Fire Weather Watch 13, NWS Reno, NV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
530 AM PDT MON JUL 16 2007

.UPDATE...
ABUNDANT MID-LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS AREAS SOUTH AND EAST OF I-80 THIS
MORNING AND 12Z KREV RAOB SHOWS 0.7 PW. A DECENT LITTLE SHORT WAVE
IS ALSO NEARING POINT CONCEPTION WITH 50 KT JET STREAK ON SE SIDE.
UPPER LEVEL LAPSE RATES NOT THE GREATEST...BUT ENOUGH FOR THE
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OCCURRING OVER CENTRAL NV. BEST LIFT FROM
SHORT WAVE AND JET WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA MID-MORNING THROUGH
EARLY AFTERNOON SO EXPECT TO SEE AT LEAST ISOLATED SHOWERS FROM MONO
COUNTY NORTH INTO PERSHING COUNTY IF NOT A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO
DURING THE MORNING HOURS. UPDATING TO ADD WEATHER MENTION TO THE
MORNING HOURS...AS SOME LIGHT SHOWERS PER KRGX ARE ALREADY
DEVELOPING FROM HAWTHORNE TO WINNEMUCCA. WALLMANN

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED AT 300 AM
SHORT TERM...
I UPPED POPS TODAY TO SCATTERED SOUTH AND EAST. I ALSO REMOVED
THUNDER WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR W/NW AREAS AND PUSHED WX
MENTION FURTHER NORTH. OTHERWISE...COSMETIC CHANGES ONLY TO SHORT
TERM GRIDS. TEMPERATURES TO BE ABOVE NORMAL MONDAY...LESS SO
TUESDAY...AND ACTUALLY NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL BY WEDNESDAY
AS A TROUGH NEARS THE REGION.

UPPER DISTURBANCE RESPONSIBLE FOR CONTINUED ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWERS
OR VIRGA (WITH THUNDERSTORMS OVER EASTERN NEVADA) EARLY THIS MORNING
OVER PERSHING AND CHURCHILL COUNTIES SHOULD MOVE OUT EARLY THIS
MORNING...WITH RESIDUAL CLOUDINESS HANGING AROUND IN THE MORNING.
ANOTHER DISTURBANCE CURRENTLY OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA IS DUE TO
MOVE OVER THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. YESTERDAY...SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WERE BORDERLINE SCATTERED IN AREAS OF MONO AND
MINERAL COUNTIES...SO THIS AFTERNOONS DISTURBANCE SHOULD SPARK OFF
A BIT MORE CONVECTION. THEREFORE...I UPPED POPS TO SCATTERED OVER
THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AS WITH
THIS MORNING...A FEW SHOWERS MAY HANG AROUND AFTER MIDNIGHT OVER
EASTERN PERSHING AND CHURCHILL COUNTIES AS THE UPPER DISTURBANCE
MOVES THROUGH CENTRAL AND NORTHERN NEVADA.

TUESDAY...THE UPPER RIDGE BEGINS TO PUSH EAST OF THE REGION AS A
TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC MOVES CLOSER TO THE COAST. THE FLOW
SHOULD INCREASE ENOUGH TO PUSH OUT MOST INSTABILITY...BUT I LEFT THE
RUNNING GHOST POPS FOR EASTERN AREAS OF THE CWA WITH A MODEST 500 MB
RESPONSE AND A SMALL POCKET OF AROUND 30C HIGH LEVEL TOTAL TOTALS
SHOWING UP IN THE GFS.

WEDNESDAY...THE TROUGH IS PROGGED TO EDGE STILL CLOSER TO THE COAST
BUT START RUNNING OUT OF STEAM AS THE UPPER FLOW TURNS PARALLEL TO
THE THERMAL GRADIENT AND A JET MAX ROUNDS TO THE FRONT SIDE OF THE
TROUGH. AS THE THERMAL PACKING INCREASES WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING WITH THE NEARING TROUGH...WINDS IN THE 500-300 MB LAYER ARE
PROGGED TO INCREASE TO 50-80 KTS. MODELS INDICATE SOME INCREASE IN
700 MB MOISTURE MOVING INTO LASSEN COUNTY SO I LEFT THE SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS FOR FAR NORTHERN AREAS. HOWEVER...I REMOVED THUNDER AS
THERE SHOULD BE WAY TOO MUCH SHEAR...NOT ENOUGH INSTABILITY...AND
LITTLE LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS. ONE THING IS FOR
SURE THOUGH...IT WILL BE RATHER BREEZY WITH THE INFLUX OF COOLER AIR
DEVELOPING A GOOD PRESSURE GRADIENT FROM CALIFORNIA TO CENTRAL
NEVADA. SNYDER

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
MODELS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT THE RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES WILL
STRENGTHEN INTO THE WEEKEND...BUT CENTER LOCATION AND STRENGTH STILL
A BIT IFFY. GFS/EURO IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH CENTER LOCATED OVER
THE NORTHERN ROCKIES WHILE CANADIAN PUTS THE CENTER OVER NEVADA. 00Z
GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN APPEARS TO BE A GOOD BLEND OF THE GFS/EURO IDEAS
AND WILL USE IT. VERY FEW CHANGES NEEDED AS TEMPS RISE INTO SAT/SUN.
HAVE ADJUSTED OVERNIGHT LOWS TO BETTER MATCH RIDGE CURRENTLY
OVERHEAD MINUS CLOUD COVER. WITH RIDGE AXIS SW TO NE...WILL BE HARD
INITIALLY TO GET ANY MOISTURE AROUND...BUT LATER IN THE WEEKEND
ENOUGH SHOULD SEEP IN TO PERMIT A FEW THUNDERSTORMS OVER
MONO-MINERAL COUNTIES. POTENTIAL BETTER CHANCE EARLY NEXT WEEK IF
GFS VERIFIES AS EURO HAS A BIT TOO MUCH SW FLOW. EITHER WAY...A
RETURN TO TEMPS 5-10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL A GOOD BET. WALLMANN
&&

.AVIATION...
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED TSRA SOUTH AND EAST OF A KBPT-KLOL LINE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...ENDING BY MIDNIGHT. OTHERWISE VFR WITH
TYPICAL AFTERNOON WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS INTO KRNO/KTRK/KTVL.
WALLMANN
&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
TYPICAL ZEPHYR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TODAY ALONG THE SIERRA FRONT WITH
THUNDERSTORMS SOUTH AND EAST OF A WALKER CA TO LOVELOCK NV LINE.
MOST OF THESE THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE WET AS PRECIPITABLE WATERS ARE
NEAR 3/4 INCH AND STORM MOTION WILL BE 10-15 KTS. MAIN CONCERN WILL
CONTINUE TO BE INCREASE IN WINDS TUE-WED. MOST AFFECTED AREAS WILL
BE NORTH OF I-80 TUES AND ALL AREAS WED. RH SHOULD BE LOW ENOUGH IN
MOST AREAS TO MEET CRITERIA TUE AND SOUTHERN AREAS WED. WILL PUT OUT
A WATCH FOR DESERT AREAS NORTH OF I-80 EXCEPT 453 FOR TUES AS GUSTS
WILL BE 30-40 MPH. WINDS ARE TYPICALLY A BIT LIGHTER IN 271...BUT
SOME OF THE MUCH LIGHTER WINDS ARE DUE TO SHELTERING ISSUES BY
TREES. MAY ISSUE A WATCH FOR THIS AREA TOO AFTER TAKING A CLOSER
LOOK. WALLMANN
&&

.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&

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