Severe Thunderstorm Warning 295, NWS Raleigh, NC

000 
WWUS52 KRAH 141925
SVSRAH

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
325 PM EDT FRI SEP 14 2007

NCC037-142000-
/O.CON.KRAH.SV.W.0295.000000T0000Z-070914T2000Z/
CHATHAM NC-
325 PM EDT FRI SEP 14 2007

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 400 PM EDT
FOR CHATHAM COUNTY...

AT 319 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO
INDICATE A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM.  THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR
PITTSBORO...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 20 MPH.

LOCATIONS IN THE PATH OF THE STORM INCLUDE... BYNUM...JORDAN LAKE AND
FEARRINGTON.

REPORT SEVERE WEATHER TO THE NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCY. THEY
WILL RELAY YOUR REPORT TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST
OFFICE IN RALEIGH.

LAT...LON 3565 7940 3587 7916 3585 7914 3586 7890
      3571 7896 3562 7910 3563 7913 3555 7921
      3556 7923 3553 7927
TIME...MOT...LOC 1925Z 226DEG 20KT 3572 7916

$$

23

000 
WWUS52 KRAH 141955
SVSRAH

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
354 PM EDT FRI SEP 14 2007

NCC037-142004-
/O.EXP.KRAH.SV.W.0295.000000T0000Z-070914T2000Z/
CHATHAM NC-
354 PM EDT FRI SEP 14 2007

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR CHATHAM COUNTY EXPIRES AT 400
PM EDT...

THE STORM THAT PROMPTED THE WARNING IS OVER FAR EASTERN JORDAN LAKE 
AND HAS WEAKENED. 

LAT...LON 3565 7940 3587 7916 3585 7914 3586 7890
      3571 7896 3562 7910 3563 7913 3555 7921
      3556 7923 3553 7927
TIME...MOT...LOC 1954Z 226DEG 20KT 3576 7898

$$

GIH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
1110 AM EDT FRI SEP 14 2007

.SYNOPSIS...A STATIONARY FRONT SOUTH OF THE AREA WILL LIFT NORTH
TODAY AS A WARM FRONT. WIDESPREAD RAIN IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD
NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT...AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT THAT WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE STATE SATURDAY
MORNING.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...

AIRCRAFT SOUNDINGS AND GSO RAOB INDICATES 15 TO 20KTS OF SSE UPSLOPE
COMPONENT ACROSS WESTERN NC...RESULTING IN WIDESPREAD RAIN OVER THE
MOUNTAINS AND ESPECIALLY THE NORTHERN FOOTHILLS. ASHEVILLE HAS
ALREADY PICKED UP ALMOST 2.0 THIS MORNING...MEANWHILE THE HIGHEST
MEASURABLE PRECIP IN THE WFO RAH FORECAST AREA IS WINSTON
SALEM...WITH APPROXIMATELY 0.23 OF AN INCH SINCE 12Z. MEANWHILE...
THE EASTERN TWO-THIRDS OF THE STATE REMAINS UNDER THE CONTROL OF
SUBSIDENCE AND CONSIDERABLE DRY AIR FROM THE DRY AIR SURFACE RIDGE
THAT EXTENDS THE MID-ATLANTIC SEABOARD FROM A WEAK 1021MB PARENT
HIGH OFF THE NEW JERSEY COAST. THE DRY 12Z KWAL RAOB...THE BREAKS
IN CLOUD COVER OBSERVED IN THE LATEST VISIBLE MICROWAVE IMAGERY AND
THE REPORTS OF CLOUD BASES AT OR ABOVE 10KFT...ALL INDICATE THE
MAGNITUDE OF DRY AIR THAT MUST BE OVERCOME BEFORE PRECIPITATION
BEGINS TO REACH THE GROUND. AND THIS WILL BEGIN TO TAKE PLACE
BETWEEN 18 TO 00Z FROM BROAD SCALE WAA...AS LOW-LEVEL WINDS VEER
AROUND AROUND TO A MORE SOUTHERLY AND SOUTHWESTERLY DIRECTION. AS
THIS TRANSPIRES...THE WIDESPREAD UPSLOPE PRECIP SHIELD ACROSS
WESTERN SECTIONS WILL BEGIN TO WANE...WITH MORE OF A SCATTERED
SHOWERY NATURE IN THE PRECIP ACROSS ALL OF THE CWA AS BOUNDARY
LIFTS NORTH INTO THE AREA. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE
DECENT INSTABILITY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SANDHILLS AND SOUTHERN
COASTAL PLAIN WITH THE GFS BUFR HIGHLIGHTING SBCAPES AT AROUND 1500
J/KG. SO THERE IS THE THREAT OF AN ISOLATED SEVERE OR TORNADO EVENT
AS AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES IN THE WARM SECTOR CLIMB INTO THE LOWER
80S WITH DECENT 25 TO 30KTS OF 0-6KM OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR. THE GFS
CONTINUES TO BE THE STRONGEST WITH THE 850 LL JET...AND ASSOCIATED
SHEAR BUT BELIEVE THIS COULD BE A RESULT OF SOME CONVECTIVE
FEEDBACK/SCHEME THAT IS RESULTING IN AN ERRONEOUS CIRCULATION
CENTER. PREFER THE NAM WITH A WEAKER 850 FLOW AND MORE AN OPEN
TROUGH SCENARIO.

PRECIP IS THEN EXPECTED TO FILL IN ACROSS CENTRAL NC THIS EVENING
AND OVERNIGHT AS WARM FRONT LIFTS TO THE NORTH...AND WITH THE
INCREASING UPPER DYNAMICAL SUPPORT FROM A COMBINATION OF HUMBERTO
REMNANTS AND THE APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND RR QUAD OF UPPER
JET FROM THE NORTH. HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES SHIFT TO THE EASTERN HALF
AS HIGH PWS ABOVE 2.0 AND 500 TO 1000 J/KG OF CAPE ACROSS THE
EASTERN HALF. DESPITE THE EXPECTED LULL THROUGH 00Z...EASTERN AREAS
COULD STILL RECEIVE A HALF INCH TO AN INCH FROM 00Z TO 12Z SATURDAY.
WESTERLY COMPONENT KICKS IN BETWEEN 09Z TO 12Z...SHUTTING OFF PRECIP
FROM NW TO SE.

LATE MORNING UPDATE WILL FEATURE A REDUCTION IN POPS AND QPF ACROSS
THE EASTERN HALF THROUGH 00Z THIS EVENING...THEN CATEGORICAL POPS
THEREAFTER. FORECAST MAX TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO NEED TO BE ADJUSTED
FROM RDU EAST WITH LACK OF PRECIP. MANY EASTERN AREAS ARE ALREADY A
FEW DEGREES FROM FORECAST MAX....THUS WILL RAISE ABOUT ONE CATEGORY
INTO THE LOWER TO MID 80S. TEMPERATURES IN THE TRIAD SHOULD BEGIN
TO RESPOND UPWARD...ONCE PRECIP BEGINS TO TAPER OFF THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM / SATURDAY THROUGH 6 AM SATURDAY/...
IF THERE IS ANY RAIN CHANCE IN OUR SOUTHEAST PARTS... IT SHOULD
QUICKLY EXIT SATURDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS TO NEW ENGLAND
SUNDAY NIGHT AND PERSISTS INTO MONDAY AS DRY CONDITIONS RETURN.
COOLEST AIR SINCE SPRING ARRIVES WITH LOWS IN THE 50S SUNDAY AND
MONDAY MORNINGS. WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP TEMPERATURES ABOVE WHAT
CLIMATOLOGY WOULD INDICATE FOR THE GIVEN GFS THICKNESS...WHILE
ACKNOWLEDGING SOME LOWS IN THE 40S ARE CERTAINLY POSSIBLE IF THE
MODELS DO NOT MODERATE THE FORECAST AIR MASS. FORECAST HIGH
TEMPERATURES FOR MONDAY ARE ALSO AT RISK FOR BEING TOO WARM....
BUT AM COMFORTABLE BEING ON THE WARM SIDE AT THIS TIME.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SURFACE RIDGE REMAINS IN CONTROL THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK
WITH NORTHEAST SURFACE FLOW PREVAILING. TEMPERATURES WILL
GRADUALLY WARM TO NEAR NORMAL. MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE INDICATES
SHORTWAVE ENERGY EVOLVING INTO A CLOSED LOW OFF THE SOUTHEAST
ATLANTIC COAST BY TUESDAY. A COASTAL TROUGH COULD BECOME BETTER
DEFINED...SPREADING SOME ADDITIONAL MOISTURE INTO THE FAR EASTERN
ZONES. OTHERWISE...THIS SYSTEM WOULD LIKELY ENHANCE THE SURFACE
RIDGING OVER MOST OF THE AREA. RAIN CHANCES MAY RETURN BY WEDNESDAY
OR THURSDAY IN THE COASTAL PLAIN IF THE UPPER LOW RETROGRADES WEST.
THERE IS MUCH UNCERTAINTY WITH THIS...SO KEEPING CONDITIONS DRY FOR
NOW.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF WILL GRADUALLY DETERIORATE TO
MVFR CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON. MEANWHILE PERIODS OF IFR CEILINGS
ARE POSSIBLE IN THE WEST WITH HEAVIER RAIN SHOWERS. AS LOW-LEVEL
FLOW VEERS AROUND TO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWESTERLY RAIN CHANCES WILL
BECOME MORE SCATTERED AND SHOWERY IN NATURE. THE GFS WANTS TO
GENERATE AN 850 MILLIBAR LOW OVER THE FAR NORTHWEST PIEDMONT LATER
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WHILE THE NAM KEEPS THIS FEATURE AS A
WEAKER OPEN WAVE. THIS RESULTS IN THE GFS BRINGING IN 35 TO 40 KNOT
SOUTHWEST FLOW AS LOW AS 925 MILLIBARS INTO THE NORTHWEST PIEDMONT
BY 21Z TODAY WHILE THE NAM KEEPS 15 KNOT SOUTHEAST FLOW AT 925
MILLIBARS IN THE NORTHWEST PIEDMONT UNTIL 03 TO 06Z TONIGHT...AFTER
WHICH FLOW AT THIS LEVEL TURNS TO THE SOUTHWEST AT 20 KNOTS.
NEEDLESS TO SAY...THIS IS QUITE A DIFFERENCE IN THE LOW LEVEL SHEAR
PROFILE... AND IF THE GFS IS RIGHT...THEN LLWS MAY BE A POSSIBILITY
AT THE GSO/INT TAF SITES LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

VFR CONDITIONS WILL RETURN BEGINNING LATE SATURDAY MORNING...
SPREADING FROM THE NORTHWEST TO THE SOUTHEAST AS HIGH PRESSURE AND
ACCOMPANYING DRY AIR NOSES INTO THE AREA AND PUSHES A FRONT SOUTH
AND EAST OF THE REGION. THIS WILL RESULT IN VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK. -VINCENT

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...CBL
NEAR TERM...CBL
SHORT TERM...RLH
LONG TERM...RLH
AVIATION...CBL/VINCENT

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
508 AM EDT FRI SEP 14 2007

NCZ007>011-021>028-038>043-073>078-083>086-088-089-150915-
PERSON-GRANVILLE-VANCE-WARREN-HALIFAX-FORSYTH-GUILFORD-ALAMANCE-
ORANGE-DURHAM-FRANKLIN-NASH-EDGECOMBE-DAVIDSON-RANDOLPH-CHATHAM-WAKE-
JOHNSTON-WILSON-STANLY-MONTGOMERY-MOORE-LEE-HARNETT-WAYNE-ANSON-
RICHMOND-SCOTLAND-HOKE-CUMBERLAND-SAMPSON-
508 AM EDT FRI SEP 14 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

MOISTURE SURGING NORTHWARD AHEAD OF THE THE REMNANTS OF HUMBERTO
WILL LIFT OVER A NORTHWARD RETREATING WARM FRONT OVER CENTRAL
NORTH CAROLINA TODAY AND TONIGHT.

INSTABILITY IS MINIMAL...HOWEVER ISOLATED SEVERE WEATHER CAN NOT
BE TOTALLY RULED OUT THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.