Severe Thunderstorm Warning 92, NWS Raleigh, NC

000 
WWUS52 KRAH 082048
SVSRAH

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
446 PM EDT FRI JUN 8 2007

NCC153-082115-
/O.CON.KRAH.SV.W.0092.000000T0000Z-070608T2115Z/
RICHMOND NC-
446 PM EDT FRI JUN 8 2007

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 515 PM EDT
FOR CENTRAL RICHMOND COUNTY...

AT 445 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO
INDICATE A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM.  THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR
ELLERBE...OR ABOUT 8 MILES NORTH OF ROCKINGHAM...MOVING EAST AT 15
MPH.

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL OTHERWISE REMAIN OVER MAINLY RURAL AREAS
OF THE INDICATED COUNTY.

PENNY SIZE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 58 MPH ARE POSSIBLE 
WITH THIS STORM. DANGEROUS CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING 
WITH THIS STORM AS WELL. SEEK SHELTER INSIDE UNTIL THE STORM HAS 
PASSED. 

LAT...LON 3512 7992 3497 7989 3498 7966 3514 7968

$$

JFB

000 
WWUS52 KRAH 082113
SVSRAH

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
511 PM EDT FRI JUN 8 2007

NCC153-082121-
/O.EXP.KRAH.SV.W.0092.000000T0000Z-070608T2115Z/
RICHMOND NC-
512 PM EDT FRI JUN 8 2007

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR CENTRAL RICHMOND COUNTY
EXPIRES AT 515 PM EDT...

THE STORM THAT PROMPTED THE WARNING HAS WEAKENED AND IS NO LONGER 
SEVERE. EVEN THOUGH THE STORM IS NOT SEVERE...DANGEROUS CLOUD TO 
GROUND LIGHTNING AND VERY HEAVY RAIN IS STILL OCCURRING WITH THIS 
STORM. DOPPLER RADAR ESTIMATES THAT NEARLY TWO INCHES OF RAIN HAS 
FALLEN WEST OF ELLERBE AND WEST OF HIGHWAY 220. MOTORISTS ARE URGED 
TO EXERCISE CAUTION...AS SIGNIFICANT PONDING OF WATER IS LIKELY IN 
LOW LYING LOCATIONS.

LAT...LON 3512 7992 3497 7989 3498 7966 3514 7968

$$

JFB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
240 PM EDT FRI JUN 8 2007

.SYNOPSIS...A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST
THROUGH SATURDAY AND CROSS THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA FROM THE GREAT LAKES SUNDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY
EVENING. SURFACE TROUGH OVER WESTERN TIER SECTIONS WILL GRADUALLY
SHIFT EAST OVERNIGHT. THIS ALONG WITH AIR MASS MOIST AND FAIRLY
UNSTABLE EXPECT SCATTERED CONVECTION AS THE AFTERNOON PROGRESSES.
ALREADY SEEING CONVECTION FIRING NOT TOO FAR WEST OF CWA OVER
FOOTHILLS. EVEN THOUGH WIDE SPREAD COVERAGE IS NOT ANTICIPATED...THE
BEST TIME FRAME FOR STORMS WILL BE FROM 21Z THROUGH ABOUT 04Z. STILL
THINK THE MAIN THREAT WILL BE DOWNBURST WITH A CONSIDERABLE AMOUNT
OF LIGHTNING. THEN AFTER MIDNIGHT THROUGH EARLY MORNING
HOURS...EMPHASIS WILL SHIFT TO EASTERN THIRD CWA WITH TROUGH IN THE
AREA...MODERATELY UNSTABLE/LIFT WILL RESULT IN AN ONGOING CHANCE FOR
CONVECTION. WARM AND HUMID OVERNIGHT WITH LOWS GENERALLY 70 TO NEAR
75

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...

CONVECTIVELY ACTIVE DAY POSSIBLE ON SATURDAY. A MODERATELY UNSTABLE
AIR MASS WILL BE IN PLACE WITH SURFACE BASED LIFTED INDICES -4 TO -6
DEG C. IN ADDITION, MID/UPPER LEVEL WINDS WILL BE INCREASING AS
REGION IN NOSE OF H3 JET BY LATE AFTERNOON. MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES
RESPECTABLE WITH VALUES BETWEEN 6 AND 6.5 DEG C/KM. MAIN FORECAST
CHALLENGE IS THE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE AVAILABLE FOR DEEP CONVECTION
TO FIRE. LATEST MODEL RUN HAS BECOME MUCH DRIER IN THE MID/UPPER
LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE. THUS...12Z MOS POP GUIDANCE WAS AT OR
BELOW 20% ACROSS CENTRAL NC. DUE TO STRENGTH OF DYNAMICS ALOFT AND
POTENT COLD FRONT CROSSING REGION AROUND MAX HEATING...BELIEVE MOS
GUIDANCE TOO LOW WITH POPS. WILL MAINTAIN CHANCE POPS ACROSS MUCH OF
THE AREA SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH THE GREATEST COVERAGE
OF STORMS EXPECTED ALONG AND EAST OF HIGHWAY 1. POTENTIAL FOR A FEW
STORMS TO BE SEVERE SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH THE
LOCALIZED DAMAGING DOWNBURST WINDS THE MAIN THREAT FOLLOWED BY LARGE
HAIL. FREQUENT/EXCESSIVE LIGHTNING ALSO A CONCERN...ESPECIALLY ALONG
THE COASTAL PLAIN AND THE SANDHILLS.

AIR MASS BECOMES DRIER AND MORE STABLE SUN-MON AS HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE GREAT LAKES EXTEND SEWD INTO CENTRAL NC. DEWPOINTS SUN
INTO MON EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MORE COMFORTABLE 50S AND LOWER 60S.
MODELS DO DEPICT A DECENT VORT MAX CROSSING THE AREA SUN AFTERNOON.
HOWEVER THE AIR MASS APPEARS TOO DRY TO SUPPORT NOTHING MORE THAN A
FEW CLOUDS.

TEMP WISE...POTENTIAL FOR A FEW HOURS HEATING SATURDAY. THIS SHOULD
HELP TO PUSH TEMPS INTO THE 90-95 DEGREE RANGE. HOWEVER...IF
SCATTERED SHOWERS OCCURRING SATURDAY MORNING...MAX TEMPS MAY BE 3-4
DEGREES TOO WARM.

NLY FLOW SUN INTO MON WILL USHER SEASONABLE AND LESS HUMID AIR INTO
CENTRAL NC. LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES FAVOR MAX TEMPS COMPARABLE TO NAM
MOS...GENERALLY MID/UPPER 80S BOTH DAYS. LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT WILL
VARY FROM UPPER 60S IN THE SOUTH WHERE DRIER/COOLER AIR DELAYED
UNTIL SUN. LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT IN THE 60-65 DEGREE RANGE.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...

L/W TROUGH IN VICINITY OF THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD AND AN UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE EXTENDING FROM THE LOWER MS VALLEY INTO THE GREAT LAKES WILL
RESULT IN DRY CONDITIONS TUESDAY WITH TEMPS CLOSE TO SEASONABLE
NORMS. DECENT S/W IN THE NORTHERN STREAM EXPECTED TO PUSH INTO THE
NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS BY MID WEEK THEN LIFT INTO THE GREAT LAKES
LATE IN THE WEEK. THIS SYSTEM WILL FLATTEN RIDGE TO OUR
WEST...POSSIBLY ALLOWING SOME ENERGY ALOFT TO SLIDE INTO THE
NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC THU-FRI. MARGINALLY MOIST AIRMASS COUPLED WITH
HEATING AND WEAK SUPPORT ALOFT MAY BE ENOUGH TO TRIGGER CONVECTION
WED-FRI. DO NOT EXPECT ANY ORGANIZED CONVECTION WED-FRI...SO EXPECT
RAIN THREAT TO BE NO HIGHER THAN 20-25%. TEMPS THROUGH PERIOD SHOULD
HOVER CLOSE TO NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
EXPECT SCATTERED CU 5 TO 6KFT THROUGH 00Z AT ALL TAF SITES.
POTENTIAL FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH BRIEF CIGS
4-6KFT VSBYS 4-6 MILES THROUGH SOUTHWEST WINDS 8 TO 10 MPH WITH
BRIEF GUSTS 12-18 MPH. AFTER 04Z...MINIMAL CHANCE FOR CONVECTION
WESTERN TAF SITES...GSO/INT AS WINDS SHIFT AROUND TO THE WEST AND
NORTHWEST. BUT CONTINUING CHANCE RDU-RWI-FAY THROUGH DAYBREAK WHERE
AIR MASS REMAINS UNSTABLE AND SURFACE TROUGH IN THE VICINITY. FOR
SATURDAY...COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST AND MOVE THROUGH THE
AREA...THUS CONTINUED CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. CIGS
4-5KFT IN SHOWERS AND STORMS.

VFR CONDITIONS SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY AS MORE STABLE AND LESS
HUMID CONDITIONS MOVING INTO AREA.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...WSS
NEAR TERM...RA
SHORT TERM...WSS
LONG TERM...WSS
AVIATION...RA

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
1025 AM EDT FRI JUN 8 2007

NCZ007>011-021>028-038>043-073>078-083>086-088-089-090800-
PERSON-GRANVILLE-VANCE-WARREN-HALIFAX-FORSYTH-GUILFORD-ALAMANCE-
ORANGE-DURHAM-FRANKLIN-NASH-EDGECOMBE-DAVIDSON-RANDOLPH-CHATHAM-
WAKE-JOHNSTON-WILSON-STANLY-MONTGOMERY-MOORE-LEE-HARNETT-WAYNE-
ANSON-RICHMOND-SCOTLAND-HOKE-CUMBERLAND-SAMPSON-
1025 AM EDT FRI JUN 8 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL NORTH
CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

HEAT INDEX READINGS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH NEAR 100 THIS AFTERNOON
AND HEAT STRESS WILL INCREASE FOR INDIVIDUALS WORKING OUTDOORS FOR
MORE THAN 30 TO 60 MINUTES.

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THE
EVENING MAY PRODUCE LOCALIZED DAMAGING DOWNBURST WINDS AND NEARLY
CONTINUOUS LIGHTNING STRIKES WITH 20 TO 40 STRIKES POSSIBLE IN A
FIVE MINUTE PERIOD.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED LATE SATURDAY...OTHERWISE NO
HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

DUE TO THE EXPECTED ISOLATED NATURE OF THE STORMS...SPOTTER NETWORK
ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT. HOWEVER SPOTTERS ARE
ENCOURAGED TO REPORT MEASURED RAINFALL AMOUNTS IN EXCESS OF AN
INCH...ANY SIZE HAIL THAT OCCURS OR WIND GUSTS THAT DOWN TREES OR
LARGE TREE LIMBS.

WSS/RA