AS WELL AS THUNDERSTORM OUTFLOWS WILL BLOW
STORMS OFF THE CREST INTO WRN NEVADA. THIS COULD POSE A PROBLEM BOTH
DAYS FOR FWZ450 AND 459 WITH VERY DRY FUELS IN THOSE AREAS. WILL
HAVE TO SEE HOW THE STORMS LOOK LATER TODAY AND AGAIN ON THURSDAY
BEFORE MAKING A DECISION ON THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE AND POSSIBLE FIRE
WEATHER WATCH FOR THE MENTIONED TIMES AND AREAS. JORDAN

&&

.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&

HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO