Lake Wind Advisory 5, NWS Reno, NV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
310 AM PDT FRI AUG 17 2007

.SHORT TERM...
WILL LEAVE MENTION OF MORNING SMOKE/HAZE IN SRN ZONES TODAY AS A
CARRYOVER FROM THE HAZY CONDITIONS THAT OCCURRED YESTERDAY...SMOKE
CONDITIONS IN THESE AREAS ARE UNDETERMINED AT THIS TIME. WINDS ALOFT
BECOMING A BIT MORE SW SHOULD PUSH THE SMOKE PLUME FROM THE ZACA
FIRE IN SRN CA FARTHER EAST BY THIS AFTERNOON.

MAIN UPPER LOW WILL REMAIN OFFSHORE FROM THE US-CANADA BORDER TODAY
BEFORE ADVANCING TOWARD THE COAST AND MOVING INLAND THIS WEEKEND.
SHORTWAVE ENERGY AROUND THIS TROF WILL AFFECT THE REGION THIS
WEEKEND WITH WINDS BEING THE MAIN EFFECT ON BOTH DAYS...ALONG WITH
TEMPS COOLING A FEW DEGREES EACH DAY TO THE UPPER 80S-NEAR 90 BY
SUNDAY IN MOST VALLEYS. SLGT INSTBY OVER ERN MINERAL-SERN MONO
COUNTY TODAY AND SATURDAY WILL RESULT IN SOME CUMULUS BUILDUPS EACH
DAY BUT TSTMS ARE NOT LIKELY AS SIMILAR INSTBY PROFILES SO FAR THIS
WEEK HAVE NOT YIELDED ANY LIGHTNING STRIKES. STABLE AIR MASS IS
EXPECTED IN ALL AREAS ON SUNDAY WITH FRONT PASSAGE ACCOMPANIED BY
SOME HIGH CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE LEE SIDE WAVE CLOUDS.

RIDGETOP WIND GUSTS HAVE DROPPED FROM OVER 50 MPH YESTERDAY EVENING
TO CURRENT SPEEDS BELOW 40 MPH...WITH 700 MB WINDS EXPECTED TO
DECREASE THRU THIS AFTERNOON. THE RESULTANT SURFACE WINDS WILL BE
LIGHTER THAN YESTERDAY WITH GUSTS IN MOST AREAS REMAINING BELOW 30
MPH. WITH FOCUS ON STRONGER WINDS COMING IN AGAIN FOR THIS
WEEKEND...THE LAKE WIND ADVISORY FOR TODAY HAS BEEN CANCELLED. MJD

.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
MODELS IN MUCH BETTER AGREEMENT IN THE LONG TERM THAN THEY HAVE BEEN
RECENTLY WITH THE PATTERN DEAMPLIFYING. FLAT RIDGE OVER THE SRN
CONUS WITH ONE CENTER OFF THE COAST AND ZONAL FLOW TO THE NORTH.
RIDGE WILL SPLIT A BIT WITH ONE CENTER REMAINING OFF THE COAST AND
ANOTHER OVER THE SOUTHEAST U.S. BETWEEN THE TWO BY WED WILL BE A
WEAK BAGGY TROUGH WHICH WILL COOL TEMPS OFF ALOFT. AREA WILL MAINLY
BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE RIDGE WITH EXTREMELY WARM H5 TEMPS OF
-2 C FOR MON. WITH FRONT PASSING THROUGH ON SUNDAY AND LIGHT NW FLOW
ALOFT...EXPECT STRONG INVERSION NEAR 600 MB WHICH GFS DEPICTS WELL.
SO TEMPS WILL STRUGGLE TO WARM SOME. EXPECT WARMER TEMPERATURES
TUE/WED WITH AUGUST SUN AND COOLING ALOFT FROM TROUGH FOR BETTER
MIXING. TEMPS LIKELY INTO THE MID-UPPER 90S ACROSS WRN NV AND HAVE
ADJUSTED TEMPS UP 4-5 DEGREES ACROSS THE BOARD TO ALMOST 10 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL. HEIGHTS FALL A BIT FOR THURSDAY ON ALL MODELS SO HAVE
COOLED TEMPS SLIGHTLY BUT STILL ABOVE NORMAL.

EXPECT DRY WEATHER FOR THE WEEK ALTHOUGH THE EURO PRESENTS AN
INTERESTING SOLUTION. INSTEAD OF THE LOW PASSING JUST TO THE EAST ON
THU...IT CUTS OFF A WEAK LOW OVER CA WHICH WOULD KEEP THE COOLER
TEMPS ALOFT. WITH VERY WARM TEMPS...MIGHT BE ABLE TO SQUEEZE A
THUNDERSTORM OR TWO FOR THU...BUT SINCE IT IS THE ONLY MODEL SHOWING
THIS AND UNCERTAINTY IS HIGH WILL JUST WATCH IT FOR NOW. WALLMANN
&&

.AVIATION...
VFR EXCEPT FOR SOME LOCAL 5SM NEAR KMMH DURING THE MORNING HOURS
TODAY DUE TO SMOKE FROM THE ZACA FIRE. WINDS TODAY WILL BE LIGHTER.
WALLMANN
&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
LIGHTER WINDS EXPECTED TODAY AS THE FRONT WASHES OUT A BIT. NEXT
CONCERN IS FOR SAT AS THE NEXT SHORT WAVE IS PROGGED TO MOVE THROUGH
THE AREA AND INCREASE WINDS. GFS/NAM/SREF IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH H7
WINDS OF 20-25KTS ACROSS THE AREA SAT. WITH AREA STILL AHEAD OF THE
FRONT AND SOME VERY DRY AIR...LOOKING LIKE A GOOD BET TO AT LEAST
APPROACH IF NOT EXCEED RED FLAG CRITERIA. PLAN ON ISSUING A WATCH
LATER WITH THE MORNING FIRE WEATHER FORECAST.

BY SUNDAY THE FRONT MAY BE THROUGH THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA
WITH SOME MOISTURE INCREASING BEHIND THE FRONT. ALSO...THE FRONT
DOES NOT APPEAR QUITE AS STRONG SINCE THE NEXT SHORT WAVE LOOKS A
LITTLE BIT WEAKER. STILL MAY NEED SOME WATCHES FOR SUN BUT
UNCERTAINTY TOO HIGH AT THIS TIME. WALLMANN
&&

.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&

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